πŸ”‹GregπŸ”‹πŸ’ŽπŸ€² (@FreemyerGreg) header
πŸ”‹GregπŸ”‹πŸ’ŽπŸ€² (@FreemyerGreg) profile picture

Obsessed with all things Energy; Data guy; $EOSE is my retirement plan (I study it); $1.50 DCA; $100 target for 2030;

Joined May 2021
Photo by πŸ”‹GregπŸ”‹πŸ’ŽπŸ€² (@FreemyerGreg)Photo by πŸ”‹GregπŸ”‹πŸ’ŽπŸ€² (@FreemyerGreg)Photo by πŸ”‹GregπŸ”‹πŸ’ŽπŸ€² (@FreemyerGreg)Photo by πŸ”‹GregπŸ”‹πŸ’ŽπŸ€² (@FreemyerGreg)Photo by πŸ”‹GregπŸ”‹πŸ’ŽπŸ€² (@FreemyerGreg)Photo by πŸ”‹GregπŸ”‹πŸ’ŽπŸ€² (@FreemyerGreg)Photo by πŸ”‹GregπŸ”‹πŸ’ŽπŸ€² (@FreemyerGreg)Photo by πŸ”‹GregπŸ”‹πŸ’ŽπŸ€² (@FreemyerGreg)Photo by πŸ”‹GregπŸ”‹πŸ’ŽπŸ€² (@FreemyerGreg)
$EOSE Roadmap to $40+ – Redbird Unlocked, Catalysts Loading! Ultra-bull PT $40+ in sight. News drought shattered TODAY: Bimergen advances Redbird to Ready to Build (RTB) stage with JDA approval + Eos Z3 selection (permitting & interconnection cleared, financing next). Milestones I believe drive us there: β˜‘οΈ Bimergen gets JDA approval & permit advancement for the 400 MWh Redbird project (announced TODAY – Eos Z3 selected, milestone‑based capital now flowing!) ⬜ Bimergen publicly places a firm order for the Redbird project ⬜ Q4 earnings β€” Q4 revenue ~$95mm ⬜ Backlog exceeds $1B ⬜ 2026 guidance $500mm–$750mm ⬜ Frontier makes it through the next gate (early spring) with all 11 GWh intact ⬜ The 2.4 GWh NYC Navy Pier project is announced ⬜ NextEra announces they are going to use a significant amount of $EOSE BESS starting immediately ⬜ IEP announces the Robena Data Center project has achieved FID (tenants + full funding secured) ⬜ A large Z3 Indensity order is announced ⬜ Q1 earnings (early May) β€” ~$125mm for Q1 ⬜ Line 2 imminent SAT at Marshall ⬜ Line 3 announcedUltra-bull PT $40+ in sight. ⬜ Backlog exceeds $3B Redbird box checked β€” next one incoming? $EOSE to $40+ feels inevitable if these hit. #EOSE #BESS #ZincBattery #EnergyStorage
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πŸ”‹GregπŸ”‹πŸ’ŽπŸ€² retweeted
Day - 714 Solved a heap + scheduling problem today ⚑ Used two priority queues to manage available and busy servers, assigning tasks based on weight, index, and availability time. #1000DaysOfCode #LeetCode #DSA #Python #Heap
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$EOSE Financial / production summary I've updated this in 2 major ways since yesterday: - I am reflecting both the 85% of ASP as current revenue and the 100% ASP value - The company doesn't often tell us MWh shipped, but this time they told us 390MWh shipped. To make the PTC work out, I had to drop the active minerals credit and use a pure $45/KWh. I moved to $45/KWh for all 2026 quarters. Not sure I should, but it makes the ratio of cube output increase closer to the specified 23% than if I don't. This is version 4 of the spreadsheet.
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$eose This comment is worthy of note. Joe implies Line 1 is already at Thorn Hill and re-assembled! Is it really going to take 4+ months to achieve SAT on the reconfigured line?
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I too think this is accurate. I calculate over 800 cubes shipped in Q2+Q3, so a lot of current generation DawnOS hardware/software has shipped from the factory, but COD might still be a year away for those cubes. But field upgrades for older cubes have been occurring for at least the last 6 months.
Replying to @SpearfishingCap
$EOSE schedules upgrades around customer operating windows on a project-by-project basis so active sites remain available when customers need dispatchable power, while every 2026+ factory Cube (incl. all FPUSA Cubes) already ships with the 672-module DawnOS hardware built in.
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πŸ”‹GregπŸ”‹πŸ’ŽπŸ€² retweeted
Tesla will be winding down production of the Cybertruck at Gigafactory Texas around the middle of next year to make room for increased Cybercab production
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πŸ”‹GregπŸ”‹πŸ’ŽπŸ€² retweeted
Thirty-eight LNG vessels left U.S. ports for the week ending November 4, up one vessel from the previous week. Nine vessels departed from Sabine Pass, eight from Plaquemines, seven from Corpus Christi, four from Cameron, three each from Calcasieu Pass and Freeport, two from Cove Point, and one each from Elba Island and Golden Pass. The LNG-carrying capacity of vessels departing U.S. ports was 144 Bcf, up 2 Bcf from the previous week.
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$eose I know Ugur is assuming $350mm revenue below which seems impossible at the moment. But, I believe it was in the Q2 call that Joe said getting to the top end of guidance would require getting all 4 shifts on Line 2 operating by the end of the year. Yesterday we were told Line 2 is running 24 hours a day. I still don't know if that means 2 shifts [A+C] or 4 shifts [A+B+C+D]. If the company is at 4 shifts as of yesterday, Ugur's math might just come into play!
$EOSE If Eos closes the year at $350M revenue, the unit economics get very interesting. Q4 would need ~$142M, at ~670 MWh. Revenue per kWh: $212 (ASP, the lowest recent print) + $45 (45X tax credit) + $3 (ETC, electrolyte tax credit) = $260/kWh 
COGS per kWh: ~$255 (my estimate: COGS needed to hit (15%) adj. GM at that volume) $260 vs $255 β†’ crossing breakeven on a per-unit basis, and getting very close to contribution-margin positive. If not Q4, then Q1. This is done !!! , done !!!. All Q4 figures are my own estimates, not company guidance. Company guides FY'26 to the lower half of $300–350M. ASP held flat at $212; tax credit treatment assumed.
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πŸ”‹GregπŸ”‹πŸ’ŽπŸ€² retweeted
It's been a long day! Finally finished reading each $EOSE Q3 2026 filing and call transcript. Here's what we thought and some gems: Eos delivered record Q3 revenue and margin improvement, confirming it's on track with its FY2026 guidance and 2027 profitability roadmap. πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΈπŸ”‹πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ
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$EOSE First draft of the Q3 summary During Q3 we learned from an analyst report that 85% of revenue is booked on shipment and 15% is booked on commissioning. That info is not incorporated in the attached.
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$EOSE Operating leverage put simply: For every $1 of additional revenue in Q3 compared with Q2, they had $0.67 of additional COGS, improving gross profit by $0.33. Was a long time coming, but they are making progress.
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$eose contribution margin positive
More detail Q2 REVENUE: $68.75mm Q2 GROSS PROFIT: -$48.8mm Q3 REVENUE: $82.731mm Q3 GROSS PROFIT: -$44.2mm Revenue climbed $14mm while gross profit loss shrank $4.6mm That is exactly what CM+ means!
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πŸ”‹GregπŸ”‹πŸ’ŽπŸ€² retweeted
$eose Contribution Margin positive Not mentioned, but Q3 was CM+ Q2'26 adjusted EBITDA loss $71.4mm Q3'26 adjusted EBITDA loss $63.8mm That's the definition of CM+
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πŸ”‹GregπŸ”‹πŸ’ŽπŸ€² retweeted
$eose Eos will beat both of these numbers and algos will bid it up. The EPS will massively beat purely from mark to markets changes in warrants etc
Expected numbers for $EOSE (Eos Energy) earnings today before open:
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πŸ”‹GregπŸ”‹πŸ’ŽπŸ€² retweeted
(1/4)THE DESERT IS RECHARGING: 18.6 trillion gallons of rain fell in the Four Corners region the last 2 weeks - and it’s having an impact. Flooding has been a big concern, but on the flip side lake levels have come up during a time of year that substantial rises are quite rare.
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πŸ”‹GregπŸ”‹πŸ’ŽπŸ€² retweeted
(1/3) GUNLOCK FALLS UTAH: Historic rains have resurrected one of the crown jewels of southern Utah, yes, even Gunlock Falls! These waterfalls only flow when Gunlock Reservoir is at 106% capacity and is flowing over the emergency spillway.
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πŸ”‹GregπŸ”‹πŸ’ŽπŸ€² retweeted
JNTG filed an amended prospectus on DART this morning, partway through its book-build for its upcoming float The new text now describes its biggest customer, "A", as a North American maker of zinc-bromine long-duration storage that isn't yet profitable. Sounds like $eose and the filing names EOS separately in its market overview. Sole supplier: JNTG has supplied β€˜A’ since 2022 and is now its only electrode supplier. It replaced two Chinese suppliers once US rules restricting parts sourced from China made them hard to use. JNTG expects to stay the only supplier until those US limits on Chinese electrodes ease. Pricing: JNTG cut prices to β€˜A’ by about 20% over two years and kept its own margins. It doesn't give unit prices. Contracts: β€˜A’ sends about a one-year forecast, and firm orders come roughly four months before delivery. A long-term contract is still "being pursued", so there's no multi-year order book Volumes: JNTG expects to ship about twice as much to β€˜A’ in 2027 as in 2026. It sees demand exceeding its capacity from 2028, driven by β€˜A's growing backlog plus a large European flow-battery project (likely Invinity Swiss project) Capacity: JNTG has 2.4m mΒ² a year now and expects to need four production lines from 2028. Each new line takes about 19 months, so it plans to order the long-lead furnaces this year. Risk: JNTG says again that β€˜A’ is loss-making and burning cash. It models β€˜A’ stopping orders entirely in 2027 or 2028, including writing off β€˜A’-related stock and unpaid bills. For $EOSE, this is a supplier's view rather than EOS's own numbers. It points to electrode demand doubling in 2027, less reliance on China and falling input costs. The trade-off is that EOS depends on a single supplier for this part, and that supplier flags EOS's cash burn as a risk.
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1975 rules! I was 14 and didn't know how good I had it!
By carefully watching this video Which, as a proper coquette, I watched to the end I realized that we live in the most slovenly era of the past 125 years…
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πŸ”‹GregπŸ”‹πŸ’ŽπŸ€² retweeted
Record battery output of 60 GWh Mon 11/2/26 on the @CaliforniaISO grid. 4-hour batteries discharged all night - demonstrating long-duration storage. Grid has 17.307 GW batteries, 24.415 GW solar, 12.453 GW wind, 1.41 GW geothermal, 1.14 GW small hydro, and more large hydro. Battery output up 292% in '26 v '23 Gas down 42,4% 219th of 307 days (71.3%) and 16.9% of all hours in 2026 with WWS>100% of demand. WWS has supplied 54.6% of all demand in '26.
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πŸ”‹GregπŸ”‹πŸ’ŽπŸ€² retweeted
Big news! SpaceX has just officially announced that they are partnering with Qualcomm to help build @Starlink Mobile's nationwide terrestrial 5G network, with deployment beginning in 2027. Under the multi-year agreement, SpaceX plans to deploy tens of thousands of cellular sites across the U.S., powered by Qualcomm's Dragonwing infrastructure technology. Details: β€’ Qualcomm will supply its Dragonwing QRU100 and QDU100 platforms to power Starlink Mobile's 5G base stations. β€’ The network will use advanced 64T64R Massive MIMO technology to improve coverage, capacity, and spectrum efficiency. β€’ Energy-efficient processing will help reduce power consumption and improve network deployment economics. β€’ The infrastructure will support multiple spectrum bands and lay the groundwork for future AI-native 6G technology. SpaceX says its goal is to build the first fully integrated nationwide satellite and terrestrial mobile network, combining traditional cell towers with its satellite constellation to keep customers connected virtually everywhere. This is a BIG step toward SpaceX becoming a full-fledged nationwide wireless carrier, directly competing with AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile. New competition is coming to town.
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