$GOOGL just doubled Google Cloud revenue to $30.7B, and the stock still fell about 7% after hours. Total revenue of $127.58B came in a touch under estimates, GAAP EPS of $2.12 took an $8.7B hit from equity losses, and $51.4B of quarterly capex pushed free cash flow negative. Tonight the market is looking at the spend, not the growth.

$MSFT just put up a clean beat, with revenue of $92.28B vs $90.63B expected and Azure up 48% ex-FX. The surprise is capex at $39.4B, well under the roughly $46B the Street had penciled in. More cloud growth on less spend is exactly what the AI capex worriers wanted to see, and shares are up about 5% after hours.

The Fed held at 3.75% to 4% as expected, but the 10-2 vote is the story. Cook and Hammack both wanted another hike today, and the market now prices about 85% odds of one in December. $SPY $TLT

The "just buy the S&P, you don't need anything else" crowd had a decent year. $SPY up 14%. Taiwan is up 69%. Korea is up 62%. Even Japan beat it. Home bias feels safe right up until you check what you missed.

$HOOD missed on both lines tonight, with adjusted EPS of $0.51 vs $0.55 expected and revenue of $1.42B vs $1.43B. Revenue still grew 12%, but shares are down about 5% after hours. When the bar keeps rising, a near miss reads like a real one.

$V beat on revenue by about $10M on a $12B quarter, which is basically in line. EPS of $3.48 vs $3.44 and 74.2B processed transactions look solid, but the stock is slipping after hours anyway. At this size, matching the bar isn't the same as clearing it.

Five of the Magnificent 7 are losing to the boring equal-weight S&P 500 this year. $TSLA is down 13%, Meta down 4%, Alphabet basically flat. Everyone paid up for the 7 stocks that "can't lose". The other 493 quietly did the work.

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Most risk factors say competition could hurt margins. Anthropic's S-1 says the entire insurance industry might not be big enough to cover what could go wrong. Bold choice for a sales document.

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What to watch. SpaceX's record $85.7bn IPO is the bar it gets measured against. And the mood in AI infrastructure is shaky, with $CRWV and $NBIS both down over 30% in October.