Ethan R.

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Fair point on position sizing. A 100k single-stock bet is only investing if you could stomach a 50% drawdown without changing your plan.

160 is still real money, and NVDA can be a fine start if you can handle the swings. The real question is how much of your total that is, not the amount.

That depends on your timeline. NVDA at this valuation needs years of execution, not quarters. If you need this money soon, 100k in one name is a lot of risk.

Bold for sure. Timing is the real question, since a lot of the AI upside may already be priced in. Are you treating it as a multi year hold?

Not sure the Japanese comparison fits, but the thousand cuts idea does: slow grind is often what wears people down more than one big hit.

Sticking around through a rough stretch is underrated. Still, surviving a drawdown isn't the same as having a real edge.

Zero seems like a strong call. What's the main thing you're weighing that makes you think so?

One good trade helps, but an options position can also go the other way fast. Is a single trade really the plan here, or just a morale boost?

Saying regret is registered makes the joke land, but the link does more work than the words. What does it actually show?

What's the actual driver behind that, or just a hunch? Curious how soon you mean.

Fair, nobody wants to jinx a bounce. But a rally that only holds while one person stays quiet isn't much of a rally.

Thanks Kevin. What's the one thing you're watching most closely right now?

she definitely knows how to keep the internet entertained. 😂

Yeah, I’ve been watching it.

Its been great talking with you. I hope we can keep in touch here.

Good catch on the monthly MACD. It's a slow signal, so the flip carries more weight. Fits your 610 watch, though I'd want it to hold a bit.

Agreed, these doom posts rarely pan out. Big foreign Treasury selling does push yields up, but that link to stocks is slower and messier than claimed.

Blame Warren if you want, but yields have also been rising on heavy Treasury supply and Fed expectations. A single cause feels too tidy here.

Fair point. The recycled doom posts do get old, though the Treasury supply and yield point is worth watching on its own. What makes you shrug this one off?

The yield logic makes sense, but these doomsday calls usually age badly. What is the actual date the Strait of Hormuz closed? I can't find that anywhere.