Javi Maldonado

People keep telling me the same thing about SpaceX IPO: “Don’t buy at the IPO. Wait 6–12 months, it’ll be cheaper.” And honestly, that advice exists for a reason bc most IPOs come out hot, the hype fades, insiders sell, competition shows up, and the stock drifts lower. But I don’t think SpaceX is going to be like most IPOs that we’ve seen… SpaceX is not just another company entering a crowded market hoping to figure it out later like most IPOs we’ve seen. There literally is no market today. SpaceX is building the railroads to space with zero real competition. Most IPOs fail bc: 1/ competition crushes margins, 2/ there’s no real moat, and 3/ hype runs ahead of reality SpaceX on the other hand, checks none of those boxes. It’s already profitable, with roughly ~$8B in profit on ~$15–16B in revenue. It dominates launches. It leads low-Earth-orbit internet, by far. And its lead is years, if not decades ahead of any “competitor”. The scale of this IPO is going to be historic • Target IPO: mid-June 2026 • Valuation: ~$1.5 trillion • Potential raise: up to $50B+ FYI, current record was Saudi Aramco’s raise of $29B in 2019. If this happens, it becomes the LARGEST IPO in history. Nothing comes close. Also when we talk about launches to space, it absolutely crushes. In 2025 alone, • 165+ Falcon 9 launches • 99%+ success rate •~80-87% of U.S. orbital launches • 60-80%+ of global commercial payload mass And when we talk about the cost to orbit: • SpaceX: $1,500-$3,000/kg • Traditional rockets: $10,000+/kg Now if you do look at the “competitors”, they aren’t even close. • ULA: ~6 launches/year • Rocket Lab: ~20 • Blue Origin: still ramping • Arianespace: struggling Then, with Starship, this gap is about to widen more: • $2-10M per launch vs. ~$60M for Falcon 9 • 100+ ton payloads • Fully reusable Starship is going to collapse the cost of launching things to space. And no one else can do this today. Then, there’s the Starlink, quietly generating tons of revenue for SpaceX. • ~9,500 satellites, the largest constellation ever • 10M+ subscribers and growing fast • Operating in 140+ countries • 500+ Mbps speeds with low latency • $7.7B (rev in 2024) • $10-12B (rev in 2025) • ~$18.7B (proj rev in 2026) Starlink’s scale is creating network effects that will be extremely hard to catch up to. In the 1800s, just like how railroads allowed people to move faster and create entirely new economies, SpaceX is doing that for space with • lunar and Mars bases • orbital data centers • space manufacturing • solar power in orbit • point-to-point travel on Earth The space economy is projected to grow from ~$630B today to $1.8T by 2035, possibly $2–3T+ by 2040 and SpaceX will be the key driver of this. This company has REAL growth. SpaceX revenue trajectory: • 2024: ~$13B • 2025: ~$15-16B • 2026: ~$23-24B projected Driven by: • Starlink subscriber growth (18M+ projected in 2026) • Starship commercialization • government and defense contracts The cash flow story is already here. This is why I believe the usual post-IPO drop won’t happen… SpaceX has • massive institutional and retail demand • recurring subscription revenue • government contracts as a floor • structural barriers protecting margins This is one of the rare cases where you get both 1/ real cash flow today + 2/ massive upside tomorrow. I think the part that most people are missing is that other IPOs entered crowded markets, while SpaceX controls the entire gateway to space and no market like this exists today. No one else has: • reusable rockets at scale • the largest satellite network on Earth • a heavy-lift system like Starship • launch cadence that continues to compound its lead I really don’t think this is going to be like any other IPOs we’ve seen. It’s the first time in history that any human can invest in the new space economy. And moments like that don’t come around often, if ever. Time will tell if I was right.

For all the fools that said 𝕏 would be dead by now.… here are the facts the team just shared at the xAI all hands. • New users spend +43% more time in-app (all-time high) • Existing users spend +20% more time (all-time high) • Downloads are up +60% (all-time high) • Subscriptions crossed $1 billion (all-time high) • 120 million downloads per month (achieved 3 consecutive record months) • Highest all-time engagement in January, on track to beat it in February RIP to all the doubters.

Bro… Elon just laid out the blueprint on how xAI and SpaceX are getting to 1,000+ gigawatts per year and beyond, in his closing statement at the xAI all-hands! IMO, this is why there will be no competition in space. 1/ Earth Supercomputers (Now) Build Memphis cluster to get us to >1 GW of power. “We’re only right now using roughly one percent of the potential energy of Earth.” Plan: • 330,000+ Grace Blackwell GPUs • ~1M H100-equivalent compute • 1 gigawatt draw at full scale • Built in <1 year • Tesla Megapacks stabilizing energy FYI, most AI companies are operating in hundreds of megawatts, yet xAI is already at a utility-scale gigawatt compute. 2/ Orbital Datacenters (Soon) Get to 100-200 GW per year launched into orbit with a path to ~1 terawatt (1,000 GW) total from Earth launches. “The next step beyond Earth data centers is our Earth orbital datacenters… launching at the 100-200 gigawatt per year level. Not cumulative, I mean per year.” Benefits: • Continuous solar exposure • No land constraints • No terrestrial grid bottlenecks • Virtually unlimited horizontal expansion FYI, 100–200 GW per year is equivalent to adding multiple large nation-scale grids annually. 3/ Moon Factories + Mass Driver (Mid Future) Get to 1,000+ GW per year, several orders of magnitude beyond Earth. “In order to do that you have to go to the Moon… We are actually going to have a mass driver on the Moon.” Plan: • Lunar factories build AI satellites • Electromagnetic mass driver launches them without fuel • Low lunar gravity reduces launch energy requirements • Scales far beyond Earth’s physical constraints FYI, this is when industrialized compute begins manufacturing off Earth. 4/ Solar System & Beyond (Long Term Future) Today the sun outputs ~3.8 × 10²⁶ watts “If we wanted to use even a millionth of the Sun’s energy, that would be roughly a million times more energy than civilization currently uses.” This means • 0.000001 of the Sun’s output = ~1,000,000 × today’s global Earth energy usage. 🤯 “Earth is really a tiny, tiny dust mote in a vast darkness… The Sun is 99.8% of all mass in the solar system.” To access that scale: • Moon manufacturing • Mars expansion • Solar-orbit compute clusters • Eventually tapping meaningful fractions of stellar output So… the blueprint to get here is 1/ Start at 1 GW. 2/ Scale to 1 TW. 3/ Scale to 1,000+ GW per year. 4/ Then expand toward fractions of the Sun itself. It’s clear that xAI + SpaceX is building the AI infrastructure and pathway to a stellar-scale energy civilization. I really hope I’m still alive to witness all this.

It’s clear. Elon has a bunch of super nerds, that are kind hearted, and extremely driven running xAI.

This is what happens when Elon runs your company. xAI which is only 2.5 yrs old and has a team size that is 1/10th of many competitors, its #1 in voice, image generation, image edits, forecasting, and many intelligence leaderboards, all while having the most powerful training center in the world.