JBulkeley

1/ Matches what we're seeing across 9 perp venues. BTC long liquidations peaked near $80M in one hour (94% longs), largest single one $6.2M. 2/ Then OI came back fast: +$683M in the next hour, spread across Hyperliquid, Bybit, OKX and Binance, so not one venue's data glitch. 3/ The tell for who's opening: funding has since slipped below the 0.01% default and the perp premium went flat. That leans toward fresh shorts, not dip buyers. OI alone can't say which side opened, but funding and basis agree with your CVD read.

Undoubtedly, a total downpour on Räbechilbi would be the next possible bearish event. For those not "in the know", Räbechilbi happens once a year in Richterswil, Switzerland Around 30 tonnes of turnips are carved into lanterns. Thousands of illuminated vegetables are then carried through the streets in a nighttime procession. Other than that I can't think of anything.😉😉

Checked this against our own data (9 perp venues, since May). BTC OI is high now, about the 85th percentile, but it's hit today's level 6 times since September. After 5 of them price dipped 2-6% within a week, one ripped +8%. More shakeout than flush, so far.

I looked at every exchange hack of $100M or more since 2018: what BTC’s price did afterwards, and how far the chain was ahead of the news. Here’s what I found: The chain was ahead every time. In all six hacks I could time both ways, the first attack transaction hit the chain before the first public report. Binance on October 29 was 12 minutes ahead. FTX was 1 hour 46 minutes ahead. Price mostly shrugged. In six of the nine hacks I could time to the minute, BTC moved less than 1.2% over the next four hours. The biggest move came with Binance: BTC was 4.6% lower four hours after the first report. These are case studies, not statistics. Scheduled news looked no different. I tested 175 FOMC and CPI releases, with the plan sealed before I read a single price. Their moves lasted no longer than ordinary moves of the same size, as far as eight years of data can tell. Help close the gaps. Three hacks have a date but no time for their first report: BitGrail (2018), KuCoin (2020) and DMM Bitcoin (2024). Do you have the earliest timestamped post for any of them? And what window would you use to measure a hack’s effect on price?

Microwave at the ready 😄

I looked at every exchange hack of $100M or more since 2018: what BTC’s price did afterwards, and how far the chain was ahead of the news. Here’s what I found: The chain was ahead every time. In all six hacks I could time both ways, the first attack transaction hit the chain before the first public report. Binance on October 29 was 12 minutes ahead. FTX was 1 hour 46 minutes ahead. Price mostly shrugged. In six of the nine hacks we could time to the minute, BTC moved less than 1.2% over the next four hours. The biggest move came with Binance: BTC was 4.6% lower four hours after the first report. These are case studies, not statistics. Scheduled news looked no different. I tested 175 FOMC and CPI releases, with the plan sealed before I read a single price. Their moves lasted no longer than ordinary moves of the same size, as far as eight years of data can tell. Help close the gaps. Three hacks have a date but no time for their first report: BitGrail (2018), KuCoin (2020) and DMM Bitcoin (2024). Do you have the earliest timestamped post for any of them? And what window would you use to measure a hack’s effect on price? #hacks #btc #eth #sol

Precisely! After the hack, two independent support/resistence methods agree on BTC price levels. Our S/R oracle reads 120 days of trading for levels price kept returning to. Weekly moving averages come from 682 weeks of closes. When both land on the same number, that's the most robust signal. Pivot Support: BTC $76.2k: with 16 touches, 50-week SMA at $76,199 Pivot resistance: BTC $78.6k: with 12 touches, 50-week EMA at $78,595 SOL $98–99: the strongest single level we track (0.92), with the 20-week EMA and 50-week SMA both at $98 BTC is at $77.5k, exactly between the bands. The resistance levels were last touched on Oct 29, the night prices broke down.

After the hack, two independent support/resistence methods agree on BTC price levels. Our S/R oracle reads 120 days of trading for levels price kept returning to. Weekly moving averages come from 682 weeks of closes. When both land on the same number, that's the most robust signal. Pivot Support: BTC $76.2k: with 16 touches, 50-week SMA at $76,199 Pivot resistance: BTC $78.6k: with 12 touches, 50-week EMA at $78,595 SOL $98–99: the strongest single level we track (0.92), with the 20-week EMA and 50-week SMA both at $98 BTC is at $77.5k, exactly between the bands. The resistance levels were last touched on Oct 29, the night prices broke down. These describe where price has spent its time. They are not a forecast. Ed25519-signed oracle data: myceliasignal.com #BTC #ETH #SOL #crypto #oracle

Classic! After pouring through the Anthropic S-1, me thinks they had a "rethink".......can't wait to compare the filings 🤣

Right. A single venue can drift on its own index or user base. Today Kraken (+0.0155%) and Deribit (+0.0112%) are above the default while the big three sit pinned, which is local. All three moving together would be the market.

Yes, that's the better word. While they're pinned they only tell you the premium is inside the band. The information is in the trip: the first print above 0.01% on Binance, Bybit and OKX together.

Partly fair. A pinned rate says less than a moving one, which is why the composite weights by OI and why Kraken and Deribit, the venues off the default, matter today. But a pin at 0.01% still tells you the premium is small. The print to watch is the first move above it.

BTC funding just reached +0.0101% per 8h, OI-weighted across 9 venues. That puts it in the 98.5th percentile of every snapshot Mycelia Signal has recorded since May 23. The venue detail tells a different story. Binance, Bybit, OKX and Bitget are at exactly 0.0100%, which is the default rate and also their maximum for five months. None of the four has printed above the default since May. The venues above it today are Kraken (+0.0155%), Deribit (+0.0112%) and Crypto dot com (+0.0108%). Funding has climbed from mostly negative back to neutral. The high in our history is +0.0196% on Sep 21, about twice today's level. Ed25519-signed oracle data: myceliasignal.com #BTC #ETH #SOL #DeFi #x402 #crypto #oracle

$78,657😄

I think you meant 1 out of 195 😉

Brilliant idea....... But the opening is being filled as we speak, and not by a new store. Shopify has already switched agent checkout on by default for millions of merchants, and Google, Walmart, Target and others are behind an open protocol that lets any agent buy from any of them. The anti-Amazon wave is forming as a network, not a company. What agents can't route around is Amazon's actual moat, the data: delivery speed, returns, selection. An agent will happily skip Amazon's storefront and ads, then buy from Amazon anyway if it's fastest and cheapest. The startup opportunity is probably in what the agents need to trust the network.

Added perspective

For those watching BTC/ETH/SOL support and resistance price levels closely, here's the latest from our live data #btc #eth #sol

Is "maybe" an option?🤪