Dave Osterberg Fox13

The long stretch of no hurricanes in the Atlantic is about to come to an end. Unfortunately, the streak will likely end with a landfalling hurricane in the United States. The area of showers and thunderstorms in the southwestern Gulf has become better organized and has developed a closed circulation so we now have the ninth tropical depression of the season. The storm will drift to the east before being picked up by a developing trough over Texas and a building ridge east of Florida. The turn to the north means portions of the northern Gulf coast will see direct impacts from what should be Hurricane Isaias. Conditions in the short term favor intensification, with some reliable models showing the storm becoming a major hurricane before landfall Friday night/early Saturday. Strong vertical wind shear could weaken the storm as it approaches the northern Gulf coast, but we are still looking at an impactful event. The only impacts to central Florida will be an increase in swells along our west coast along with more showers and thunderstorms.

Two areas of interest to watch this week. An area of low pressure continues to drift slowly west in the central Gulf. Surface pressure is still fairly high, but some development is possible as it approaches the Texas/Louisiana coast. I would not be surprised if the NHC starts issuing Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories during the next day or two. A strong tropical wave, which is the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly, is producing heavy rain and gusty winds over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Not expecting much from this system due to wind shear and land interaction. A few models are hinting that there could be some development when it reaches the southeastern Gulf in a few days. There are no signs that this will end up producing major issues, but as always, we will watch it!

Hitting triple digits near the coast in South and Central Florida is extraordinarily rare: #Miami just hit 100°F today—only the second time on record, following July 21, 1942. #Tampa reached 100°F for the first time on record last year on July 17, #Florida

With a strong El Niño established and less than two months remaining in the rainy season, drought relief may have to wait until winter. An expected active subtropical jet stream positioned over the Gulf creates a very high probability of above-average winter rainfall. However, this pattern also significantly increases the risk of severe weather—much like the winter of 1997–98, when a devastating El Niño-driven tornado outbreak claimed 42 lives across #Florida.

One place you definitely DO NOT want to be during a thunderstorm is on an open beach!! Julia Schaefer captured this bolt from a balcony at Madeira Beach. #Florida #lightning

Five for five this month. Total August rainfall so far = 5.50" Normal total August rainfall = 9.03" Already more than half of our normal rainfall for the month and we are just five days in... #Tampa #Florida