A student of causal inference
Geneva, Switzerland
Joined January 2012
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- Following394
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@yudapearl @eliasbareinboim I like @PhilDawid's idea of viewing causal inference as "the task of predicting what would happen under a hypothetical future intervention". Putting aside "attribution" questions, answering rung 3 questions is useful for improving future decisions 1/n
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@nantermod je vous ai entendu sur la lamal et psychothérapie. D'accord avec vous que psychiatres doivent décider et non généralistes. Pourquoi ne pas aussi découpler la personne qui décide de la pertinence d'une thérapie de la personne qui la donne?
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@_MiguelHernan Question what if 3.2: "randomization ensures that the independent predictors of the outcome are equally distributed between the treated and the untreated groups." Is covariate balance really necessary for randomization to produce exchangeability?
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@_MiguelHernan @yudapearl @eliasbareinboim How can I incorporate variables that are deterministic or functional constructions of other variables (change of variables) in causal graphs? Say I have some SCM including Y_1 and Y_2 and I define G=Y_2-Y_1 how can G be incorporated? 1/2
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@pdfviewerapp am a paying customer, love the app, is it possible to create or modify the table of contents? (I am on Mac desktop)
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@yudapearl What is the DAG where assignment is decided based on the outcome var Y at a previous time, introducing confounding? We put radars (T) only on high accident frequency (Y) junctions, we find a reduction in accidents. So Ypast-> T but what is backdoor path from T to Ynow?
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Some fantastic work presented here, including a do-calculus for level 3 of the ladder of causation by @eliasbareinboim !
Our weekly harvest of CI papers brings us 9 pages of new titles: ucla.in/3Xddueh.
I am particularly excited by @eliasbareinboim and Correra's causalai.net/r115.pdf
which offers (1) A sound, complete, and efficient procedure for testing conditional independences among counterfactual variables, and (2) a sound and complete calculus for identifying counterfactuals from observational and experimental distributions.
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@yudapearl @eliasbareinboim why is ETT: Effect of Treatment on the Treated P(Yx = y | X = x′) considered similar in kind (rung 3) to something like P(Yx = y | X = x′, Y=y') or P(Yx = y | Y=y') when it can be estimated using interventional data? Basically, shouldn't it be rung 2?!
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@quantumciaran Hi Ciarán, I really liked your talk on counterfactual reasoning youtu.be/AZaBM6IcKyE?t=902 and had a question.... 1/2
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Nice connection between causality and storytelling!
Students at NYU asked the creators of South Park the million-dollar question:
“What makes a good story?”
They gave one of the best explanations of story I’ve heard:
“If we can take the beats of your outline, and the words ‘and then’ belong between those beats… you got something pretty boring.
What should happen between every beat you’ve written down is the words ‘therefore’ or ‘but.’”
They go on to say, “That gives you the causation between each beat, and that makes a story.”
Point 1:
There’s an idea in storytelling called ‘Promise, Progress, Payoff.’
Essentially, a story is a never ending cycle of promises that are paid off over the span of the story.
It’s a cycle of expectation and resolution. Cause and effect. Conflict and progress.
Point 2:
A story isn’t a bunch of random events thrown together.
A story is a series of but / because / therefore moments.
A famous example:
• Harry discovers he's a wizard. Because of this, he goes to learn magic at Hogwarts.
• But then he learns Voldemort wants to kill him and rule the world.
• Therefore, he must find a way to defeat him.
Point 3:
The ‘But / Therefore’ concept works in layers.
You can apply it at the line level, paragraph level, or whatever your largest unit of story is – be it chapter, Act, or whatever.
I’m reminded of a Hemingway quote:
“Prose is architecture, not interior decoration.”
Great writing is intentional. It doesn’t wander. It builds upon itself.
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@UVEK_DETEC le site de l'OFEN semble avoir un problème bfe.admin.ch/bfe/fr/home.htm…
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@TPGeneva le tram 18 est toujours plein à craquer et il n'y en a pas assez fréquemment.
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Latest episode is out!
Learn the basics of Design Thinking on the latest Product Quest Podcast w/ @WermuthYann and @JonNichEdwards featuring Gretchen Goffe
linkedin.com/posts/product-q…
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Start-up -> Scale-up
Latest episode out!
With @FrankMattes
Learn how to scale up new product initiatives with Frank Mattes on the latest Product Quest Podcast
linkedin.com/posts/yannwermu…
@JonNichEdwards @WermuthYann
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Latest episode is out
Come hang out with the PQP crew, @WermuthYann , @JonNichEdwards and I and Eric Eskey as we get into advanced topics in #jobstobedone
linkedin.com/posts/scottburl…
Latest episode is out! With @wilg ! One of the minds behind the book "The Corporate Startup". We talk about her new book "Innovation Accounting"
But HOW do we measure ROI?
Listen to author Esther Gons @wilg as we learn how to answer this question on the latest Product Quest Podcast.
@WermuthYann @JonNichEdwards
productquestpodcast.com/
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Latest episode is out, be sure to check it out: on cybernetics and innovation/design @paulpangaro is amazing!
I hadn't heard the term "cybernetics" before this podcast, but see it as the intersection btw control theory & jobs-to-be-done.
Must listen if in #productmanagement or #cx
Thanks @paulpangaro for spending time with @WermuthYann @JonNichEdwards & I on the Product Quest Podcast
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New episode is out! A fantastic discussion about product lead growth (not growth hacking!)
Learn about Product-Led Growth from dynamo @LeahThar on the Product Quest Podcast, Ep#35
open.spotify.com/episode/7xP…
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🔥🔥Latest episode out🔥🔥
If you want to learn about how to build stuff that people want, this is a good place to start
If you use jobs-to-be-done, seek to be an expert in FRAMING PROJECTS
To learn from one of the most experienced in the world, listen to Product Quest Podcast Ep43 - w/ Rob Schade, Chief Customer Officer at @Strategyn
Search "Product Quest Podcast" on your podcast app
The connection between UX and JTBD is a natural one. Listen to our discussion with @wolframnagel exploring these connections.
With @WermuthYann and @newproductdog
productquestpodcast.com/e/ep…