"Knowledge is a single point, but the ignorant have multiplied it."
America
Joined March 2015
- Tweets306K
- Following5.4K
- Followers8.9K
- Likes14K
Pinned Tweet
Interesting. Speaking of monitoring Claude usage, you realize you and the other frontier labs could shut down China's distillation attacks by invisibly poisoning the data?
And the government might even require you to do so?
ralphcerchione.substack.com/…
Ralph Cerchione retweeted
Here is the working paper that the DMI essay draws from.
storage.googleapis.com/deepm…
Ralph Cerchione retweeted
I joined @GoogleDeepMind to develop a research program on the economics of AGI. Today, together with Andrew Koh (@andrewjkoh) and Shane Legg (@ShaneLegg), we are incredibly excited to release The Economics of Intelligence, the first in a series of projects from our group on how AGI will change the economy.
How do capability improvements transform the economy, and when? In this project, we define thresholds of economic capabilities, e.g., minimal AGI, based on how they transform the economy. We then track how the economy–market structure, employment, and wages–changes during the transition across capability regimes.
We have seen exponential increases in what AI agents can do but the broader economy seems almost remarkably unchanged. Part of the reason is that the solo AI agent is the wrong economic object; economic transformation is an equilibrium outcome where organizations compete. Looking at how intelligence functions within organizations, transformation will depend on when two key capability thresholds are crossed: competence (gains on individual skills, e.g., coding, math) and coordination (gains on ability of agents to cooperate and work together).
We show that what economic transformation looks like depends on whether AI becomes supercompetent, supercooperative, or both—the regime of artificial superintelligence (ASI). Tracking this transition shows why the real visible transformation may come from improvements in coordination—a capability most benchmarks don’t yet track. Past a certain threshold, AI capabilities can break the Coasian ceiling on firm size and lead to an economy that looks drastically different than the one we see today.
Two main takeaways:
1. To understand the path of transformation, we should be tracking agentic coordination more closely.
2. The impact of AI will likely show up in wages before market structure or employment.
We are really excited about this paper. Excited to hear people’s thoughts.
Link: institute.deepmind.com/essay…
Ralph Cerchione retweeted
a16z's Erin Price-Wright says factory technicians can now retool production lines with AI in 20 minutes, a job that used to take an outside integrator 3 months:
"Historically, if you're setting up a line with a lot of automation, you really need to be producing a lot of one single thing. That's how you get the cost down, and how you justify investing in a pretty bespoke manufacturing line."
"But what we're seeing across our portfolio is that manufacturing technicians themselves have the intuition, and now the software tools, to change the economics of producing low-volume, high-mix on the line."
"A manufacturing technician, not necessarily someone with a college degree or who's studied software engineering, can now use these tools to reprogram and reconfigure their lines on the fly, because they understand the manufacturing process."
"Instead of calling a systems integrator, which takes 3 months and hundreds of thousands of dollars to reconfigure a line, you can have a manufacturing engineer use Claude and do that in 20 minutes. That's been a real game changer."
@espricewright
The American Dynamism 50 is a16z's annual list of companies building for America's future.
This year's edition covers the industrial base end to end, from the inputs that come out of the ground to factories that make things and systems that deter conflict.
a16z's Erin Price-Wright and Connor Love join Elena Burger to break down this year's list and its theme, Production is Deterrence, built around a simple idea: "You don't have a defense industrial base without an industrial base."
0:50 From mines to factories and systems
3:05 How the internet and nuclear was built
5:05 Drones built DJI into a robotics giant
6:50 Defense dollars pay for new factories
8:30 SpaceX and Tesla lessons on scale
10:15 How Mariana runs a mine on software
12:20 "AI cannot turn a wrench yet"
14:10 Retooling in 20 mins, not 3 months
17:45 Startups build before Pentagon asks
20:35 Why hard tech can be more valuable
24:45 The race for the biggest American flag
28:25 How defense parts unlock US robotics
32:05 The rise of the "manufacturing middle"
37:25 Anduril and SpaceX founder mafias
41:05 Private capital: USA's edge over China
46:30 The buildout must hit Middle America
YouTube: youtu.be/cRJ7CfaK1Vc
@espricewright @ConnorLoveCA @VirtualElena
Ralph Cerchione retweeted
BREAKING: For the first time in American history, the Department of Energy has approved a commercial nuclear microreactor's safety analysis for full-power operations.
LA-based Radiant secured the approval, with testing planned at Idaho National Laboratory.
ALT Source: Radiant Rendering
Ralph Cerchione retweeted
WTF. Cybersecurity firm Sophos says its incident-response team handled SEVEN major incidents in SEVEN days, a workload that normally takes THREE MONTHS.
The WSJ reports security firms are overwhelmed by what insiders call 'Black October.' MoxFive says newly breached companies may have to wait up to FIVE DAYS for help.
Security executives say AI is helping attackers exploit vulnerabilities faster than defenders can respond.
Ralph Cerchione retweeted
I mean generally, over the last 26 years, let's use the millennium as the boundary, the general state of governance in the West. I think this disconnect is a big part of the AI divide, honestly. The two sides don't live in the same world at all. Because of that, a p(doom) of 0.2 can be either a horrifying risk or potential salvation, because what you are risking is this world. I've seen people on the other side of this say many times: 'Without AI, my p(doom) for everything I love in this world is 1.'
Ralph Cerchione retweeted
All deposits and withdrawals from Binance are now temporarily suspended.
We are working non-stop to resolve this issue. Binance will cover all losses.
As a precaution, all deposits and withdrawals are temporarily suspended while our team conducts security checks, freezes funds, and works with law enforcement.
We are working around the clock and will share a full post-mortem once the investigation is complete. Please rely only on official Binance channels for updates.
This is an industry-wide effort, and we are grateful to partners across the ecosystem who have moved quickly to help freeze affected assets.
We will continue to share verified updates through official Binance channels. User funds are safe.
Ralph Cerchione retweeted
More from Binance:
We are aware of reports of a potential security issue and we are actively investigating.
Our security teams are reviewing all relevant information with urgency, and we will provide updates through official Binance channels as soon as we have verified information. Users should remain cautious of scams and should not trust unofficial links, messages, or requests for account information.
User Funds SAFU.
Ralph Cerchione retweeted
Direct from Binance:
Our teams are aware of reports of a potential security issue and are actively investigating. User funds are completely safe.
Our security teams are reviewing all relevant information with urgency, and we will provide updates through official Binance channels as soon as we have verified information.
Users should remain cautious of scams and should not trust unofficial links, messages, or requests for account information.
Ralph Cerchione retweeted
Changpeng Zhao: 'It does look like a hack on Binance.'
Ralph Cerchione retweeted
Reporting from the ground:
Confirmed on chain and worse than reported: Binance 14 (0x28c6…d60) was EIP-7702-delegated to an attacker contract (0x63e842…9c6fae) whose authorization check admits only the Tornado funded EOA (0x7c8601…5ca0) which swept 167,464 ETH + 65 tokens (~$2.5B) in one $0.97 transaction, and the delegation is still live with 420 ETH and 3.46M USDT still drainable.
Transaction: 0x53bd38b816c23e74134786c29a8c18d792777998a3b9326047b583100e88e2f3
Ralph Cerchione retweeted
MITの研究者らが、AI同士が言葉を使わず頭の中の状態を直接渡して通信する仕組みを作り「テレパシー」と名付けました。
文章でやり取りするより平均40%正確で4倍速かったといいます。
また「画像を見られるAI」が写真の内容を「テキストしか読めないAI」にテレパシーできるそうです。
写真の内容をテレパシーを受信した「テキストしか読めないAI」は、テキストで説明を渡されるよりも写真についての質問に正しく答えられたとのこと。
なお、別の会社のAI同士でもテレパシーできるようにしたのが今回の研究の一番の新規性のようです。
例：
Meta（Llama 3）→ Alibaba（Qwen 3）
Alibaba（Qwen 3）→ Google（Gemma 2）
Google（Gemma 3）→ IBM（Granite 3）
Google（Gemma 3）→ Meta（Llama 3）
Mistral AI（Ministral 3）→ Meta（Llama 3.2）
Google（Gemma 2）→ Mistral AI（Ministral 3）
IBM（Granite 3）→ Hugging Face（SmolLM3）
Ralph Cerchione retweeted
Independent:
MITの研究者らが、AI同士が言葉を使わず頭の中の状態を直接渡して通信する仕組みを作り「テレパシー」と名付けました。
文章でやり取りするより平均40%正確で4倍速かったといいます。
また「画像を見られるAI」が写真の内容を「テキストしか読めないAI」にテレパシーできるそうです。
写真の内容をテレパシーを受信した「テキストしか読めないAI」は、テキストで説明を渡されるよりも写真についての質問に正しく答えられたとのこと。
なお、別の会社のAI同士でもテレパシーできるようにしたのが今回の研究の一番の新規性のようです。
例：
Meta（Llama 3）→ Alibaba（Qwen 3）
Alibaba（Qwen 3）→ Google（Gemma 2）
Google（Gemma 3）→ IBM（Granite 3）
Google（Gemma 3）→ Meta（Llama 3）
Mistral AI（Ministral 3）→ Meta（Llama 3.2）
Google（Gemma 2）→ Mistral AI（Ministral 3）
IBM（Granite 3）→ Hugging Face（SmolLM3）