Robert

Going for two down nine buys information early. Is it worth it? I’m not so sure. Ohio State scored with 2:12 remaining against USC, cutting a 15 point deficit to nine. They went for two and failed, leaving their estimated win probability under 1% and the game effectively over. The argument for going early is familiar: you’ll likely need a two point conversion after this TD or the next. Attempt it now, and you learn sooner whether you need another possession. I understand that argument. After countless hours digging into this question, I’m still not convinced the estimated advantage is worth it, or if translates cleanly to every situation. There’s an interesting layer here that doesn’t get discussed enough: player and *crowd* motivation. Over the last 20 NFL seasons, with 2:00–8:00 remaining in the fourth quarter, the home/away defensive performance gaps were small or nonexistent when trailing by seven or eight. Down nine, the observed gap was dramatic: home defenses allowed a 12 percentage point higher success rate and 0.22 more EPA per play than away defenses. College shows a similar EPA pattern in that same clock window. Since 2014, home defenses down nine have underperformed away defenses by 0.23 EPA per play. I’ve been in these stadiums and watched plenty of games where the crowd behind a defense down one score sounds dramatically louder than it does down nine. I’ve even looked for decibel level crowd noise data to try to quantify that difference. Down eight, the crowd is all out trying to help its defense get one stop and get the ball back. Everyone can still picture the tying drive. Down nine, many fans are already checked out and/or heading for the exits. I really think that can change the environment in which your defense has to get a stop. Historically, coming back from down nine on defense this late has been exceptionally difficult. There was just one comeback win in 79 NFL cases over the last 20 seasons and one in 102 FBS cases since 2014. Dallas famously recovered an onside kick against Atlanta in 2020. Arkansas returned an Ole Miss fumble for a touchdown in 2017. Both required highly unlikely events. For Ohio State, I think there was another option worth considering: line up for two and try to draw a defensive penalty. Getting half the distance would change the conversion calculation. If there’s no penalty, take the delay and kick the extra point from five yards farther back. My preference in this late down nine situation would be that route: hard count, delay if necessary, extra point, then kick off normally and defend an eight point deficit. At home, the possibility of losing the crowd would make me lean even further that way. Knowing what you need sooner has value. I’m not convinced we’ve established how that value compares with everything else that could change when the scoreboard says nine instead of eight.