Election nerd. @VoteHub contributor and creator of the Election Simulator → https://xitter.cf/t.co/z1MuNRKwEY. Views my own.
Washington, DC
Joined October 2014
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Election Enjoyer retweeted
Excited to announce that @lxeagle17, @Thorongil16, @admcrlsn, and I will host three X Spaces ahead of next Tuesday’s midterm elections to discuss polling, forecasts, early voting, and more. We’ll also take your questions along the way.
We’ll stay flexible on topics, but here’s the rough plan:
Tuesday, October 27 | 8:30–10 p.m.
We’ll break down the state of play in the House and Senate, national polling, demographic trends, and the persuasion and turnout dynamics we’re watching.
Friday, October 30 | 8:30–10 p.m.
With early voting nearly complete across most key states, we’ll discuss what we’ve learned, including a close look at Texas with @Thorongil16. We’ll also talk about what the emerging electorate means for whom candidates need to persuade to win.
Monday, November 2 | 7:30 p.m. – ???
Our final thoughts, a breakdown of key races, and what to watch as results come in Tuesday night. We’ll help you get ready to follow election night like a pro.
Election Enjoyer retweeted
Every time there's a major international election people wonder why the US can't count votes quicker. In the US we don't have national elections. Many states don't even have centralized election reporting systems.
Election Enjoyer retweeted
The early voting blog is updated!
Dem lead in NV above 20,000 ballots and above 5 percent.
Five days of in-person early voting left and after a dominant D weekend, Republicans need it to turn around or a wave is coming.
Lots of data and charts:
thenevadaindependent.com/art…
Election Enjoyer retweeted
North Carolina Early Voting, Day 11 — October 25
🔵 Democratic: 18,033 (46.8%)
🔴 Republican: 5,523 (14.3%)
⚪ Unaffiliated: 14,822 (38.5%)
New ballots: 38,508
Daily Democratic registration margin: D+32.5
Cumulative ballots cast: 1,583,181
Cumulative Democratic margin: D+18.0
Election Enjoyer retweeted
Florida IP Early Voting | Day 7
🔴 Republicans: 600,295
🔵 Democrats: 505,545
⚪ Other/NPA: 275,705
Cumulative GOP Margin
2024: R+25.2
2026: R+6.9
Shift Toward Democrats vs. 2024
Day 1: D+24.4
Day 2: D+23.8
Day 3: D+22.4
Day 4: D+20.4
Day 5: D+19.0
Day 6: D+18.5
Day 7: D+18.4
Election Enjoyer retweeted
Today, Brazil re-elected incumbent president Lula da Silva, who defeated Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro.
Bolsonaro won a plurality of the vote but failed to secure a majority in the first round, which was held three weeks ago.
Election Enjoyer retweeted
Think back to 2006, last midterm w/ an unpopular war/GOP president. Where were the biggest House upsets? Places like IN, IA, KS, MN (Tim Walz!), NH, OH, WI, Upstate NY.
That's why I think the Midwest & places w/ lots of secular white voters are especially ripe for surprises.
Election Enjoyer retweeted
A key factor in Lula’s Round 2 victory: states where he had the highest Round 1 vote shares generally shifted most toward him, and vice versa.
Rio de Janeiro was the biggest outlier: he won 39% in Round 1 but gained 7.4 points, the largest swing of any state.
Election Enjoyer retweeted
O mapa dos swings entre os dois turnos foi o contrário do de 2022-2026 do primeiro turno.
Lula cresceu suas margens quase que universalmente, exceto em alguns locais do interior do Nordeste, quando comparado ao primeiro turno.
Election Enjoyer retweeted
The Election Enjoyer forecast gives Lula da Silva a 100% chance to win.
With that projection, incumbent President Lula defies the odds to secure a 4th term—and becomes the first candidate in Brazilian history to win after trailing in the first round. 🇧🇷
electionenjoyer.com/brazil/a…
Election Enjoyer retweeted
With 56% of votes counted, every state in Brazil is shifting toward Lula compared to the first round. An extraordinary turnaround for the incumbent president.
Election Enjoyer retweeted
Segunda vuelta presidencial Brasil 🇧🇷.
Con el 39,6% de las mesas, Bolsonaro tiene 50,23% de los votos y Lula el 49,83%.
Se comienza a revertir la tendencia alcista de Bolsonaro.
Vía @ElxMapping
Election Enjoyer retweeted
A warning sign for Bolsonaro is the Federal District.
With 76% in, he is up 54.5%-45.5% but he’s not hitting the number he needs here.
In 2022 his father won this 59-41%.
Election Enjoyer retweeted
A district that is very favorable to Lula is Paraíba.
Lula won this in 2022 66%-33%. He is currently leading 69%-30%.
There is almost 25% of the vote in this district so far.
It seems like Lula's places are coming in sooner than other elections, opposite of normal.
Election Enjoyer retweeted
Shift map so far comparing the 2nd round to the 1st round in Brazil (with 2% of votes counted)
electionenjoyer.com/brazil/a…
