Levered long fake internet money, governance enjoyooor, opinions strictly my own. analyst at crypto fund
Honolulu, HI
Joined February 2018
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Alex Woodard retweeted
HIP-3 deployers are currently in Growth Mode, which means trading fees are discounted by 90%. The next network upgrade will bring changes:
1) HIP-3 fees will be adjustable with a granularity of 90% discount to being 3x more expensive
2) Adjustable on a ticker basis
Hyperliquid
Alex Woodard retweeted
More Michael Saylor antics. And by antics I mean intentionally misleading crap designed to fool the retail investor. In case that wasn’t clear.
First, a 30 day Sharpe is an idiotic concept to start.
Second, you calculate realized Sharpe based on excess return NOT YIELD. Because, you know, sometimes it’s negative.
Third, if you do it (which you still shouldn’t do over 30 days) using returns (as you should over any period you choose) the sign is currently quite the opposite of the sign they present.
Utterly shameful.
Alex Woodard retweeted
Looks like Galaxy Digital $GLXY is set to announce a new data center development project in McGregor, TX.
"McGregor City Council approves new data center plans.. The company building the facility is Galaxy"
kwtx.com/2026/06/24/mcgregor…
Alex Woodard retweeted
Great writeup on $GLXY by @Crypto_Alex17 ... one of the few companies that give you exposure to the both the real growth of blockchain (stables/payments, DeFi, RWA tokenization) and the growth of AI (via its data center, Helios).
Alex Woodard retweeted
MSTR pickle continues: What I laid out 2 weeks ago is still the only viable path to save $BTC and $MSTR in the short-run.
Either sell an enormous amount of BTC and MSTR to help bring $STRC back up near par, and at least buy yourself some time, or continue to watch every part of your cap structure melt because of the uncertainty you've created.
My base case right now:
-70% odds they just keep doing what they're doing, selling small amounts of MSTR every month at non-accretive levels, crushing the stock til it falls to .70 mNAV. This would give STRC holders at least a glimmer of hope, and BTC would be fine, but MSTR would get hammered.
- 25% chance he does the right thing, admits he messed up when he bought back the debt, sells $3-4 bn of BTC, buys a ton of time (marginally good for MSTR, good for STRC, bad for BTC short-term but good long-term)
-5% chance he does the nuclear option -- kills the dividends, letting the prefs fall to 30-40 cents on the dollar, which will close the capital markets to him, but at least shuts off the $1.7 bn per year cash outlay problem, and gives BTC a chance to recover over several years.
FWIW -- MSTR is still trading at 1.15 mNAV using the correct calculation:
$54 bn BTC on balance sheet
+ $1 bn USD cash
- Less $5.2 bn debt
- Less $14.6 bn prefs (including STRC)
= $35.2 bn of unencumbered BTC
$40.4 bn MSTR equity market cap
$40.4 bn / $35.2 bn BTC = 1.15 mNAV
Which means -- MSTR still going a lot lower (should trade at a discount to NAV now).
Only one scenario saves bitcoin:native and $MSTR in the short-term.
Saylor has to come out and say (via Monday's 8K, or next Monday's 8K):
"I sold $4 bn of MSTR and BTC... we now have 2.5 years before we have to raise money again... dividends are covered for 2+ years, debt doesn't mature til sept 2028 (puttable in 2027) and that's easy to refinance via more converts".
If he does that, the market rips, and might even rip 20-30%. It once again makes MSTR uninteresting for years, but that's a good thing. STRC probably goes back close to $100, but he won't be able to sell more. And while capital markets might be closed to MSTR for awhile, it at least buys a ton of time, and in that time who knows what other catalysts might pop up.
He should have done this last week instead of that misguided $2.5mm teaser sale.
If he doesn't, and he continues to just wait it out (only has 5 months), or he sells tiny amounts as he goes (just enough to pay each monthly dividend), this selling won't stop
Still getting the ex-dividend sell-off despite being nowhere close to par.
At this point, it is pretty clear that it is going to take a lot more than small $100m USD reserve fund increases and a 50bp increase to the dividend rate to fix this ship.
Likely going to see $STRC not trade at par by the ex-dividend date for the first time in a while.
They:
1) Removed the USD reserve to buy back 0-coupon bonds (wild decision).
2) Didn't raise the STRC dividend rate today.
Taking the rest of the cap structure down with it.
These are fully backed assets btw, but they are perpetual/Don't need to be paid off unless liquidation, but the company is run by a cult leader
Alex Woodard retweeted
NEW DEEP DIVE -->
A Framework for Valuing Bitcoin Miners as AI Infrastructure
⬇️
Alex Woodard retweeted
Directionally agree with this. We think timeline is longer, the IB is probably worth a little less, and overall multiple will have crypto drag, but $GLXY is still wildly undervalued by all measures based on the data center business alone.
@Crypto_Alex17 nailed the $IREN $WULF and $CIFR thesis for us last year... has nailed GLXY thus far too. He's your guy for understanding crypto companies that have pivoted to AI
Some napkin math on $GLXY.
It's market cap is around $12B.
$GLXY has three core businesses:
> its crypto balance sheet, currently around $3-4b;
> its crypto Investment Banking type business;
> its data centre business.
Essentially, $GLXY already has 800MW approved and leased to $CRWV and has another 800MW approved (@novogratz said we'll learn of the tenant by July hopefully).
If you apply the same margins as their $CRWV deal, that is 2.4B in revenue and 2.16B in EBITDA (90% EBITDA margins). Say you slap a 15x P/ EBITDA, that's $32B on its data centre business alone. Say 1.6GW comes online 2028? So since market is forward looking, that's a FY 2027 price.
It also seems very likely that $GLXY can have 3.5GW come fully online by 2031/2032. Applying the same metrics, that's $5.25b in revenue and 4.725b in EBITDA in 2031/2032 just from the data centre business alone. At15x P/EBITDA that's $70b ($170 per share) in 7 years.
It's crypto IB business is another beast altogether, but I think it can conservatively be valued at $5B (bull $20B).
Conservatively, $GLXY should at least be $5B (IB Business), $30B (data centre, accounting also for 1.9GW more in study), and $3B crypto balance sheet.
That adds up to $38B. $GLXY is trading at $12B now.
I am long $GLXY.
Alex Woodard retweeted
Bitcoin per share (BPS) - which is tracked by Strategy using BTC Yield - went from being their “True North” to a “narrow KPI” in exactly one month.
Insane.
Bitcoin per share (BPS) is our True North. Every day, @Strategy uses multivariate models to optimize capital, equity, debt, and credit decisions to maximize annual BTC Yield (growth in BPS). YTD, we’ve achieved 9.4% BTC Yield and $5.0 billion in BTC Gain.
Alex Woodard retweeted
The crux of the issue with all the gaslighting from the DAT & DiGiTaL CrEdIt salesmen is that they themselves have been aggressively gaslit.
One of the most shocking responses to any critique of these instruments is “he clearly hasn’t listened to the recent earnings calls!”
lol
$MSTR sold 32 Bitcoin for ~$2.5M last week.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
June 1, 2026 Polymarket deemed a "Will Microstrategy sell Bitcoin by May 31st market" as NO, despite Microstrategy filing with the SEC that they did sell 32 Bictoin in the week leading up to May 31st, causing approximately $2M in user losses. Source below for further details.
x.com/willo2_Poly/st…
Alex Woodard retweeted
Never forget $STRC was advertised as a bank account replacement for low and middle income households by @Strategy management team
White collar crime is legal under this administration though. xitter.cf/based16z/status/204247…
