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If you think Trump is going to win, you can stack more sats by betting against Kamala than by betting on Trump. 94% ROI betting against Kamala vs 66% ROI betting on Trump bitcoinprediction.market

New market dropped. Bet on Pennsylvania elections. The earlier you bet the better your odds. bitcoinprediction.market

Prediction markets are capital markets for intelligence. The subsidy provided by the market maker is the price of information. The positive externalities are huge: open sourcing event forecasting. Elections are just the beginning.

Hedging hashrate reduces #Bitcoin mining pool block reward variance. This chart shows the expected earnings of a pool if they bet against themselves every block for one difficulty epoch. By hedging hashrate every block, pools reduce 2 standard deviations of risk to less than 1.

If a miner directs their hashrate to a pool with 5% hashrate, they only get paid 5% of the time (assuming proportional payouts). If a miner hedges their hashrate (by betting against their own pool) then they get paid 95% of the time. Hedging hashrate therefore reduces cash flow variance for miners in pools with proportional payouts. Which is preferable? Make money 5% of the time OR make money 95% of the time?

Building around constraints is hard, but it's worth it. It's like cutting a steak. You need to cut around the bone. If you abandon natural design constraints and decide to cut as you please, you'll hit the bone, hack your way through, and damage your blade. The steak will also be less tasty when you eat it with extra bone. Bitcoin has many design constraints, but that makes building on Bitcoin such a beautiful process. Self-custody is the bone of Bitcoin. Self-custody ensures your money is resistance money, and you can use it as you please. Any project that hacks their way through the bone of the self-custodial constraints simply damages their own blade, and makes the steak suck. Intellectual laziness is no excuse for designing dangerous applications with high rugpull potential (ecash—looking directly at you). Lightning enables Bitcoin to scale with self-custody. It is a beautiful yet complex solution that works around the bone of self-custody and aligns with Bitcoin's design and ethos. Rather than reject the efforts of the developers who created a system that actually works, a system that enables trustless instant settlement, we should figure out how to use it and enable users to maintain secure self-custody. Satoshi brought Bitcoin into the world to enable internet commerce without trusted third parties. Why are we trying to bring them back when we have come so far? Why is there a vision in the Bitcoin community for more people to become trusted third parties and mint their own ecash currency? This vision of custodial ecash undermines Satoshi's intention. If we Bitcoin builders are inheriting Satoshi's will, then we must abide by the constraints of self-custody. Otherwise, we build tools for slavery, not freedom. Building useful self-custodial applications on Lightning that solve real problems is still a challenging task that requires creativity and critical thinking. But it's possible. The vision of a self-custodial future should not be abandoned. That's how we're doing it with bitcoinprediction.market