Aktien, Indizes, Rohstoffe, Devisen - Tägliche Chartanalysen, Fundamental- und Konjunkturanalysen
FFM
Joined January 2012
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Franz-Georg Wenner retweeted
I always loved this chart from @NDR_Research, which shows that owning the largest stock in the S&P 500 has historically been a terrible strategy, relative to just owning the index.
Franz-Georg Wenner retweeted
Well, that was quick. In just 19 trading days, the Nasdaq 100 $NDX went from an ATH to a 10%+ correction. Only 19 prior drops have happened this fast.
The good news is that it took a median of just 9 more trading days to bottom. Since $QQQ dot com crash, the longest was 21.
ALT Table showing Nasdaq 100 corrections of 10% or more within 20 trading days of an all-time high since 1986. The latest correction reached 10% in 19 trading days on November 2, 2026. Across 19 completed historical cases, the median maximum drawdown was 13.6%, with a median of 9 additional trading days to the bottom and 44 trading days from the trough to a new all-time high.
Franz-Georg Wenner retweeted
ÚLTIMA HORA: GOOGLE GEMINI AHORA PUEDE ANALIZAR CUALQUIER ACCIÓN COMO UN ANALISTA DE WALL STREET (GRATIS).
AQUÍ TIENES 9 INCREÍBLES PROMPTS DE GEMINI QUE REEMPLAZAN LAS TERMINALES DE BLOOMBERG DE $4,000 AL MES:
GUÁRDALO EN FAVORITO📂
Franz-Georg Wenner retweeted
Seven times a Republican President faced a Democratic Congress.
Up 17.5% on average six months later and never lower for the S&P 500. In fact, strong returns across the board.
Franz-Georg Wenner retweeted
For the first time since 2006, Democrats won both the House and Senate in a midterm. Markets had already priced it in as evident by recent derisking.
Fearmongering aside, the S&P 500 $SPX was higher 3 months out in all cases with no 20%+ bear market in the next 6 months.
ALT Historical S&P 500 performance following midterm elections when Democrats gained control of both the House and Senate. The chart shows 12-month price paths since 1950, alongside forward returns and drawdown statistics. In all 11 prior cases, the S&P 500 gained over the following three months, with a median return of 13.3%.
Franz-Georg Wenner retweeted
These next six months are historically the best of the year, but they are even better in a midterm year.
In fact, 19 for 19 times we've seen November - April higher when starting in a midterm year.
Will this time be different?
Franz-Georg Wenner retweeted
The market is so negative on AI capex spend that hyperscalers with an average 21% revenue growth are trading at a 20.7x P/E multiple.
Meanwhile, you have companies like Costco and Walmart trading at 40x P/E while growing revenue at a fraction of the rate
If the capex proves to have any reasonable ROI, people are going to deeply regret being this bearish on some of the best companies in the world
Franz-Georg Wenner retweeted
BREAKING: The S&P 500 Equal-Weight Index outperformed the S&P 500 by +5.7 percentage points in October, its largest monthly outperformance since April 2009.
This also marked its 2nd-largest monthly outperformance since the 1990s.
The Equal-Weight Index surged +4.8% in October, while the S&P 500 fell -0.9%.
Year-to-date, the Equal-Weight Index has gained +13.9%, exceeding the S&P 500's +10.7% return as technology stocks lag the broader market.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 ex-AI Index has jumped +14.2% year-to-date, reaching a new all-time high on Friday.
Market leadership is rapidly shifting.
Franz-Georg Wenner retweeted
The MAG7 free cash flow is estimated to explode into 2030 per Bloomberg:
Franz-Georg Wenner retweeted
Fun fact: In 19 midterm election years since 1950, the S&P 500 posted a negative October just 5 times. November closed was positive in all 5.
$SPX is currently down in Q4, but the quarter has finished positive in 16 of 19 midterm years.
ALT Bluekurtic Market Insights table showing S&P 500 fourth-quarter performance during midterm election years since 1950, alongside presidential and congressional party control. October was negative in just 5 of 19 historical midterm years, with November positive in all 5. Q4 finished positive in 16 of 19 years (84.2%), with a median gain of 7.9%.
Franz-Georg Wenner retweeted
We are leaving the historically worst six months and the next six months are the historically best for the S&P 500.
Franz-Georg Wenner retweeted
AI is burning Big Tech's free cash flow:
The combined CapEx of Amazon, $AMZN, Alphabet, $GOOGL, Meta, $META, and Microsoft, $MSFT, rose +$36.9 billion in Q3 2026, to a record $201.9 billion.
This figure has more than doubled over the last 12 months and is up +356% since Q1 2024.
Big Tech has now spent $1.6 trillion on CapEx over the last 3 years.
Meanwhile, the combined free cash flow of these companies fell -$33.1 billion last quarter, to -$26.4 billion, its lowest on record.
Free cash flow among these firms has dropped -$88.2 billion over the last year.
Only Microsoft reported positive free cash flow in Q3.
Looking ahead, these 4 companies plan to spend another $232 billion on CapEx in Q4, potentially lifting their combined CapEx to a record $740 billion in 2026.
Big Tech is undertaking one of the largest infrastructure buildouts in history.
Franz-Georg Wenner retweeted
THIS HAS MARKED EVERY MAJOR BUYING & SELLING OPPORTUNITY SINCE 1990
Keep this. It’s how you create generational wealth.
Dot-Com Crash.
2008 Financial Crisis.
2020 COVID Crash.
2022 Bear Market.
2025 Tariff Selloff.
The $VIX is Wall Street’s fear gauge.
If you trade $SPY or $QQQ, understand this:
VIX <20 -> TRIM / REDUCE RISK
VIX 20–30 -> HOLD / BE SELECTIVE
VIX 30–40 -> START BUYING
VIX >40 -> BUY THE PANIC
RIGHT NOW: VIX 19.42
We’re sitting just below 20.
Protect profits, don’t chase extended stocks, and watch for volatility to expand.
Once Fear happens it creates opportunity.
That’s when we start buying.
Franz-Georg Wenner retweeted
U.S. midterms carry a notable historical signal: since 1950, the S&P 500 has risen 6 months post-election 100% of the time (19/19), averaging a +16.9% median gain.
Max 6-month drop? Just -1.8% median, with zero bear markets (-20%+). Party control didn't matter. @bluekurtic
Franz-Georg Wenner retweeted
The unwind in Hedge Fund equity exposures this year has been the biggest since at least 2017.
Active de-grossing (reduction in long + short positions) by global hedge funds has now hit over 8% of total gross exposure since June, according to the Morgan Stanley Prime Brokerage Content team.
This has taken gross leverage for US long/short funds down to the 10th percentile versus the last year.
Franz-Georg Wenner retweeted
Since 2000, there have been 911 days that saw more than 400 advancers for the S&P 500.
Yesterday was the first day ever that was negative.
Franz-Georg Wenner retweeted
History was made: 406 S&P 500 members rose on Thursday even as the index fell 0.3%. In Bloomberg’s advance-decline data going back to 1996, the index has closed higher on all 987 previous sessions with at least 400 gainers, with a median gain of 1.3%.
Franz-Georg Wenner retweeted
Why you should own $AMZN in a nutshell:
Only 45.8% of AWS backlog comes from OpenAI and Anthropic.
$MSFT exposure is about the same, but it has higher concentration risk due to OpenAI.
$GOOG has lower overall exposure to OpenAI+Anthropic, but its search business is at risk.
