Gold alpha provider for those who listen. Deleted my main account after the be kind brigade cancelled me.
Joined March 2018
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- Followers2.9K
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Nine retweeted
PURR’s mNAV is back above 1.0x.
Their previous HYPE accumulation led to HYPE’s run to all-time highs. If parity holds, PURR could be entering another buying cycle.
HYPE back at $50, some thoughts:
The move played out pretty much exactly as expected, price was driven higher by Hyperliquid Strategies purchasing 11.12M HYPE, often at a pace of more than $100M per week. To put the scale of that buying into perspective, PURR became the largest DAT in crypto measured by percentage of circulating supply held, at roughly 10%, even higher than Strategy’s 4.5% despite the latter accumulating Bitcoin for years.
Because the move was largely independent of fundamentals, driven by the DAT bid and momentum traders, with a clear invalidation once that buying stopped, it was fairly clear holders and traders would take profits into these temporarily elevated prices. Looking at PA, the move was a combination of AQAv2 news and DAT flows, and you can see how price behaves in these regimes once the incremental bid disappears.
Therefore, while various theories now exist around why HYPE is going down, it seems pretty clear this is the natural resolution of a temporary move driven by telegraphed flows. Also keep in mind that although HYPE recently traded largely uncorrelated from crypto, the core business remains heavily exposed to crypto activity, with July revenue at $43M versus $92M in July last year, and price is now beginning to reflect that as well.
With all that being said, it is difficult to have a strong short-term directional view at this point, especially given that we have seen zones like this turn into multi-month distribution periods, but valuation has clearly returned to a more realistic level. The questions now are whether Hyperliquid’s core crypto perps business can recover and whether it can effectively monetize newer business lines, so although I have less of a view on the short-term path from here, I remain allocated because my bias is that it can do both.
Hyperliquid
Nine retweeted
Hyperliquid's biggest barrier was that its positioning as a permissionless onchain market layer did not fit legacy market definitions, so it could not be offered to US investors.
The CFTC working with Hyperliquid shows it is now important enough to warrant updated policy, likely one that recognizes onchain venues as a legitimate alternative to DCMs.
This is easily Hyperliquid's most important catalyst: an updated market structure lets US brokers route through HyperCore, putting 24/7 perps, spot and outcome markets in front of millions of US investors.
Hyperliquid
Nine retweeted
In short order, $ABXXF @abaxx_exchange will likely have the most liquid futures contracts for:
LNG
non-us/china gold
non-us/china silver
non-china Lithium Carbonate
Carbon offset credits
(All physically settled)
The market cap is USD $1.5bn.
For now.
Abaxx Q1'26 Earnings & Business Update Call
Join Abaxx tomorrow, May 19th, at 10 a.m. EDT for a presentation covering the Company's Q1'26 results along with a business & @abaxx_exchange market development update, followed by a Q+A session
Register Now
event.choruscall.com/mediafr…
Nine retweeted
$AGQ vs $KORU
They said it was a fools errand to compare the parabolic Silver move to the move in Korea, yet the charts continue to look identical in structure
Blow off top indeed. $EWY down nearly -20% in one week on the highest volume ever. The parabolic melt-up in the Kospi is such a clean example of reflexivity in real time. Several months ago the Samsung / Hynix "memory" thesis was disused by a relatively small number of people. As the move really began to accelerate and the tape "proved" the story, word started to spread, leverage poured in, and the price action itself became a fundamental. That vicious feedback loop began to feed on itself at the start of the year. Then near the peak of the move you see record extension levels, range expansion, record dollar volume, and retail pouring into leveraged products like $KORU (3x ETF). SK Hynix hit the 1,000,000 level, Samsung 1 trillion market cap level, etc. This is the "major hype" stage, when everyone can recite the same bullish narrative in my comments when I simply provide a contrarian thesis. Then all of the sudden, the unwind hits. Just as everyone thinks they know the trade, nobody actually does. Study market history enough and you'll find that capitulation and major turning points typically occur long before any signifigant shift in the fundamentals.
Nine retweeted
Muy agradecida por el premio. Además de decir que estamos en el umbral de una posible época dorada, también dije que es probable que, antes, ocurra un colapso financiero en lo que se ha convertido en un enorme casino especulativo global.
“…el mundo está en un momento sumamente difícil. Según mi teoría, estamos en medio de lo que llamo el ‘intervalo de relevo’ cuando hay que crear las condiciones socio-institucionales para la época dorada de la revolución …” @CarlotaPrzPerez bancaynegocios.com/asociacio…
Nine retweeted
My last contact with Mr. Witkoff was prior to his employer's decision to kill diplomacy with another illegal military attack on Iran.
Any claim to the contrary appears geared solely to mislead oil traders and the public.
Nine retweeted
1) to celebrate hitting 10k followers, I'd first like to thank my mystic @calvinfroedge, and my quant @toiletkingcap
2) A lifetime sub to Demystifying Life will be given to a random person who comments and reposts this.
3) I made this article free (it was paid) to show how my newsletter performed. I've given many updates since then & told my stack that I opened a very large position in oil a few days ago. Also called $MUR at $30 recently.
open.substack.com/pub/gavinm…
4) I am not a financial advisor, and my substack isn't about finance. It's the log of a polymaths thoughts, from fitness, health, to geopolitics, and my thinking process about how I hit such ludicrous multibaggers in commodities, it's all in here.
Nine retweeted
Literally, everyone in the Gulf is asking this question, quietly.
These voices will get louder
$3.6tn dollars in Gulf money invested in Washington, and America still pivots ideologically to support Israel, its greatest net consumer of US power in the world
This quoted post is unavailable.
Nine retweeted
I can’t believe we black bagged a narco dictator without considering all available options first, like paying an NGO $100b to put on queer musical theater productions in Caracas
Nine retweeted
My resolutions over the years that truly stuck never began on Jan 1st. Like watching motivational clip, it never lasted.
I battled addiction in my early years, really crippling addiction. And it taught me a lot about change.
A resolution is simply a recognition, a desire for change, and proof we believe we can do better for ourselves.
We all know we’re capable of much more. So I try to focus less on what I want to add in life, and more on what I want to stop.
If I can just remove some negative actions, there is a good chance positive naturally fills that space. It’s that process of stopping the most negative actions that has helped most.
Happy New Year’s to all.
Nine retweeted
Playing “the game” of crypto is how you make wealth in this industry.
And it’s hard af. As it should be.
You play the game by,
- Being early.
- Placing high conviction, speculative bets.
- Sizing large into those bets a few times a year.
- Rotating.
- Catching narrative shifts before they go mainstream.
All with no guarantee of success.
All with a ticking time bomb looming in the background.
It's all gunna go to zero.
You know this. What can you keep before it does?
Most people go all-in on "the game" and accept that there's no guaranteed outcome.
You live with constant pressure of making it now "before the music stops"
You deal with immense stress.
Anxiety. Sleepless nights.
You watch your health decay.
You withdraw from society.
All while understanding there's a 99% chance you won't make it anyways.
No one talks about how you can make the game easier for yourself.
What if I told you that you could remove the ticking time bomb?
What if I told you that you could reduce the stress, anxiety and impending sense of doom?
Well, you can.
- If you specialize.
Specialization is its own uniquely difficult challenge that requires shorter term sacrifice for longer term stress relief.
You must sacrifice some of the game in the name of specialization.
Once you specialize it removes the burden of missing or fumbling.
It puts chips on the table each week.
For me, it was trading.
I came into crypto as a tourist last cycle and got humbled several times. I eventually walked away with some money but realized it was only bc of the bull market.
I had no underlying skill. If there was no bull market, I would make no money. My confidence was at an all time low. I understood that if there was another bull market I would face a similar choice. Make it or lose 4 years of my life.
I made it my priority to never feel helpless again.
I wanted to be able to trade any condition regardless of the market. I didn't want a 4 year time bomb.
“Building in the bear” isn’t just some trite cope line.
It's legitimately the key to your success.
Had I not full time, no life traded the entirety of 2022 during those dogshit conditions I would not be where I am today. I owe everything to that sacrifice.
Now, 4 years later after several profitable trading years. I will be the first to tell you that trading is NOT the most profitable strategy in crypto. Playing "the game" is.
BUT trading allows me to consistently build chips. It reduces the stress and pressure of those hyper intense market situations. It makes me not give a single fuck about cycle tops or bottoms.
Miss a rotation? Whatever.
Miss a meta? Whatever.
There's no shortage of opportunity if you can hang your hat on your skillset.
It doesn't HAVE to be trading though.
This industry has no shortage of opportunity.
Build. Code. Research. Design. Mod. Edit. Meme. Art. Analysis. Content creator. Writer. Educator. Podcaster. Accounting. so on..
Make yourself into a weapon.
If not today, then make sure you do it in "the bear market".
Whatever it is, it’s your edge.
It's your income.
This repeatable skillset becomes your safety blanket. It’s how you extract value from the market consistently. Not just during hype cycles.
Not just when your bags are mooning.
It gives you durability. The ability to stay in the arena long enough to actually catch the big cycles.
It gives you peace.
It relieves the pressure of having to make it NOW and allows you to solve for longevity.
Show up long enough and you will catch something.
Generational wealth requires two things, time in the market and not blowing up.
Most of you will blow up due to the pressure that the game induces.
Playing “the game” might give you a shot at getting rich fast.
But specializing is what keeps you here long enough to let time and experience do its job.
Nine retweeted
When Charlie Kirk invited me onto his show, I had a lot of hesitation. I knew little about him and had heard mixed opinions. I watched a few episodes and saw a decent guy who I often disagreed with but who was respectfully searching for truth.
Charlie had read my book and wanted to talk about it. I agreed to come on under the premise that we wouldn't discuss politics. We had a terrific conversation. Charlie was fascinated by taking cold showers, stoicism, mindfulness—the deeper questions of how to live well. He seemed like a genuinely good guy who cared about more than just politics.
What struck me most was this: Charlie understood that free speech isn't singing kumbaya with people who agree with you. It's about having conversations with those you vehemently disagree with. He made a career out of it—willing to hear and debate anyone.
When I was growing up in the Soviet Union truth was only whispered in the privacy of small kitchens. You could lose your job, be sent to jail, or worse, to the gulag for reading the wrong books or holding the "wrong" opinion. I understand what real oppression looks like—I lived through it.
I once thought America was different—a place where people could disagree, debate, and criticize openly. But that America is fading.
Charlie understood this. He believed in the marketplace of ideas, even when—especially when—those ideas challenged his own.
Today America became less free.
Rest in peace Charlie.
