Telegram community: @cryptobzzi | Polymarket trader | AI lover | Landing: https://nitter.gq/t.co/bOx7hGe6Af
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Joined March 2024
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October AI markets on Polymarket are closed. Let’s look where I made money last month.
1) Best Chinese model in October
Early in the month Xiaomi's MiMo V2.6 Pro jumped into the Text Arena top 12 with 1491 and passed every Chinese model. It held that lead the whole month but the market never fully believed it would stay there (everyone was waiting on new Chinese releases), so the price kept floating around 50 to 60%.
I started building position right after Xiaomi landed in the top. Moreover I decided to build multi position with 2 legs. Xiaomi leg was the main size (avg entry ~60% or a bit lower). Alibaba leg at ~20% as a hedge (Qwen 4 rumors ran for half the month and I didn't want it flipping Xiaomi). Whole position cost ~82 cents.
2) Second best Chinese company
Came in late here, about a week before the market close. Alibaba was trading ~85% and the risk was Alibaba dropping a new model in the last days and reshuffling everything. But the clock was tight (a model like that needs time to debut on Text Arena), the weekend was coming and the chance of a release landing in time was close to zero for me.
Couple days later Alibaba officially confirmed new models drop this week. Doubts gone and the market turned into a full bond you could keep adding to at 90%. Only thing in the way was thin liquidity.
I was also watching Kimi K3.1 Pro but that model is built for agentic work and wouldn't have performed like that on Text Arena.
3) ByteDance and text to video
Found this one by accident while researching other markets. NO on ByteDance having the best text to video model was 89c. So on the leaderboard ByteDance's best model, Seedance 2.0, sits 5th, behind both Gemini Omni models, FLUX 3 Video and Grok Imagine. And the leaderboard hadn't even updated since September 21 (idk why). Mapped out which video models were shipping soon and realized this was a bond too.
November is already loading and I think we gonna have the sensational month because of Fable, Astra and Carbon. So we will have to catch those opportunities.
Moreover Qwen 4 should ship this week and has real odds of breaking out on Text Arena, but no aggressive sizing until I see what they're optimizing for. Just have a look at the Chinese models market.
A phone company is leading the race for the best Chinese model on Arena.
Xiaomi now is up 9 points on Alibaba but the victory in the end of a month isn’t obvious for me.
MiMo V2.6 Pro dropped Sep 21 with open weights under MIT and 46 on the Artificial Analysis index (top open weights model at launch). But on Arena it's still have not much votes and a ±9 band. Qwen3.8 Max has 6x the votes, so its number barely moves.
MiMo's still can (fresh models tend to settle as votes pile up and nobody knows yet which way this one goes).
Alibaba doesn't even need MiMo to slip because they showed the full Qwen 4 lineup at Apsara on Sep 22 said it is in training. If Qwen 4 Max hits the board before the snapshot I think the race resets.
I think in this market we have a battle only between Xiaomi and Alibaba. Xiaomi needs its votes to hold while Alibaba needs to ship.
Made my first political combo on Polymarket.
Almost everything I track points to a strong Democratic year: generic ballot, Trump disapproval at a new high in the same poll, Ohio early vote…
Red counties are early voting like purple ones. So the IA leg just a cheap ticket I wanna try (potentially pays ~9x) and if the wave turns out softer than the polls say, Iowa is where I'd expect to see it first.
Are you trading Midterms?
Trade with me: polymarket.com?via=polymarke…
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As for me, I still can’t log in into my second public account because it «deleted» but I didn’t touch anything after draining event has started.
And I see that my acc is alive and was partially drained too (I interact with this account only via Trust Wallet on the phone). Hope Polymarket team will fix it.
Bizzi retweeted
CAR IS A SCAMMER WHO IS LARPING ABOUT GETTING DRAINED $800,000.
HE TIPPED HIS ALT ACCOUNTS WHEN HE NOTICED WHATS HAPPENING AND STARTED PRETENDING HE GOT HACKED.
ON TOP OF THAT, HE SHARED HIS REF LINK IN THE COMMENTS TO FARM REFFERAL MONEY.
unavailable
Bizzi retweeted
We've identified & fixed an issue impacting our international platform, Polymarket.com. One of our 3rd party providers was compromised, and we have referred this to relevant law enforcement.
Anyone who has been impacted will be made whole.
Out of an abundance of caution, we have temporarily halted trading & are working to bring the platform back online.
ACTIVE DRAIN GOING ON AND THE ISSUE SEEMS TO BE FROM POLYMARKET'S FRONTEND
They are selling positions and draining funds.
For example, look at the activity of this trader.
Don’t sign any contracts now.
We closer and closer to AGI
Humanity's Last Exam was built to be the benchmark AI can't saturate. A year ago the best model was under 40% but nowadays we have minimal 58% leg on Polymarket. And yeah, I think the market is still underpricing outcomes.
The question (also it’s my thesis if you remove the question mark): Does any lab add 2 or maybe even 4 points in the next 9 weeks?
Look at the curve. Gemini 3 Pro sat under 40% last November. Gemini 3.1 Pro pushed it to about 46 in February, Fable 5 to about 53 by summer and now we have 56 (15+ points in 12 months and we are moving more faster than ever).
We are waiting Fable 5.5, Opus 6, GPT 6.1, Gemini Carbon (and probably something nobody is pricing yet).
I don't think the jump stays in coding either, because broad reasoning across math, science and humanities is exactly where these labs are pushing rn.
So I'm buying YES on both 58%+ and 60%+. And I’m sure that one strong frontier drop is enough to resolve this market.
Patience is always a part of the edge.
S-1 filled, so Anthropic will do IPO in 2026.
Caught good entries few days ago at ~78c so we are in profit now. Congrats if you took a position after my previous post.
First limit order filled
S1 still isn't public, I didn’t see any document today and the market is cooling off a bit.
So the price is going exactly where I wanted it and the thesis hasn't changed. As long as there's no actual delay news, every cent lower is just a better entry.
What do you think, does Anthropic list in 2026 or slip into next year?
You see all day those traders are flexing their Dub partners ref rewards from Polymarket. Yeah tbh rewards became so juicy.
polymarket.com?via=polymarke…
I have the only one question: When I can retire?
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First limit order filled
S1 still isn't public, I didn’t see any document today and the market is cooling off a bit.
So the price is going exactly where I wanted it and the thesis hasn't changed. As long as there's no actual delay news, every cent lower is just a better entry.
What do you think, does Anthropic list in 2026 or slip into next year?
Anthropic is about to drop its S1 publicly and Polymarket still can't decide what that means
I've been watching the IPO market for a while. And now I see the market (me too) doesn’t understand a little when this will happen.
Three sources told Yahoo the public S1 could land as soon as this Friday (SEC rules make a confidential filer publish 15 days before the roadshow starts). Bloomberg had marketing starting the week of Nov 9, with the listing aimed before Thanksgiving. Target valuation up to $2T (would beat SpaceX for biggest IPO ever).
But this IPO already slipped, it was supposed to be September (until a researcher quit and a run of safety incidents hit the news). Then October. Now November.
And the draft prospectus: 80b+ in losses in H1 2026, compute commitments that could reach $750B + a risk section saying the models could pose existential risk to humanity. Wall Street is a little bit nervous imho.
But I think Anthropic lists this year. OpenAI pushed its own IPO to 2027 so Anthropic gets the AI IPO spotlight to itself. Btw one investor told Axios the company has simply outgrown private rounds.
But I don't like the actual price at 87c, I would put limit orders at ~84c. Every «AI bubble» headlines or delay rumor shakes out a couple cents and exactly there we can get filled.
Anthropic is about to drop its S1 publicly and Polymarket still can't decide what that means
I've been watching the IPO market for a while. And now I see the market (me too) doesn’t understand a little when this will happen.
Three sources told Yahoo the public S1 could land as soon as this Friday (SEC rules make a confidential filer publish 15 days before the roadshow starts). Bloomberg had marketing starting the week of Nov 9, with the listing aimed before Thanksgiving. Target valuation up to $2T (would beat SpaceX for biggest IPO ever).
But this IPO already slipped, it was supposed to be September (until a researcher quit and a run of safety incidents hit the news). Then October. Now November.
And the draft prospectus: 80b+ in losses in H1 2026, compute commitments that could reach $750B + a risk section saying the models could pose existential risk to humanity. Wall Street is a little bit nervous imho.
But I think Anthropic lists this year. OpenAI pushed its own IPO to 2027 so Anthropic gets the AI IPO spotlight to itself. Btw one investor told Axios the company has simply outgrown private rounds.
But I don't like the actual price at 87c, I would put limit orders at ~84c. Every «AI bubble» headlines or delay rumor shakes out a couple cents and exactly there we can get filled.
🚨 Anthropic could make its IPO filing public as soon as Friday, according to three people familiar with the plans.
The listing could top SpaceX’s June debut as the biggest IPO ever, making it a big test of how much investors still want AI.
Read more: yhoo.it/4dQLXso
