I would rather watch Canada Soccer
Joined July 2024
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Theo hit 10 GC's tonight & Sargent starting to move the needle on his.
Sargent adding 2 more to his total with Theo adding one.
Salloi putting together the best offensive season we've seen since Pozuelo.
#tfclive
#tfclive always entertaining, but also getting very annoying.
Can we just start playing this way to start the game?
Oso keeping his season goal streak going.
And if course, our customary brothers Gibb gif to get us through another match day.
#tfclive we could have saved a lot of injuries this year if we just played the 2H & gave the other team a 1-0 lead at the half.
Jesse Marsch knows what our identity is supposed to be more than anyone at MLSE
#tfclive
If what I am watching the last two games is it, I don't want any part of it.
Fraser's trying to stick square pegs in round holes, to steal a line from Herdman.
We were headed in the right direction.
After the Nashville win, we just went backwards almost like . . .
This halftime light show is the best part of tonight.
#tfclive
never tail a 'capper especially when they don't tell you what price is fair market value.
Price vs probability dictates which side you select.
Compare prices across the books. If you're not grabbing the best price available, you're leaving $ on the table.
Ask a handicapper "What is your record?"
BULLSHIT answers
"15-7 on Totals"
"13-5 on top rated plays"
"9-2 on AFC 3* favorites"
"34-24 overall"
THE ONLY answer is
YTD I am up/down ____ units.
Last year I was up/down ____ units.
All this other stuff is just nonsense. Fine to list you have a nice short term win rate, or a nice subset you have won at. But that is NOT your record, and everyone knows it.
Model shows fair price for tonight's #TFCLive game as follows:
TFC +105 48.8%
Tie +324 23.6%
DC +262 27.6%
Oddsjam shows the lines as per screenshot.
Only Pinnacle has small dog value on DC. If I was betting this, I'd bet 1/2 unit on DC on Pinnacle.
This is terrible advice.
If you find value, wager. If you don't, don't.
Profitable sports bettors know that rolling over a profitable strategy compounds it.
E.g. if you have a model that returns 3% ROI & you 3x your bankroll, that's a 9% monthly return.
If you’re a sports bettor, read this:
Your goal always needs to be the lose the least, not win the most.
In a perfect world, you’re placing 1 bet a day. If there’s nothing you like, then 0.
The more bets you place every day doesn’t increase your chances to win the most, it increases your chances to lose the most.
Less is more.
#tfclive 🤞that we can win these next two games to give us a shot on decision day.
It's been awhile since decision day has meant something.
Still not sure if we make the playoffs if we win out, but hoping that last game still means something.
Bullshit.
Their algorithms know very quickly when you're making sharp bets.
The books are getting greedy. They're willing to take the hit when the public hammers one side because they know over time the public will net them more than hedging risk with sharp $.
Professional sports bettor Mike Manning says he got a firsthand look at how a sports gambling betting platform treats winners differently from losers. He told CBS News’ Jim Axelrod that Caesars Sportsbook showered him with VIP perks when he was losing, then slashed his betting limits and cut off the perks after he started winning.
His account adds to allegations that sports betting platforms limit the amount skilled gamblers are able to wager.
In a statement, Caesars Sportsbook said, “We don't comment on the specifics of individual customer accounts. Caesars Sportsbook is an entertainment product and we consider a variety of factors including account activity, integrity protocols, and consistency with our terms and conditions, when establishing wagering limits and determining VIP rewards and benefits. No decision is made solely on a customer's win-loss record.”
Another realization is that you're not winning $ off the sportsbook once you learn to profitably sports bet. If there's no retail action on the other side of your bet, you will get limited.
So you're winning dumb money, not sportsbook $.
**Sports betting has never been more accessible. Yet the vast majority of recreational bettors continue losing money.**
And it's not always because they're picking the wrong teams.
Poor habits, unrealistic expectations, and a lack of understanding can destroy a bankroll just as quickly as bad predictions.
Here are 10 mistakes I see bettors making, why they matter, and what you should be doing differently.
🧵
On a bright note, Cavalry won the shield today so FCK MTL has to continue to wait for a CCC birth.
It would be comical if Supra win the playoffs & prevent Montreal from getting a CCC slot.
This is false.
While arbitrage opportunities are out there, you will get limited very quickly.
What this user is doing is showing you what the profits would be if the books let you continuously make these types of wagers.
Unfortunately you'll get kicked off books with 2 weeks.
I make $528 an hour arbitrage betting.
The average American makes about $29 an hour.
I am clearing more than 18 times that during the time it takes most people to eat lunch.
Each arbitrage bet takes about a minute to place and pays out $8 to $10 on average. At $9 per bet, hitting $350 a day means placing around 39 bets. 39 bets. 39 minutes of work. $350 in profit.
Sportsbooks set their lines independently. When they disagree enough, both sides of the same bet become profitable at the same time. That window does not last long. @OddsJam finds it in real time.
This is not gambling. I am not predicting games. I am not tailing picks. I am placing bets on both sides of the same market across two books simultaneously and locking in a guaranteed profit before the game even starts. The result does not matter. Here is exactly what that looks like.
This month I averaged $350 in profit per day across 23 days. Every single day is green.
That is what my sports betting side hustle pays me when I break down the math. I work a full-time IT job. I am 28 years old. And @OddsJam has become the most profitable thing I do with my time. Here is exactly how I make this work. 🧵👇
This post is @JeffreyPNesker approved!
#tfclive
Spanish midfielder Alonso Coello has quietly put together one of the strongest seasons in MLS. 🔎
The Toronto FC midfielder’s 89.7 Overall Grade ranks 1st of 159 central midfielders, with an all-round profile that grades above positional average across almost every key category.
He’s also registered 99 interceptions and won 98 challenges, while his 46 chances created are the most of any central midfielder in MLS.
#TFC
