Handicapper, partner in Shooting Star Stables, Value investor, Knicks fan, pool player and lover of freedom.
Queens NY
Joined November 2009
- Tweets23K
- Following1.1K
- Followers1.5K
- Likes48.1K
classhandicapper retweeted
KAT's postgame interview was like listening to a TED talk. Give this a listen:
On figures:
1. There are huge speed figure differences between the major figure makers every day.
2. People notice "suspect" figures when the adjustment was huge, but other smaller potentially legit figure issues happen all the time but go unnoticed & unadjusted.
1
172
classhandicapper retweeted
He ran the closing stages of a steadily-run Arc faster than all bar the winner and Varandir despite having little room to manoeuvre. His biomechanics (striding, sectionals) have always suggested he might be really special one day.
Anyone have any good ideas why Benvenuto Cellini was the betting "favorite"?
Good horse & connections, Moore stayed on instead of Diamond Necklace but that horse got bet less than Diamond Necklace in the Arc & finished behind 2 Arc runners. Not much public handicapper support.
22
10
6,183
Someone is going to have to explain to me how Emphatic wasn't the favorite off the fastest race against the best opponent.
3
6
992
Which category do most of these BC scratches fall into.
0%legit unfortunte injuries
64%overly cautious vets
27%overly cautious HISA rule
9%best interests of racing
11 votes • Final results 156
The Magnitude scratch could seriously change the pace scenario of the Classic. Now it looks like Napoleon Solo and Kightsbridge 1-2 and not needing to do more than lead/stalk with Forever Young a couple of lengths off them.
3
15
1,935
One of the toughest situations for me to "value" is when I am downgrading a horse off a perfect setup last time, but the horse figures to get another great setup today.
Same with upgrading a horse that had it tough last time but figures to have it tough again today.
3
7
471
No disrespect, but you can't price racing as a gambling product that's competitive with sports or cards & have a functioning industry as long as the cost structure is what it is now. That takes us into a conversation idealists don't want to accept.
A gambling game that is desirable and properly priced attracts new money.
As I said, “if racing gets bigger and better” with new interest from above then everything becomes less of a problem or not a problem.
Efficiency in markets always increases with growth.
143
Poker is more efficient than it was years ago, but there are LEVELS of EFFICIENCY. You can move up/down the limits to find the profitable level for you. In racing, you are competing in one pool against CAWs & the best traditional players. LESS efficient pools attract new money.
Running Knightsbridge in th BC Classic is easily the correct move. You never know how various speed horses are going to break or what jockeys are going to do. He could wind up with a neutral pace. Even 2nd in the Classic is worth more than 1st in the Mile.
4
151
The “Human Resistance”
Hey @grok give me 15 jobs that won’t be taken over by AI in the next 30 years.
Name them in order of necessity.
3
143
@derby1592
I'm warming up to Golden Tempo.
1. 3 YO crop seems to be developing.
2. Only 2 horses to race out of the Travers came back to win.
3. He was probably short in the Travers due to missing his prep & may have raced on least favorable inside path that day. (1)
1
3
203
This is from QE1, QE2... They buy a bunch of treasuries, flood the world with liquidity to lower rates, much of the money winds up on the Fed's balance sheet as excess reserves & then these maniacs pay interest on it to keep it at the Fed so we don't have even worse inflation.
Here is what most Americans have never been told: Between 2013 and 2025, 39% of the Fed’s interest-on-reserve payments, roughly $235 billion, went to foreign or majority-foreign-owned banks. About $10 billion went to Chinese banks alone.
It’s time to conduct a full audit of the Fed so we know where our money is spent.
1
93
So now we are skipping the Juvenile because it's too much to ask of a 2YO aiming for the Derby, Preakness because it comes back too soon after the Derby, and Belmont when it's 12F because breeder's don't care about that much stamina anymore. hmmn
5
22
1,389
Hughes got a 100 Beyer for the American Pharoah. I'm not sure if that means he jumped up or TG had his last figure right and others had it too slow (I'll do some research on that day), but either way he looks a lot better now.
I'll wait on the figures for the American Pharoah today because TG has Hughes quite a bit faster than Beyer or TFUSA off the last (a 1 on TG), but that CA group looks highly suspect to me after the way Phone Booth got bet and ran at KEE.
2
3
538