GeorgeL313

Instead of just talking about it, I wanted to go through it and really break it down to figure out the exact reason for the difference in Jalen Duren's play between the regular season and the playoffs. *LONG BREAKDOWN COMING* First, lets list how much the difference was: Iso in RS: 82nd %ile Iso in PS: 21st %ile Post-ups in RS: 88th %ile Post-ups in PS: 59th %ile PPP on drives in RS: 1.18 ppp PPP on drives in PS: 0.80 Layups in RS: 79th %ile Layups in PS: 19th %ile It was a staggering drop off. Shocking to many of us who watched him all season. So, what happened? Well, #1 I think mentally he was letting his struggles get to him and he started to play out of control. Something that suggests this to me is this stat: He started to figure some things out himself in isolation over the last 2 games against the Cavs. He had six isolation possessions in the final two games against the Cavs; he scored on five of those possessions and drew a foul on the other. Game 6 he started to look confident and really made them pay out of isolation. I really think a ton of it was he got hit with a punch early against ORL and really struggled to handle the pressure and struggles after, and just kept stacking and stacking. So, him being in his own head is #1 for me. #2: His handle got exposed quite a bit. In the regular season, he only had a 4.2 TO% in isolation, which is incredible. In the playoffs, though, that spiked to 20 TO%. On drives in the RS, he had a TO% of 4%. In the PS, it jumped to 13.3%. The first clip below shows how the right-to-left cross he loved doing all season was really taken away from him. Too loose of a handle, and he often got his pocket picked trying this exact move over and over. I think having his go-to move taken from him shook him a bit and left him scrambling a bit in his head to find a counter. The second clip shows, imo, him starting to lose trust in his handle. He immediately turns his back to the defender, which is what you do when you're worried about losing the ball. But, even then, he loses control of the handle and it ends up in a turnover. If I'm the Pistons, I'm showing all his turnovers due to his handle and working with him on tightening his handle and also helping him get comfortable with a counter/second move so defenders don't just sit on the right-to-left cross. #3: I think he really struggled to adjust to the playoff whistle. In the regular season, he drew free throws on 21% of his isolations and 31% of his post-ups. In the PS, it dropped to 14% and 11%, respectively. There were many possessions where in the RS he would've got free throws, but did not in the PS and he was frustrated. In the third clip, you'll see how physical he was being played by Mobley (which we all want physicality in the game). But, in the RS, he probably is getting FTA's here. There are many examples of this where it felt like a lot of his value during the RS was being able to draw FTA's on his drives, and in the PS, refs just allowed more physicality, and he struggled to deal with it. #4: Ausar-Duren duo. I believe in this duo, and I do not think this was the main reason Duren struggled. However, I am not blind to the fact that there were obviously some possessions that hurt Duren. In the regular season, Duen actually got less efficient when Ausar wasn't on the floor. However, in the playoffs, Duren went from 51 TS% with Ausar on the floor (302 minutes) to 64 TS% with Ausar off the floor (121 minutes). In the 4th clip, you really see how the lack of spacing caused a tough shot from Duren. He gets a step on WCJ going right, and probably would prefer to then just use his strength to create spearation. However, he sees Suggs sitting in the right gap off of Ausar, which forces him to spin left. Once he spins left, Paolo is completely leaving Tobias open. This is one of the reasons I really think DET needs a spacing 4 because this should be an easy kickout from Duren to a shooter. He still should've made this pass to Tobias, but a legit shooting 4 I think would relocate to the corner and make an easier outlet/easier to see for Duren. But, he still coulda made the pass, tbf. Either way, you see how the lack of spacing from both Ausar and Tobias forced Duren into a really awkward drive where he was forced into an extremely tough shot. I think if the passing returned from Duren, some of these situations wouldn't happen. Hitting Ausar early as he cuts into the space would work, or hitting Tobias (who again shoulda be making himself more available) beyond the arc results in better offense. But, also, having better spacing probably allows Duren to just get to his original move once he beats WCJ off the dribble. and lastly #5: He really just didn't play well. I can't include any more clips (I'll put some in the immediate thread reply to display), but he really just didn't play well. Missed *a lot* of looks we're used to him making. His touch around the rim left him, looked like he really felt rushed in the paint. He was struggling to secure rebounds after dominating the glass all season (during the RS, he averaged 4.3 second chance points a game, in the PS it dropped to 2.3). During RS, he had a 22.0 DREB%, which dropped to 16.0% in the playoffs. So, I think a lot of factors played into why he struggled so much in the playoffs. My takeaway is I don't think these things are unfixable; actually, I think they're very fixable. Experience of dealing with what playoff physicality is I think is going to help moving forward. All young players have to adjust to that--I think Cade really learned that from NY series to this playoff run. Tightening his handle and just having a second move to go to is not something that should be considered impossible. I'd like to believe it's pretty likely with how much he works and the raw skill he already has with his handle. Pistons adding a legit spacer at the four I think solves a lot and will make Duren's life a lot easier. The most concerning part is mental. And we won't know an answer to that until the next playoffs. Did this experience help him on his journey towards becoming mentally strong and prepared enough to move forward? Did this run help him find a routine that helps him lock in mentally, as many players have said they had to discover? Or will the pressure from struggling last postseason get to him this upcoming postseason? Will he let mistakes get into his head, compound them, and start playing rashly? I don't think the second option will be the case, but no one will know until the next postseason. Honestly, I'm more concerned and critical of his defense in the playoffs (which at times was pretty good and at other times was an incredible struggle), but that would require its own thread. My ending thoughts: I still very much believe in Duren. This playoff run showed he has areas he must sharpen up and learn from, but at 22 that shouldn't be a shocker. He is incredibly talented and made a large jump during the RS. The PS posed challenges he didn't quite have answers to yet. But another run of experience, another offseason of training, and another year older should lead him down a good path. I am fully supportive of paying Duren and extending him. I am not at close to 50 million dollars. 35-40 million is where I think they'll settle on, and I'm fine with that. But, he's gotta learn from these playoffs! Every offseason he's gotten better, I don't have a reason to believe Jalen Duren won't learn and improve again this summer. He's only 22.