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Understanding The Hormuz Risk Premium in Global #LNG 1/ The Strait of #Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for LNG. ~90 bcm/year (≈ 8.8 bcfd) of LNG from Qatar & UAE passes through it — roughly 20% of global LNG supply. On average, 6–8 LNG tankers/day transit the strait. 2/ Despite decades of tension, Hormuz has never been fully closed to LNG shipping — even during wars and major regional crises. A full shutdown would also cripple Gulf exporters, making it a last-resort (“nuclear”) option. 3/ Markets still price a Hormuz risk premium. Why? #Qatar & #UAE LNG have no alternative export routes, so even threats raise LNG prices via higher insurance, freight rates, and supply-loss risk — especially for JKM (Asia) and TTF (Europe). 4/ A real disruption would be severe: losing ~20% of global LNG would tighten supply fast. Asia would be hit first, Europe would feel knock-on price spikes, shipping rates would surge, and buyers would scramble for US LNG and other marginal supply. Read the full analysis here: comdty.ai/p/understanding-th… #ONGT #energy #natgas

Rapid Research: Europe’s New Russia Oil Sanctions: What They Mean for Diesel, Jet Fuel, and Price Risk 1. Expanded Import Ban: Russian-Origin Crude in Third-Country Products 2. Key Exemptions and Carve-Outs 3. Key Impacts on Imports (Jet Fuel & Diesel) 4. Market Impact from Additional Sanctions (as of Jan 2026): comdty.ai/p/europe-s-new-rus… #oil #OOTT #energy

Winter Storm Uri Recap: How a Historic Cold Snap Crippled Texas’ Energy System comdty.ai/p/winter-storm-uri… #natgas #ONGT #OOTT

Rapid Report: Freeze-Offs in Focus - What Really Moves Marcellus & Utica Supply 1️⃣ Highest freeze-off risk = SWPA & WV Wet gas and older gathering systems make them most vulnerable. Ohio Utica is moderate risk; NEPA is lower risk but not immune. A multi-day Marcellus/Utica freeze-off would be bullish for regional prices and Henry Hub. 2️⃣ Weather is turning supportive for freeze-offs The 8–14 day outlook points to below-normal temps across the Midwest and Northeast, raising late-January risk. No major events yet this winter — but risk is elevated, especially in SWPA/WV. 3️⃣ What drives duration Short freezes + fast warmups = same-day recovery. Prolonged cold, wet gas exposure, power issues, and slow field response = multi-day production losses. 4️⃣ January 2025 reminder Arctic cold drove a major event. Peak losses reached ~9 Bcf/d (Jan 16), with most volumes back in 2–3 days. SWPA and WV were hit hardest. #natgas #energy #production #marcellus comdty.ai/p/freeze-offs-in-f…

PJM 2026 Forecast: The Load Is Coming (Delayed, Not Denied) comdty.ai/p/pjm-2026-forecas… PJM 2026–2030 Load Forecast: Key Takeaways PJM’s 2026 Long-Term Load Forecast (Jan 2026) projects RTO-wide summer peak load to grow at 3.6%/yr (10-yr avg), reaching ~222 GW by 2036 (up ~66 GW from today). Winter peak load is forecast to grow even faster at 4.0%/yr, reaching ~205 GW by 2036. Net energy for load is expected to increase by 4.8%/yr over the next decade. Change vs. Prior Forecast: Near-term (2026–2032) peak demand was revised down by 0.7–2.6% vs. last year, mainly due to:Stricter vetting of large load (data center) requests Softer economic/EV adoption assumptions Long-term growth remains robust, with the main risk being the timing of large load additions, not the magnitude. #PJM #natgas #Power

Haynesville Curtailment: The Multi-Bcf Question comdty.ai/p/haynesville-curt… Public: Expand Energy (EXE): Largest US gas producer, ~3.2 Bcf/d Haynesville. 2026 capex guided for “maintenance mode” unless prices rise “materially higher” than $3.50/MMBtu. No plans to add rigs at current strip. Comstock Resources (CRK): ~4–6 rigs, focus on Western Haynesville. Aggressively reducing D&C costs (now ~$31M/well). 2026 plan is “hold acreage,” with TILs and pad size flexible to price. No 2026 volume growth unless strip >$4. BP: All have cut rigs or deferred TILs in 2025; BP is considering adding rigs if $4+ strip holds for 2026. Private: Aethon Energy: Largest private, 7 rigs, “maintenance mode” in 2025/26. Explicitly requires $5/MMBtu for growth. GEP Haynesville II, Tellurian: Focused on core; breakevens $2.70–$3.20/MMBtu. No growth at sub-$3.50/MMBtu.

The Strait of Hormuz: Global Oil’s Most Critical Chokepoint Explained comdty.ai/p/the-strait-of-ho… #OOTT #Oil

Golden Pass LNG hits major milestone: first cool-down cargo arrived Dec 2025. 3 trains (total 2.4 Bcf/d) ramping up through early 2027. Bullish for US gas—feedgas demand rising, tightening Gulf Coast basis. Initial exports likely to Europe, shifting to Asia as demand rebounds. comdty.ai/p/golden-pass-the-… #LNG #ONGT #Natgas #energy #JKM #TTF

NOAA ENSO Update: Transition from Weak La Niña to Neutral comdty.ai/p/noaa-enso-update…