InfernoWatch

Hello followers, I hope you all are having an exceptionally spooky #Halloween. I am watching the potential for a minor #heatwave to impact #SoCal around the 10th of November. After that, a series of potent storms look to impact much of the state. More on that later. That’s all for now folks. I will make a forecast about the #heatwave on Wednesday (11/04). Other than that, have a great #Halloween.

Hello followers, I hope you all had a very spooky #Halloween weekend. It is looking like a #heatwave is on the way for #SoCal with an added addition of #SantaAnaWinds. The heatwave that is anticipated to impact SoCal looks to begin tomorrow (11/06), and will continue till next Friday (11/13). Heat looks to be up there with widespread averages of 81ºF with areas getting up to 90ºF. As for the #SantaAnaWinds, they look to be starting early tomorrow morning at 3:00 AM. This event looks to be weak to moderate: 20-30 mph sustained winds with 40-45 mph gusts. Winds will gradually diminish Sunday (11/08). Regardless of recent rains, #firewx will be elevated. Current live fuel moisture (LFM) is between 65% and 80%. This––combined with the incoming Santa Ana winds––could lead to elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. The NWS LOX office has noted that there is a 30% chance of "targeted Red Flag Warnings" from Friday (11/06) to Saturday (11/07). That is all for now folks. It is looking pretty mild until at least mid-month. But, here looks to be some potential for systems to start heading down into SoCal at the end of the month as #ElNino kicks into gear here in CA. For additional information, refer to the following forecast discussions from both the LOX and SDC NWS offices: NWS LOX: [forecast.weather.gov/product…] NWS San Diego: [forecast.weather.gov/product…] Over and out, InfernoWatch.

This record El Niño is forecast to peak at +4.1°C in December according to the new CanSIPS run, before fading to neutral or a relative La Niña by July. The tropical Atlantic looks much warmer than average heading into the next Atlantic hurricane season.

Hello followers, models are starting to come to 'somewhat' of an agreement. Are we getting any rain? Yes. We are going to recieve some measurable rainfall. But, it won't be nearly as much as what the hype is making it out to be. Average rainfall totals of 0.25" are expected across #SoCal from #Halloween to the 1st of November. Areas of locally higher rainfall totals (1"+) would be confined to the mountains of #SanBernardino, #Riverside, and #SanDiego. With the largest totals staying offshore. As for thunderstorms: activity looks to be confined to to the CA/NV/AZ state lines with CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) values being no higher than 179 J/kg. That is all for now folks. After this system, there appears to be a quick warmup but then a system follows that. More on that later.

Hello followers, there has been quite the chatter about a potential #Halloween and early #November storm for #SoCal. Is it true? Are we going to actually get any rain? What is the timing? I answer all these questions at length below: Is it true that we're getting rain? Possibly. There is still plenty of discrepancies in the models about rain amounts and storm positioning. The ECMWF has the storm hitting SoCal while the GFS has the storm trekking south into #BajaCalifornia and the southernmost bits of #SanDiego. Some models (like the infamous GFS) has rain amounts in the 0.5"-1" range, while the ECMWF has ~2" totals. I will be doing an additional, follow-up forecast this Wednesday (10/28) to let models come to some agreement. I am however, monitoring the potential for a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (#SSW) event. This could lead to impacts in #SoCal which vary from highly potent, early winter storms or very strong Santa Ana Winds. It depends on how and where everything positions. More on that later. That is all for now folks. As stated above, a forecast will be posted regarding the #Halloween storm for #SoCal on Wednesday (10/28).

WEATHER DISCUSSION: WEST COAST vs. NORTHEAST | HALLOWEEN STORM UPDATE 🎃🌧️ Good morning Followers! The forecast is evolving, and there's a pretty interesting setup developing across the West Coast heading into Halloween. Let's break it down. No hype, just the pattern and what I'm watching. PACIFIC NORTHWEST, #pnw Washington and Oregon remain the more active areas early this week. A cold front pushes through WA Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing additional lowland rain, mountain snow and cooler temperatures. Snow levels in the Cascades could fall to 2,500–3,500 feet, with accumulating snow possible at the passes. Oregon also has additional precipitation chances before the pattern trends drier later in the week. The bigger question is how the Pacific trough evolves and whether subsequent shortwaves dig far enough south to bring more substantial precipitation into California. NORCAL & THE SIERRA The rain signal has weakened across the Bay Area, particularly north of the Golden Gate. Rain chances remain in the forecast late Friday into the weekend, but confidence in meaningful totals is lower than it was a few days ago. The Central Coast has a somewhat better signal, although the focus of the moisture currently favors Southern California. For the Sierra, I'm watching the evolution of the trough, available cold air and snow levels. Don't assume a major snowstorm just because a model paints precipitation over the mountains. #SOCAL: HALLOWEEN WEEKEND IS THE MAIN EVENT 🎃 This is where the forecast is getting more interesting. The latest trends continues to show a very high probability of measurable rain across Southern California this weekend. Here's the timeline I'm watching: Friday, Oct. 30: Rain could begin moving into the region, depending on the system's track and arrival time. I am thinking more Saturday afternoon south of Pt. Conception currently. Saturday, Oct. 31 — HALLOWEEN: Rain could affect outdoor activities, including trick-or-treating. The exact onset and timing of the heaviest precipitation remain uncertain. I am thinking later in the afternoon, see the Euro AI Ens image below, when Rain is forecasted to come into #socal Sunday, Nov. 1, into Monday, Nov. 2: Additional rain remains possible as the system evolves and moves through the region. Rainfall estimates: My thinking is around 1 inch across much of the area south of Point Conception thru Monday, with higher totals possible in foothills and coastal mountain slopes. There's also a 20–30% chance that totals could be roughly double those amounts, per the model solutions Those are preliminary estimates, not a locked-in forecast. The models have been shifting back and forth, and ensemble rainfall projections have backed off somewhat. The track of the upper-level low will be critical in determining where the heaviest precipitation sets up. Again, think back to last week, with that system that effected #socal, as the upper level low turned into a cut off low, and spun around for a few days. That might happen again. IMO, this is a legitimate storm signal worth watching. But there's still a big difference between high confidence that it will rain and high confidence in exactly how much rain any particular location will receive. SANTA ANA WINDS & TEMPERATURES The immediate forecast favors relatively benign weather early in the week, followed by cooler conditions as the Pacific troughing pattern develops. The earlier offshore flow is weakening, and the next system's approach should bring a transition toward cooler, more unsettled conditions. It was 80+ degrees in Santa Monica this weekend, warm to hot days, offshore winds, and mild nights. Again, October has been a very hot month folks, no matter how shammed I got for predicting it was going to be hot, and windy. I'm not expecting the current Santa Ana setup to be the main story heading into Halloween. The bigger concern is the potential for rain and how the system's track evolves. ONE MORE THING: COASTAL FLOODING Southern California is also dealing with exceptionally high astronomical tides through Thursday. Minor coastal flooding is possible, particularly around vulnerable beaches, harbors, low-lying coastal roads and parking areas. Even without a major swell, these tides can cause problems in locations already affected by erosion. Keep that separate from the Halloween storm forecast. They're different hazards with different timing. THE NORTHEAST Meanwhile, the Northeast is looking at a much quieter pattern. High pressure and upper-level ridging should keep much of New York, New Jersey and the Mid-Atlantic predominantly dry through the week. After a weak cold front, temperatures rebound, with highs potentially reaching the upper 60s and lower 70s later in the week, locally warmer in parts of New Jersey. Very different setup from the West Coast. 🧠 THE BIGGER PICTURE: #ELNINO & THE POLAR VORTEX I'm still watching how the Pacific jet evolves as we move deeper into fall. El Niño can influence tropical convection and generate large-scale atmospheric wave responses that affect the Pacific jet and downstream Rossby wave pattern. But the atmospheric response isn't automatic, and one storm doesn't confirm a seasonal pattern. I'm also monitoring the polar vortex and potential stratosphere-troposphere coupling later in the season. Changes in the vortex can sometimes influence the larger-scale circulation, but the resulting pattern—not the vortex alone—is what matters for California. My thoughts: The Pacific Northwest gets another shot at rain and mountain snow midweek. Northern California's rain signal has weakened. Southern California has a much stronger signal for a potentially wet Halloween weekend, while the Northeast remains predominantly dry. The next few days should help resolve the storm track and rainfall distribution. Currently, based on the Euro AI image below, I am thinking midday Saturday, south of Pt. Conception the #rain will start. The USC/Ohio State game will be wet, IMO. PSA - Thank you for the support regarding my thoughts and straight shooting without hype and sensationalist posts that X has become. Some people tho ruin it, by shaming me, and trolling me continually. Personally, I don't have the time nor the patience for this. You will get blocked. If you think my forecasts are trash, and I am a fraud, block me, or I will block you. Some guy, went nuts on me saying that October was was cool and wet month for #socal, and DTLA got 5" of rain already this month. For the record, here is the link for rain totals in DTLA, .59" for the whole month of October.....SMH - laalmanac.com/weather/we13a.… Folks, that is what I am dealing with on a daily basis, delusional people. I will continue to give you my thoughts and will not be influenced one way or another from the social media dweebs that are out there. You know who they are. Good news is, I am going to release my winter outlook on Halloween, so if you want to see it, follow me. More later..... #CAwx #PNWwx #SoCalWeather #NortheastWeather #ElNino #wxtwitter