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Real-time UK local & by-election tracking 🗳️ | Weekly roundups, charts & analysis on YouTube (@ElectionWatchUK - 15.8K subs) | Data-driven coverage

Joined November 2024
🌹LABOUR LEAD GROWS! The "Burnham Bounce" continues as Labour climb in to a 4.5ppt lead over Reform, who slip almost another ppt. The Lib Dems also slide another 0.9ppts dropping in to single figures and Restore appear for the first time on an EW Poll of Polls! Can Labour keep this up? Or, with the budget on the horizon and the whiff of scandal around Burnham, Manchester council and Manchester City's owners, is this as good as it gets for Labour? Follow me to find out what happens over the next two weeks and tune in at 6pm today as I cover the numbers on YouTube! 👉 youtube.com/@ElectionWatchUK 🕕 6pm, Weds 7th Oct
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I’ve been interested by a handful of comments on Friday’s video; people saying they are Restore fans, but WOULD vote for Reform in absence of a Restore candidate. That would disprove my theory that most Restore voters would abstain from voting if there was no RB candidate, rather than vote Reform 🤔 Restore voters: if you were voting and there was a Reform candidate but no Restore candidate, how would you vote?
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🚨NEW! Election Watch Poll of Polls 🌳Tories JUMP 2ppts, now breathing down Reform's neck! 🌹Labour extends the lead to more than 5ppts ➡️ The slide continues for Reform, the Lib Dems and the Greens... Analysis video on YouTube at 6pm! ▶️youtube.com/@ElectionWatchUK
🤖 Made with AI
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I remember a President of a country interfering very publicly in the Brexit campaign and he wasn’t Russian.
Andy Burnham becomes first PM to confirm Russian interference in Brexit referendum @campbellclaret and @RoryStewartUK's exclusive interview with @andyburnham on tomorrow's episode of Leading is out in full at midnight.
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Burnham is very good at framing things that are very agreeable as though he’s being contrarian.
I don't care what anyone says, I believe we can end rough sleeping in Britain. Today is World Homeless Day, and I don't think anyone in this country should be sleeping rough on our streets. Certainly not tonight. That's why one of the first commitments I made as Prime Minister was to end rough sleeping. Not manage it. Not reduce it. End it. And I'm putting over £400 million behind a national drive to get everyone in for Christmas. And to put my own money where my mouth is, I'm making my latest salary donation from my PM salary to The Passage in Victoria, an amazing charity I visited on my very first day in Downing Street. All this will help make sure that every person sleeping rough is offered a route off the street and a safe place to stay because, in one of the wealthiest countries in the world, people should not be left to sleep outside with nowhere to turn. This isn't the finish line. We'll keep building the homes, creating the jobs, and reforming the services to stop people reaching crisis point in the first place. But today, I wanted to say this: we should never accept rough sleeping as normal. Not in Britain, not in 2026, and not while I'm Prime Minister.
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I have work this evening and this result has been declared so late that I haven’t the time to record now, so video tomorrow morning/early afternoon. Suffice to say the theme will be “Everyone vs Reform”!
Kilburn, Denby, Holbrook & Horsley (Amber Valley) Council By-Election Result: 🌍 GRN: 29.5% (+4.0) ➡️ RFM: 27.0% (New) 🌳 CON: 16.9% (-15.2) 🌹 LAB: 15.9% (-6.1) ◼️ RES: 10.8% (New) No Ind (-14.1) or LDM (-6.4) as previous. Green GAIN from Conservative. Changes w/ 2025.
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Taking an age to get a result out of Amber Valley. I have to work this evening, so roundup video may slip to tomorrow if they don’t get a move on! Why does it take so long to count in some places?
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I would think cutting the 47% tax on petrol might be more helpful than being able to see how expensive it is on Google Maps?
I know people are worried about fuel prices. And I get it. You get to the pump, watch the numbers climb, and wonder why it's costing so much more than it used to.   The reality is that global events are pushing up costs, and families here at home are feeling the impact.   But I won't accept that there's nothing I can do to help.   That's why from today, you'll be able to see petrol and diesel prices on Google Maps, compare nearby stations and find the cheapest option before you fill up.   It's a small change, but if there's a practical way to help people keep more money in their pocket, I'll do it.
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Number of seats a party is in the top two: REF: 371 LAB: 336 CON: 304 It really still is all there for Reform; even at this relative high point for the Tories post-2024 they couldn’t get a majority even if they won every seat where they’re currently first and second
More in Common MRP: top two parties in each seat LAB v REF: 179 REF v CON: 163 LAB v CON: 91 CON v LD: 50 LAB v GRN: 43 LAB v SNP: 26 REF v LD: 16 REF v SNP: 13 Other: 50
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This is reprehensible. Utterly unacceptable harassment of political campaigners.
This is what our team is facing as they try to campaign for Restore Britain in Holborn and St Pancras today. It is disgraceful.
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Election Watch retweeted
Council by-election result: Queen's Park, Brighton and Hove, 24 September 2026. Green gain from Labour. Green 50.1% (+26.1) Labour 35.3% (-15.7) Reform UK 7.0% (new) Conservative 4.3% (-3.1) Liberal Democrats 3.3% (-1.3) Changes on 2023. No Independents and others candidate stood (13.1% in 2023). Brighton and Hove council: Conservative 5, Labour 31, Green 12, Ind and others 6.
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Waiting for votes to be counted….
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Election Watch retweeted
It looks and feels spontaneous, but is it? A video of Ed Miliband having an apparently impromptu chat with Feroz Khan, an American social media influencer, on the streets of New York Khan is an American social media influencer who has made a name for himself conducting seemingly impromptu interviews with people he stops in the street with a simple question: “What do you do for a living?” The Miliband clips has already had more than 1million views. But is it real? In fact it has been carefully staged There are several clues. The video shows Khan stopping Miliband in the street as he makes his way between engagements. “Excuse me, you have an amazing outfit,” he tells him. “What do you do for a living?” Rather than walk on Miliband, surprisingly, stops and turns to face the camera. His aides, meanwhile, keep on marching on without even looking back to check who he is talking to. They don’t wait for him, disappearing out of shot Even for a politician, Miliband appears to have rather well-rehearsed answers for Khan’s questions. “Hang on you’re that Feroz guy aren’t you,” he says. “You interviewed JLo once. What are you doing here?” Khan replies with a compliment: “I spread positivity on social media and I happened to come across you well dressed. What do you do for a living?” In a surreal exchange Miliband says he is the foreign secretary of Great Britain. “Please forgive me, I don’t know what that is,” Khan replies “I’m like the Marco Rubio of Great Britain,” Miliband says. What follows is an extraordinarily soft interview on any level. Khan, who sees his job as “spreading positivity”, says: “Nice to meet you. What makes your work so special?” The final clue is in the post itself. Khan posted it on his Instagram in direct “collaboration” with the Foreign Office and Britain’s UN mission, meaning it went up on their Instagram accounts at exactly the same time thetimes.com/article/fd04b25…
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🚨NEW Poll of Polls! Not much movement in the last fortnight. Labour and Reform both drop half a ppt but Tories aren't able to close the gap with any gain of their own. Labour stay in the lead! What do Reform need to do to get back on top? Let me know in the comments 🖋️
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⚠️Technical Issue⚠️ Video is recorded but I ran in to issues trying to upload. I’m out in the capital this afternoon, so will try and fix when I get back! Expect it to be out tomorrow morning. Apologies! EW
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Everyone gets more unpopular 🙃
Approval Ratings (NET) Andy Burnham: 21% (-5) Kemi Badenoch: 5% (-8) Ed Davey: 0% Zack Polanski: -13% Rupert Lowe: -15% Nigel Farage: -18% (-2) Via: Deltapoll Field Work: 11-14 September changes w/ 21-24 August
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Another bruiser for the Tories 🤕
East Markham (Bassetlaw) Council By-Election Result: ➡️ RFM: 49.6% (New) 🌳 CON: 28.4% (-37.6) 🌹 LAB: 17.2% (-4.1) 🌍 GRN: 4.8% (New) No LDM (-12.8) as previous. Reform UK GAIN from Conservative. Changes w/ 2023.
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Election Watch retweeted
East Markham (Bassetlaw) Council By-Election Result: ➡️ RFM: 49.6% (New) 🌳 CON: 28.4% (-37.6) 🌹 LAB: 17.2% (-4.1) 🌍 GRN: 4.8% (New) No LDM (-12.8) as previous. Reform UK GAIN from Conservative. Changes w/ 2023.
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After my unannounced summer hiatus I had expected a few quiet weeks for my videos upon returning… Friday’s video has done almost 40k views over the weekend! As always, thank you all for your support. Really glad to be back. What do you make of the new thumbnail style?
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Election Watch retweeted
Approval Ratings (NET) Andy Burnham: 5% (-9) Kemi Badenoch: 0% (+1) Ed Davey: -3% (+3) Zack Polanski: -23% (-2) Nigel Farage: -26% (0) Via: @OpiniumResearch Field Work: 9-11 September changes w/ 2-4 September
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