2026 Topps Allen & Ginter Deep Dive My intention is to try to cut A&G a little slack. Though it's weirdness has never been my jam, I know it has some loyal fans out there. And I'm definitely not trying to alienate any collectors. I understand some of the appeal. Every since I hit a Crypto base card in 2018, had it graded and sold it for $750, I get it. In 2019, I hit a Hot Box and pulled an Egg. It sold for $200. I get it. We collect weird stuff. People embrace the oddities. Despite all that, I have some stuff to get off my hairy-ass chest...in due time. Let's just go ahead and address the elephant in the room. There has already been plenty of chatter about Hobby box configuration shrinking from 24 packs of 8 cards in 2025 to 18 packs of 8 cards for 2026, a 33.3% decrease in cards per box. The question is- does this really matter? The answer...absolutely. But how much? Patience my friend. We'll get there. I have some numbers. Some of which, I promise you won't get anywhere else. Welcome to 2026 Allen & Ginter. Part 1: The Basics Boxes go live Wednesday, October 7th at Noon CT. Launch price will be $160/Hobby box. It's worth noting that pre-order price was $140, which was also the same price at which 2025 A&G launched. Yet another example that if there's a product you're after, you should emphasize trying to get it at pre-order pricing, because it's likely the best price you'll see. There will also be Value Boxes and Fat Packs, presumably at $25 & $7 respectively. Part 2: Production Numbers Total Cards in Product: 60,377,056 2025 A&G- 58,983,960 YOY- +2.36% Total Boxes Produced by Format: Hobby- 168,528 (14,044 cases) ------>YOY +44.5% Value- 513,880 (12,847 cases) ------->YOY +6.3% Fat Packs- 817,344 (7,568 cases) ---->YOY -4.1% Remember that elephant from earlier? There you have it: Reducing the packs per Hobby box allowed Topps to produce almost 52,000 more boxes (or $8.32m at drop pricing) without materially changing the total cards produced. That's some Game Master shit. We are but pawns. I'm sure this surprises precisely no one. Every major company in existence does it. Aptly called Shrinkflation, or maybe more appropriately Enshittification. It is the art of charging more while providing less. Notice how small Big Macs are these days? They used to actually be big. How about pre-portioned "100 calorie" packs of your favorite snack? Giving you less while charging you more. Even Oreos have jumped in the mix. You notice how small those things are compared to what they used to be? Every company that sells you stuff is doing it. It's life. I'm not justifying it. Just saying I am a Capitalist and I'm trying to accept it. But Topps has an advantage over many of those companies. There is a way Topps could justify this. Oreos can't exactly pack more flavor into the same number of exceedingly small cookies. But Topps can. If they can shrink these boxes while simultaneously making them "juicier", then we can probably find a way to accept that. Right? Surely, that's what they did. Right? But I don't just come with theories. I have numbers... Part 3: Production Numbers- A Deeper Look Before we get to the meat and potatoes, I wanted to show you a bit about how product dynamics have changed since 2025. Out of the nearly 60.4m cards in the product, here's what those consist of: Total Inserts- 2026: 6,260,440 2025: 9,857,221 YOY: -36.5% OK, whatever. Inserts in Ginter aren't really the chase other than for set builders. Total Parallels- 2026: 4,608,476 2025: 5,558,299 YOY: -17% For these purposes, I'm not counting Base Minis, Base Chromes, or Base Short Prints from 2025 as parallels (since they don't exist in 2026). But I am counting parallels of them. Less Parallels overall, even with slightly more total cards? That's weird. Are we starting to see a pattern emerge? Total Minis (Including Chrome)- 2026: 7,189,916 2025: 11,329,773 YOY: -36.5% This is odd, but whatever. My guess is most people don't love minis to begin with, so it's probably not going to crush many hearts. Total Chrome (not including Minis)- 2026: 423,152 2025: 1,479,299 YOY: -71.4% Making Chromes considerably tougher to pull is certainly a choice. One that I think collectors absolutely will not love. If I had to guess, a majority of folks would probably prefer Chromes over Minis. Well, you're getting a lot less of both this year. Total Relics- 2026: 253,928 2025: 147,380 YOY: +72.3% OK, maybe Topps didn't completely hang us out to dry. This is the kind of thing we need to see. No one really likes relics, but a massive increase in Hobby boxes necessitates more "hits". So this is not unexpected. Total Autos- 2026: 158,026 2025: 95,390 YOY: +65.7% Probably the only bright spot in this whole section. Significantly more Hobby boxes means Topps had to produce significantly more autos. But is this enough to redeem A&G? Total Base (this includes strictly full-sized paper base after removal of all Chrome, Minis, etc.)- 2026: 44,763,606 (149,212 ea) 2025: 30,020,249 (100,067 ea) YOY: 49% more base cards per player This is why I added this entire section. Roughly the same number of cards produced. Yet somehow Topps finds a way to turn ~15m non-base cards in to straight base. All while pulling in tons more revenue due to the integration of 52K more Hobby Boxes. Granted, some of those were Minis (which no one cares about) and Chromes (which many people care about). But there is no way to sugar coat these numbers. Yes, we have more autos & relics. But that doesn't mean you'll pull more autos and relics unless you buy significantly more boxes than you did last year. So what does this mean for individual box hit rates? Funny you should ask... Part 4: What's in the Box? Topps advertises 2 Hits per Box. Meaning a combination of 2 Autos, Relics, Plates, or Rip Cards per box. In 2025, the actual number came out to 2.08 "hits" per box, meaning there were a small percentage of boxes that had an extra hit. For 2026, that's a little lower at 2.04 "hits" per box. There should be an occasional extra hit in some boxes. But not many. And less than last year. Expected Hit Rates per Box: Hobby- 0.75 Autos, 1.05 Relics, 11.7 Parallels, 13.4 Inserts, 0.6 Numbered Cards *It's important to note that autos may be a bit more prevalent than last year (0.6/box), but Parallels will be down drastically due to the decrease in packs. 2025 Parallels per hobby box was 25.5. Value- 1 Auto per 24.75 boxes (1.6/case), 1 Relics per 10.1 boxes (~4/case), 3.8 Parallels, 5.9 Inserts, 1 Numbered card per 8.25 boxes (~4.8/case) Fat Packs- 1 Auto per 73.7 packs (~1.5/case), 1 Relic per 32.25 packs (~3.35/case), 0.8 Parallels, 1.2 Inserts, 1 Numbered card per 28.3 packs (~3.8/case) Percentage of Numbered Autos: Hobby- 47.85% Value- 48.1% Fat Packs- 47.8% Rare Inserts: In Allen & Ginter, Rare Inserts are not really a thing. There is something called "Uniform Countdown", which would technically be considered a Rare Insert, but they are ultra scarce with an average print run of ~9 ea. It's possible their print run is based on player uniform numbers. There are no "case hits" in the product. Part 5: Value Map Base on $140/Hobby box, $25/Value, & $7/Fat Pack. $/Card: 1) Fat Pack- 50¢ 2) Value Box- 52¢ 3) Hobby- 97¢ $/Parallel: 1) Value- $6.53 2) Fat Pack- $8.64 3) Hobby- $11.96 $/Auto: 1) Hobby- $186.67 2) Fat Pack- $515.69 3) Value- $618.50 $/# Card: 1) Fat Pack- $198.24 2) Value- $206.00 3) Hobby- $229.51 $/Quality Hit: 1) Hobby- $228.20 2) Fat Pack- $276.43 3) Value- $298.75 In a nutshell, Fat Packs are the most economical way to pull nearly all parallels. Hobby boxes are the most cost-effective for pulling nearly all Autos & Relics. Part 6: Best Format It's a bit like picking your favorite flu symptom, but Hobby at $140 would have to squeak out a win here. Part 7: What Would the Squatch Do As mentioned, the Squatch is already not a fan of the A&G. But based on the numbers, this year stands out as being the worst in recent memory. Yes, the baseball checklist will be stronger than last year. At a glance, I believe the non-sports checklist will also be an upgrade over last year. And yes, with things like Cut Autos of All-Time Greats in the mix, Lineup Card 1/1 Autos, and Miley Cyrus Dynasty Patch Autos (?!), there is a miniscule chance you can pull an absolute nuke. Some unsuspecting chap is going to pull one of the 5 Cut Autos that are inserted into Fat Packs and think it's the greatest product in the history of man kind. And honestly, there are some ridiculous names on that checklist: Abraham Lincoln, Babe Ruth, Jackie Robinson, Lou Gehrig, Marlon Brando, Mickey Mantle, Satchel Paige, Ty Cobb, Winston Freaking Churchill... If you're into unique singles, just know that Topps did an abysmal job of highlighting the many actually amazing cards in the set. Go check out Daguerrotype 1/1 Redemptions. Or Carte De Visite Autos. Or one of the 1/1 Lineup Card Autos. Or Tin Type Variations /10. Some of the Mini Wood, Stained Glass, and Metals are also cool. There is no shortage of dope singles in this product, which you should absolutely have on your radar. But that's the end of the glazing. Frankly, these wax metrics suck. Allen & Ginter, along with Flagship & Heritage, should always be in the Holy Trinity of cheap Topps Baseball releases. Certain Flagships have already gotten out of hand. And I’m afraid the upcoming Heritage NFL will break that mold and be unnecessarily overpriced for what it is. For Ginter though, $160/Hobby box at drop is a travesty. "But Squatch...Blowout has last year's Allen & Ginter at $235/box!" I don't even think A&G fans will fight me on this one...that is a monumental rip-off and should be avoided like COVID. And, I just noticed Blowout has pre-orders up for 2026 A&G. For $245. Pardon me, I think I'm gonna be sick. If you get anything at all from this, do all of us a favor and never give them the satisfaction of selling a box for that. There are so many better products you can buy. And Ginter ain't it... As for me, I will not be stashing. I will not be ripping. I will not buy a single sealed anything of this product. But a Barry Bonds Red Ink Auto /10? Don't mind if I do. Part 8: Print Runs Base- ~149,210 ea Base Mini- ~12,350 ea Base Chrome- ~2,490 ea Base Mini Chrome- ~3,795 ea Unnumbered Parallels: Chrome Refractors- ~1,265 ea Chrome X-Fractors- ~105 ea Mini A&G Logo- ~5,670 ea Mini Black Bordered- ~2,925 ea Mini No Number- ~50 ea Mini Gold Bordered- ~1,645 ea Base Foil Filagree- ~820 ea Base Silver Portrait- ~2,020 ea Unnumbered Inserts: 50 Ways to Say Hello (50 card CL)- ~11,375 ea Musical Methods (20 card CL)- ~11,375 ea N34 (50 card CL)- ~11,375 ea N43 (20 card CL)- ~91,880 ea Rookie Design Variations (20 card CL)- ~11,375 ea Wicked Power (30 card CL)- ~93,000 ea Uniform Countdown (40 card CL)- ~9 ea (possibly print run to each players jersey number) Unnumbered Relics: Framed Mini Relics (120 card CL)- ~515 ea Full Size Relics A (91 card CL)- ~1,290 ea Full Size Relics B (73 card CL)- ~850 ea Unnumbered Autos: Full Size Autos (3 card CL)- ~140 ea Mini Framed Autos (180 card CL)- ~315 ea Mini Non-Baseball Autos (59 card CL)- ~430 ea #thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics #2026ToppsAllenGinter