Futurist. AGI/ASI by 2030. Posting about AI,AGI,ASI, Singularity, Post Scarcity, LEV,tech & sci progress. 300 000BC - 2029 = Dark Ages. 2030 - Golden Age Begins
Joined January 2022
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Feeling the AGI/ASI, few observations
1. Opus 5.5 really gives strong vibes of AGI (maybe not fully there, but we're very close, like 80%-90%).
For example, few breakthoughs in training humanoids are needed. We need to move this intelligence into physical world.
2. I don't think Anthropic has discovered any magical formula.
3. Which means, SpaceXAI, Google, and others will soon follow. This prediction is based on the amount of compute they already have + additional compute being added all the time.
4. Never was more confident that Anthropic, SpaceXAI, Google, OpenAI, likely Meta, basically all big US AGI labs will have proper AGI in 2027.
5. And from there we'll move quickly to ASI territory (likely also in 2027).
It looks like few GW of compute are enough for strong AGI, now imagine what we will able to do with 10-20GW of compute which are rapidly coming online.
And then with 100GW-200GW...
2027 will be an utterly insane year.
One sufficiently advanced AI model can disrupt an entire industry/industries before most people even notice it exists.
This will only accelerate.
"That's just how life is" is one of the most dangerous lies ever told.
Nothing about how we live was handed down by the universe. It was designed by people. And people can redesign it.
We can build it better, and we will. We already are doing it.
The old world is built on fear and scarcity.
The new, post 2030 world will be built on curiosity and abundance.
It's happening.
Tesla says (in its quarterly earnings report) it has begun producing the first production quality Optimus humanoids at its Fremont factory, with that line eventually designed for 1 million robots per year and a planned Austin line targeting 10 million annually.
When production ramps up, we'll live in a very different world, and this will happen even before 2030.
The 2030s will be an unrecognizable era.
Almost everything expensive in your life is expensive because of human hours: building it, moving it, fixing it, staffing it.
Robots will change that.
Take the human hours out and prices fall toward materials plus energy.
And energy keeps getting cheaper too.
a lot is happening this week...
Anthropic launches Claude Duet, a personal AI assistant that keeps working after you close the app.
Powered by Opus 5.5, it runs on its own cloud computer and takes instructions through text or voice messages.
It can prepare morning briefings from your email and calendar, draft replies, follow up on quiet threads, research companies before meetings, check unpaid Stripe invoices, and create slide decks, financial models and dashboards.
It also uses a cloud browser for websites without connectors and carries over your existing Claude memory, skills and connected apps.
It even supports approved purchases through Link and Shop Pay, while asking before sending messages, making payments, signing documents or deleting anything.
very cool
Mistral and NVIDIA are teaming up to accelerate aircraft, car and chip design by combining AI agents, physics models and GPU powered simulations to automate complex engineering workflows.
Safer world
Hopefully, police forces will have 1000s of them (as soon as possible, when the tech is ready), plus drones in the air.
They will arrive at the scene in seconds in huge flying drones and catch every last criminal and vandal (like the ones we saw recently in France), but in every country, so every criminal and thief will be hunted down and thrown in jail to rot, where they belong.
The world will be a 1000x better place when every one of them has been eliminated from society, at least until we have technology capable of fixing the brains of such people.
It takes hundreds of years to build a great city, but only a few thousand worthless criminals and a few days to ruin and trash it.
This is why it is so important to eliminate these enemies of humanity from society.
Billions of humanoid robots.
Robots will be capable of essentially all economically important tasks by 2029.
The age of human labor is ending. The age of robotic abundance is beginning.
The economic growth we'll see as the humanoid robot workforce expands will be unlike anything in history.
ASI + humanoids. We could see global GDP doubling in just a few years and soon after that, every 12 months.
You will see a global economy 1,000 times bigger in your lifetime.
