Strategic Advisor & Board Director | Fellow at leading security & policy institutions | Former Director, @DCSAgov; sr roles at @NATO, @ODNIgov & @DefenseIntel
Washington DC Metro Area
Joined September 2012
- Tweets592
- Following1.2K
- Followers2.5K
- Likes2.6K
We don't yet know who was behind the cyberattacks on European supermarket refrigeration systems. That matters.
But attribution and protection are different decisions.
My latest for @cepa on operational technology, Russia's shadow war, and the vulnerabilities of everyday life.
cepa.org/article/supermarket…
Accelerating AI adoption without comparable advances in testing and assurance creates operational risk. Important contribution from @scottncohen and Jen Warren on getting that balance right.
It was great writing this piece with Jen Warren, retired Air Force Colonel, on AI safety and verification workflows: thecipherbrief.com/in-its-ra…
A change in Congress is not a change in the presidency. For Europe, the task remains building the capabilities to defend itself and sustain Ukraine while preserving the American partnership.
My latest for @ICDS_Tallinn.
Washington has changed, but Europe's strategic task has not.
The new Congress may offer opportunities for cooperation on NATO, Russia, and Ukraine. But Europe must not mistake political reassurance for strategic predictability.
@DavidCattler explains👇
icds.ee/en/washington-has-ch…
Important reporting by @StevenErlanger on Russia’s shadow war against Europe. The challenge for NATO and its allies is to recognize the broader campaign—not simply respond to individual incidents—and develop a coherent response that imposes meaningful costs.
Appreciated the opportunity to contribute.
Explore this gift article from The New York Times. You can read it for free without a subscription.
How can Europe best respond to Russia's riskier efforts at sabotage? My take.
nytimes.com/2026/10/09/world…
A permanent U.S. base in Poland would signal commitment. Its deterrent value depends on the capabilities it adds—and what happens to the wider U.S. military posture in Europe. My comments to @RFERL.
rferl.org/a/poland-financial…
Ambiguity is part of the weapon.
Russia’s grey-zone campaign exploits uncertainty over attribution, thresholds and response. The challenge for Europe is not simply responding to individual incidents, but restoring deterrence against the campaign as a whole.
Good discussion with @rosenthal_jon Rosenthal for this @TheEconomist piece.
Russia has been staging covert operations and deniable provocations against European countries for many years. In recent months the pace of such shadowy attacks appears to have risen again economist.com/europe/2026/09…
“Make it real. And make it now.”
Defense spending matters—but the real test is whether investment becomes capability, readiness, resilience, and credible deterrence.
Enjoyed discussing this, Ukraine, hybrid threats, and strategic trust with Selwyn Moons and Daniel de Jager for @PwC_Nederland.
pwc.nl/nl/marktsectoren/publ…
Europe is not weak. But latent strength is not the same as usable power.
At #RigaConf2026, I argued that Europe’s challenge is conversion: turning its extraordinary economic, technological, industrial and human capacity into military capability, political resolve and strategic effect—at the speed today’s security environment demands.
For me, that is increasingly the central European security question: not whether the underlying strength exists, but whether we can convert it into strategic effect in time.
Germany’s public attribution of the attempted Leipzig airport attack to Russia matters beyond this incident.
The evidence available publicly appears largely circumstantial. Berlin may know more than it can disclose. But its willingness to attribute despite those limits is significant. 🧵
That lesson still applies to Russia’s activities below the threshold of conventional war.
Deniability should not be confused with reasonable doubt.
Governments should attribute carefully. But Moscow cannot be allowed to make itself immune from consequences simply by making definitive public proof difficult. 3/4
Strategic trust is itself a national-security capability.
That was my central argument at @UNM’s Global & National Security Policy Institute this week.
Democracies don’t suddenly become resilient in a crisis. Crises reveal the resilience—and the trust—we built beforehand.
Grateful to the students, faculty and colleagues who made the discussion and Q&A such a rewarding one.
Iran doesn’t need to strike a NATO ally to achieve strategic effects.
Threatening countries that provide U.S. access and logistics can itself raise the cost of cooperation and test allied cohesion.
I discussed the implications with @EllenEMitchell for @thehill.
thehill.com/policy/defense/6…
America’s alliances aren’t a charitable project or a diplomatic luxury.
They’re one of America’s enduring strategic advantages.
Military power, economic scale, and technology matter. But relationships built over generations create access, resilience, and influence that competitors struggle to replicate.
Trust is strategic infrastructure.
The false choice between Europe and Asia rests on a flawed premise.
For years, American strategy debates have assumed that resources devoted to Europe come at the expense of the Indo-Pacific. But while Washington argues over theaters, Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea increasingly reinforce one another across regions, technologies, and political systems.
Democratic governments need to organize for the world as it is—not as it once was.
My latest for @cepa 👇🏻
cepa.org/article/the-false-c…
Alliances are built on trust, and trust is vulnerable to manipulation. Adversaries have long sought to exploit political divisions within the transatlantic community, often by amplifying genuine disagreements and anxieties.
The challenge for democracies is to ensure that temporary tensions do not erode the strategic relationships on which our collective security depends—while preserving the vigorous debate that free societies require.
Poles are the target of manipulative operations aimed at influencing Polish-U.S. relations. We analyze these efforts, highlighting their high stakes for the whole of NATO. Who is trying to discourage Poles from America and how? Check it out in the text!
FYI: @andrewmichta @wojcikrp @20committee @AshaRangappa_ @EwaThompson1 @grynkewich @general_ben @ReidEdwardII @Roger_Moorhouse @edwardlucas @TulsiGabbard @PeteHegseth @KevinRobertsTX @JJCarafano @officejjsmart @RALee85 @benedictrogers @TomRtweets @leventhal_todd @BLSchmitt @shaunwalker7 @DavidCattler
Democracies will not succeed in the AI era by matching authoritarian systems in speed alone. Their advantage will depend on whether they can integrate AI while preserving trust, accountability, and human judgment.
In my latest piece for @ICDS_Tallinn, Helena Eglit and I examine the challenge of trusted autonomy and democratic decision integrity.
icds.ee/en/trusted-autonomy-…
Good discussion with @NPR’s All Things Considered ahead of this week’s @NATO Summit in Ankara. We discussed why the summit is likely to be judged less by new announcements than by whether Allies can translate years of political decisions, increased investment, and technological innovation into real military capability.
My thanks to Don Gonyea and the NPR team for the thoughtful conversation.
npr.org/2026/07/05/nx-s1-587…
This year, CEPA is proud to recognize @alexstubb, @Borje_Ekholm @ericsson, @mstyslavchernov & Jim Berlin @LogisticsPlus recognized at CEPA Honors in October for their contributions to global freedom, innovation, security, & resilience.
Learn more below! cepa.org/event/2026-cepa-hon…
