Gold alpha provider for those who listen. Deleted my main account after the be kind brigade cancelled me.
Joined March 2018
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Gold probably has not formed its intermediate cycle low yet, but I think by December the gold royalty majors will already be at all-time highs. They have a good sense where things are going and are front-running gold. And are printing cash.
Three monster patterns. Royal Gold, Franco Nevada, and Wheaton Precious Metals charted vs gold.
$RGLD $FNV $WPM
And now in the green circle before panic.
Where Are We In The Sentiment Cycle?
The sentiment cycle is a timeless pattern from Justin Mami’s book from 1999, which describes the phases and behavior of a normal market cycle.
Because the market moves in repeatable cycles, with similar characteristics as the cycle progresses.
And they are repeatable because the market is a product of human behavior such as fear, greed, panic and complacency.
Long time readers of TSF will recognize this one, and that we have used it before in two complete market cycles.
The tariff decline and recovery and the Iran war decline and recovery. Here we see what we mapped out before the Iran war decline.
And we have to ask ourselves, where are we now, look carefully at the schematic, and then look at the current price action.
My guess is as good as yours, but I would say looks pretty much like subtle/overt warning to me.
Huge relative strength from gold miners on a day gold and silver were down.
New leadership potential.
Look at a chart like Royal Gold on the higher time frames (2M). Tight consolidation after a 40% pullback. Now only 10% off the highs.
Terrible mistake on my part not buying back in earlier because I was watching the gold chart, not paying attention to this. These producers and royalty plays are ludicrously undervalued.
Study this.
This is how someone with spreadsheets and Claude but zero understanding of markets thinks.
“I have fundamentals skills! I am good at dealing with fundamentals! Can't you understand that? What's wrong with you people?!"
the great semicon reset this week
has opened up juicy opportunities we didn't have just a few months ago. let me articulate some thoughts.
intel's stock has been cut hard, down 46% over the past 3 months.
the bull case for $INTC is that better manufacturing economics can turn Intel's product growth into much higher earnings.
- lip-bu tan says a couple of outside foundry customers could be ready to announce within two quarters.
- 18A (intel's newest chip process) costs are down 40% since Q1
- 18A chips went from <5% to nearly 1/3 of client CPU revenue
- wildcat lake, the cheap 18A laptop chip, grew units 70% q/q and is sold out
- data center revenue is on track to end 2026 ~$10B above what intel expected going in
CFO's rule of thumb: 40 to 60% of any new revenue falls through to gross profit
cheaper wafers plus more revenue on the new node is operating leverage. 2027 is when it should show. the CFO already calls next year a growth year.
I sold all crypto on Thursday because we closed below the closing low of the last daily cycle low, setting up the potential for a deeply left-translated broken daily cycle with a daily cycle high at day 6. That could get seriously ugly with a full two months of time for a decline.
The DCL on 10/15 for me is confirmed with a higher higher and a close above the 10 and 20 MA's. We don't have confirmation of a broken cycle until we break 79,821 but I want nothing to do with these markets in any way, shape, or form.
BTC could easily roundtrip this entire move and head back to 68k in its sleep.
Have fun.
And there’s your day 6 Daily Cycle High confirmation. This now had loads of time to bleed lower, all the way into December.
First crypto trades in ages. Just been watching, doing other things in my new hood, and waiting for a fat pitch.
Got very tight short entries on btc and eth.
Good start. Nuke them both to glass.
You must be joking. Thoughts and prayers.
South Korean retail investors are once again taking on massive amounts of leverage.
According to Korean media reports, they made net purchases of approximately $300 million across 14 single-stock leveraged products linked to Samsung Electronics and SK hynix between October 1 and 23.
They are also taking on substantial leverage in the U.S. stock market, reportedly making net purchases of $3.54764 billion in the Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares ETF (SOXL), which seeks to deliver three times the daily return of a U.S. semiconductor index.
biz.chosun.com/stock/stock_g…
Oh what a surprise.
AI crash. Best case scenario only another 15% to go.
Best case.
-30% on the cards.
The floor is now gone.
Imagine buying tech after the midterm results because of “seasonality” and “the end of uncertainty”.
Jesus wept. These people are getting massacred.
Here comes the fun part.
BREAKING: Donald Trump and his top White House aides are reportedly preparing to directly blame Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth for the Republican midterm defeat, along with military commanders who pushed for war with Iran, per CNN and CBS News.
“Trump, always one to crowdsource an opinion, has asked allies about their thoughts on Hegseth’s performance of late,” sources told CNN.
CBS News also reports that Trump believes the election results would have been entirely different without the Iran war. Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine and CENTCOM commander Gen. Brad Cooper are also reportedly facing scrutiny as Trump looks for someone to blame for the Republican midterm defeat.
What do you think happens when the monthly divergences on the Nikkei play out and it reverts to mean?
Daily breaker which had four strong wick reactions now failing to hold. Often risk off moves into FOMC get reversed but this feels more like operation slow bleed than a quick deleveraging prior to a news event.
