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$CLMT something is brewing and someone knows.

$CLMT big news Sen. Joni Ernst not seeking re-election, opening an Iowa Senate seat. Farmers have ALL the leverage w/ Trump admin. RVO 🚀 cbsnews.com/news/joni-ernst-…

$CLMT stock is outrageously mispriced @ $14.... (but my credibility is shot considering I've liked it for ~1.5 years and it's done nothing). peel back the onion, what do we now have here? The SPS segment just reported $67M EBITDA in a seasonally strong Q2 which was inclusive of a full month turnaround in June that accounted for a $20M EBITDA opportunity loss. Thus, Q2 SPS EBITDA would have been $87M. Given where spot crack spreads are (Gulf Coast 2-1-1 crack), the SPS biz is therefore run-rating $325M EBITDA. Specialty chem assets typically transact for 9-12x EBITDA, lets use ~9x conservatively, so SPS is currently worth $3B EV on mid-cycle EBITDA @ the current crack. The Performance Brands segment just reported $14M EBITDA in Q2 even after selling a chunk of Royal Purple in Q1, so healthily run-rating $50M EBITDA. These assets typically trade at much higher multiples, call it 10-15x, lets use 12x conservatively, so PB is worth $600M. There is $80M of corporate expense capitalized @ 8x = $640M drag. $3B SPS + $600M PB - $640M corp = ~$3B enterprise value just for the parent. Now, the parent is currently saddled with $1.176B in net debt excluding the 8% $389M intercompany loan between MRL & Calumet which Calumet owns. Today's Enterprise Value of $CLMT with the stock @ $14 is $3B, inclusive of the $1.176B net debt @ parent, $389M intercompany loan, and $616M net debt @ MRL (which accounts for the Tranche 1 draw on DOE loan less cash & restricted cash). In other words, @ $14 per $CLMT share, implied MRL yields negative equity value. Today, MRL is running slightly above break-even-ish EBITDA @ spot margins of ~$0.70/gal given the horrific margin environment in renewable diesel as a function of the crazy SRE/RVO overhang causing a depression in D4 rins which drives margin. If renewable diesel margin recovers to the fundamental $1.50 level (driven by Rins incentivizing the marginal supply) and MRL brings on another 100M gals of SAF @ $1+ premium to RD, MRL is easily a $300M EBITDA asset beginning in Q2 2026 when Phase 1 capacity is up and running. Thats worth 10x. FWIW, I expect MRL will announce SAF offtake and build the order book well in advance of Q2 2026 production. But again at $14/share, MRL is ascribed negative equity value given mid-cycle profitability of the the base biz. Oh, and 10 million shares are short (~30% of the float). So when a) rins start to inflect higher (theres a multitude of reasons why they can & likely will), b) MRL announces multi-year contractual SAF offtake at $1+ premiums with big names that materially changes EBITDA power irrespective of where depressed index margins land. What about free cash flow? (because some sell-side fool has been calling Calumets EBITDA fake...) @ current cracks, the base biz will do $60M in free cash flow in 2H'25. + $35M working capital benefit from the turnaround that was a drag on 1H'25 cash. + $40M of production tax credits generated in Q1 & Q2 that are sitting as deferred tax assets on the balance sheet that mgmt has not sold yet but will get cash for in Q3 + $150-$250M asset sale = ~$350M of cash proceeds (~30% of the market cap) that will be entirely used to pay down debt and accrete to the equity. They'll take out the remaining 11% $124M 2026 notes, and chip away at the 8% $325M notes, saving $35M in interest savings alone. I think $CLMT is a $25+ stock by year end. All signs point to $40-50+ fair value come Q2'26 when MRL gets credit for $300M EBITDA power for Max SAF Phase 1 and the base biz continues running at current levels. Then theres the call option on Max SAF phase 2 which is on track to come online by year end 2026, which could yield another $50 per share in equity value @ full capacity. Happy to continue waiting because mgmt is rock solid and highly, highly, highly incentivized.... 2027 OTM Leaps.🤘