Open source COVID19 projection tracker | Collecting and visualizing current and historical forecast data | Sources: @IHME_UW & @LosAlamosNatLab
Joined April 2020
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Covid Projections retweeted
This will go down in history as one of science and medical research's greatest achievements. Perhaps the most impressive.
I put together a preliminary timeline of some key milestones to show how several years of work were compressed into months.
Covid Projections retweeted
If you live in Pennsylvania and you voted by mail, please visit pavoterservices.pa.gov/Pages… and confirm your ballot status is listed as "Vote Recorded." I have found one friend whose ballot was never received and another whose ballot was "canceled" by the county. 1/8
Covid Projections retweeted
We are quickly heading for all-time highs for new covid cases. Test positivity and hospitalizations are up. Multiple states have infection rates on par or exceeding AZ/FL/TX in the summer. We are again headed in the wrong direction at top speed.
Covid Projections retweeted
🚨I wrote a new piece about the 9 errors of intuition that people keep making during the pandemic, trapping us in a spiral of bad decisions & policies. This is a guide to thinking about the crisis & breaking free from that endless loop. 1/
theatlantic.com/health/archi…
Covid Projections retweeted
It’s august, & i’m more afraid of whats going to happen over the coming months than at anytime since i saw the first covid report on dec 31.
in feb, i thought the failure to act was slowness. in april, i thought it was incompetence. i dont know how to process that it was malice.
Covid Projections retweeted
The Reich Lab is hiring a full-time software engineer (remote ok) to help us with the #COVID19 Forecast Hub! covid19forecasthub.org/
Please help spread the word.
Apply here: careers.umass.edu/amherst/en…
Covid Projections retweeted
THINK LIKE AN EPIDEMIOLOGIST:
The chart below is tests per 1000 people. Relative to other countries, the United States is doing a lot of testing. So why do public health experts say that testing is inadequate in the US?
A thread. 1/7
Source: ourworldindata.org/coronavir…
Covid Projections retweeted
Early in the pandemic, there were clear signals from China and Italy about impact of uncontrolled COVID-19 transmission. Now there are signals from multiple countries about what happens if measures are substantially relaxed. It would be profoundly naive to ignore them.
Covid Projections retweeted
I've made a major update to covid19-projections.com that tries to better account for the increase in cases and the resulting lag in reported deaths.
I believe new infections have likely peaked, and deaths will likely peak within the next 1-3 weeks.
Covid Projections retweeted
It is critical to amplify the message from @ResolveTSL, @DrTomFrieden and others to change the paradigm about what metrics we should be looking at to help get us out of the #Covid_19 crisis in the US.
preventepidemics.org/covid19…
Covid Projections retweeted
To be fair, the original @IHME_UW models Dr. Birx referenced were later shown to have a flaw that caused it to consistently underestimate deaths on the tail end of the curve.
Birx placed undue optimism in a flawed model. But there is plenty of blame to go around.
Dr. Debbie Birx was the chief evangelist for the idea that the threat from the virus was fading. She would roam the the White House, passing out diagrams to bolster her case. “We’ve hit our peak,” she would say, a message that would find its way to Trump. nytimes.com/2020/07/18/us/po…
Covid Projections retweeted
🚨This is what's keeping me up at night: What if a second pandemic happened on top of the current one? Here's an attempt to answer that question. The longer the US struggles against one virus, the more vulnerable it becomes to others. 1/
theatlantic.com/health/archi…
Covid Projections retweeted
Let’s call this out: This is an outright and full blown Antiscience disinformation campaign coming out of the White House. I’ve got the bow tie on and I’m ready for battle.... usatoday.com/story/opinion/t…
Covid Projections retweeted
People keep saying that the pandemic won't go away until we have a vaccine.
That's incorrect. The pandemic won't go away until the majority of us are vaccinated.
A subtle but key distinction in light of the logistical challenges of deploying a new vaccine at scale.
.@edyong209: “A country that, 7 months into a pandemic, still cannot ensure that its healthcare workers have enough gowns and gloves and protective equipment is not going to be able to distribute a vaccine in an efficient way. It simply isn’t.”
Covid Projections retweeted
A surge in cases is now a surge in hospitalizations. Sadly this will be followed by a surge in deaths. I can’t believe we have allowed this to happen again.
Covid Projections retweeted
🚨I wrote about the mental and emotional toll that the pandemic is taking on public health experts, who’ve been running on fumes for months, and who are deeply frustrated with shouting empirical advice into a political void. 1/ theatlantic.com/health/archi…
Covid Projections retweeted
THINK LIKE AN EPIDEMIOLOGIST: There are more new confirmed cases each day in the US than at any time during the earlier April peak. But is it really meaningful to compare those numbers? How do epidemiologists decide when to sound the alarm? A thread. 1/11
Covid Projections retweeted
Today I am open-sourcing the SEIR simulator behind the YYG / covid19-projections.com model.
If your system supports Python, you can generate your own simulations in under 5 minutes.
github.com/youyanggu/yyg-sei…
