I am biased. But in an era of "rabbit out of the hat" budgets, some with disastrous consequences, maybe a budget with small changes that help millions in a small way, is actually pretty radical?

Tomorrow, when you see the front pages of the right-wing press telling you how dreadful the budget was, remember their track record. Also remember that right-wingers won’t ever be happy with any budget that doesn’t push down on those at the bottom to benefit those at the top.

Today's budget was music to my ears. Whether you agree or disagree with specifics, it's clear the Treasury has declared victory on Clean Power 2030 and moved to Cheaper Power 2030. That's the right call. We have enough wind and solar farms, and more will come, but unless we focus on getting bills down in the short and medium term, a backlash to renewables is inevitable. That the Treasury is taking the lead on energy bills is interesting too. Some of my favourites: - Scrapping hydrogen levies (I hope all hydrogen projects are scrapped) - Not funding grid projects that cannot be connected - Speeding up grid connections! - And.... *drumroll* Deep reform of energy markets while delinking gas and electricity! 🥳 🥳 🥳 This is the big one. We need modernisation of energy markets to drive down prices. Now we just need government to get on with it and make it happen asap, not 2035.

Nothing ‘throttled’ the U.K. economy more than the xenophobia and stupidity of Brexit making it more difficult for UK companies to compete on a level playing field. Now those who did this damage complain that paying the lowest paid a decent wage is wrecking the economy. Amazing.

Anthropic: “We cannot underscore enough the impact that UK @AISecurityInst has had, and will continue to have, on global AI safety and security.”

If the European Union is good enough for 27 of our nearest neighbours, why not for the UK? If the EEA/Single Market is good enough for 30 of our nearest neighbours, why not for the UK? If Reciprocating Freedom of Movement (the 4 freedoms) is good enough for 31 of our nearest neighbours, why not for the UK? If the/a Customs Union is good enough for 28 of our nearest neighbours, why not for the UK? If the Schengen CTA is good enough for 30 (soon to be 31) of our nearest neighbours (inc our own British Overseas Territory), why not for the UK? If a closer, more convergent relationship to the EU27 is good enough for all - apart from Russia & their new bedfellow - shown in @JohnRConstable 's schematic below, why not for the UK?

Completely daft take - The EU structure is based on localism. MEPs are allocated by region, then there’s regional funding designed to decentralise the support mechanisms (which was a huge help to Cornwall, Wales). Even with trade deals, regions get a say (unlike with UK).

CONFIRMED. Gas Standing Charges to be scrapped. I've just come out of a meeting with the Chancellor. The gas standing charge will be scrapped in 2027 (my guess, either for 1 Oct price cap or the 1 Jan 28 price cap). Having campaigned against the moral hazard of standing charges for years, I'm pleased. It's currently £108 a year. That cost will be shifted onto unit rates. We don't know how much yet, but I suspect just under 1p per kwH. The Chancellor also said he will be talking to Ofgem about how they get rid of the charge on electricity as well, but that is 'trickier' apparently and will take longer. This is primarily about the price cap standing charges. There will still be an open market, so other firms can offer other forms of prices with or without the standing charge. My suspicion is that once it goes on the price cap, it will tend to be reduced on other tariffs as well. As for those on fixes: if you get a fix now, the rate of your fix is fixed, so this should not affect it. You will pay what you pay and if it has standing charges they will continue (some asking if they should delay fixing because of this, no if a fix is right for you and will save you money, don't let this change that - this is about the structure of bills, as opposed to the actual costs on bills). About 60% of people will pay less due to this, 40% more. My guesstimate is the dividing line will be somewhere around 12,500 kilowatt hours of gas (can't know until there is actual pricing). According to a study by Nesta, this switch would leave the majority of people in all income groups under £100,000 better off. Of course, when this does come in, if we're still in the nightmare that we are right now, there will need to be support put in for vulnerable higher users, who will have to pay more. Though hopefully by then the mid-east will have calmed and energy prices lower. --------------- That's all long term. The biggest issue in energy right now is that we're expecting a 27% rise in the price cap in January. I asked the Chancellor whether he will be intervening on that. He told me I'd have to wait for the budget, but reading between the lines, yes, there will be an announcement today. Whether it's an increase in the Warm Home Discount, or whether it's council tax banned, or whether it's done via a payout for people in say council tax bands A-D as a proxy for household income as Rishi Sunak did who knows.

‼️ This FT chart tells the energy story. Britain has transformed its electricity mix. Coal has virtually disappeared. Wind and solar have surged. Yet gas still plays an outsized role and because gas often sets the marginal electricity price, a geopolitical shock in the gas market can still push up bills across the whole system. 🔥 This is the trap. We have partly decarbonised generation without fully decarbonising price formation. @JohnHealey_MP now appears to understand that. Removing standing charges may help at the margin, but the bigger prize is breaking Britain’s exposure to volatile global gas prices, investing in grids, storage, renewables and secure domestic generation, and ending the absurd situation where cheap renewable power can still be priced off expensive gas 👉 and reconnecting to the EU’s Internal Energy Market. Energy reform is cost-of-living policy, industrial policy and national security policy - and climate policy.

The way to minimise uncertainty for UK business is to join the EU. Everything else means a constant flux of negotiation without the full economic benefits of membership.

‼️ Britain has spent years desperately searching for a growth strategy while refusing to confront the enormous economic barrier we erected ourselves. Now the FT Economics Editor asks whether @andyburnham may finally be “stumbling towards a pro-growth policy that actually shifts the dial”. Reintegrating Britain with the European economy. Goldman Sachs estimates: Customs union: around +1% GDP Single Market: around +2–5% GDP The OBR estimates Brexit itself has reduced Britain’s potential productivity by 4%. And the really interesting part is that I nvestors are starting to sit up and pay attention. This is why the argument that reopening Britain’s relationship with Europe simply creates another “dust cloud of uncertainty” gets it backwards. Brexit created barriers, uncertainty and lost investment. Undoing Brexit is the biggest pro-growth reform available to Britain. Fixing Brexit may turn out to be Burnham’s growth strategy. 🇬🇧🇪🇺

Takes an Austrian satirical show to do a bit of proper economic analysis on Farage role in weakening our economy. Pic 1 econ stats. 2. Border chaos. 3. The crypto corrupt stuff. 4. Bankski … Headline asks whether Farage as PM will be GB next mistake? I have my doubts. Undoing it more likely now.

I voted LD against Boris Johnson to stop Brexit in 2019 (and a monstrosity of a Tory PM and local MP), everything Jo Swinson said was correct and she was brave. I’m not remotely LD. If full Rejoin via referendum is offered I’ll vote Labour. And I’m not remotely Labour. It is to the eternal shame of the Tories that they ever became the party of Brexit when 2/3 of their MPs never backed it. I joined, worked for, married in to an outward looking, tolerant party. It’s unrecognisable - the ECHR stuff genuinely mad never mind the rest (Christ) and the cast of characters in charge the very people who routed it - all of them Trussers. I’m always country first, not me, I use my vote for the good of the country and the single best, most transformative thing for this country is to stop staggering along with 2 broken legs and get back in to the EU. I will vote for whoever reverses Brexit and has a chance of forming a majority government. I didn’t like how Burnham arrived and disagree with a lot of his agenda but on Brexit he’s bang on - keep going, give me that referendum tomorrow. I will run to the polling station. I’m not tribal, I’m looking for competence and a strong economy.

Heat pumps: ♨️ 3x more energy efficient than gas boilers 💨 No air pollution ❄️ Work in cold weather - just ask heat pump mega-fans Norway, Finland, and France