Jud Verno

Morning, baseball fans. Another bootleg offer rejected by the Players Union. Same old song and dance. I lived this in 1994. We walked out August 12 with a salary cap at the center of the dispute, and we lost the rest of the season and the World Series. Here we are, 32 years later, arguing over basically the same thing. Different numbers, same fight. Meanwhile, Forbes estimates the average franchise is worth $2.9 billion—more than double what it was a decade ago. Those values grew under the system we already have. I believe pushing those franchise values even higher is a big part of what the owners want here. And when owners talk about operating losses, show us the whole picture. Smart business owners take advantage of legitimate tax benefits, related businesses, media interests and real estate. A loss on the baseball operation alone doesn’t tell us ownership’s total return. Show us those numbers, too. Don’t sell a salary cap as making everybody equal, either. Football has a hard cap, and some teams use nearly every dollar of their available room while others leave tens of millions available. Basketball has a cap and a floor, yet the Knicks’ cap payroll is roughly $221 million compared with $160 million for the Nets. That’s a $61 million difference between two teams in the same city. A floor can force spending up, and a cap can limit the top, but neither guarantees a competitive organization. You still have to scout, develop and make good decisions. A salary cap doesn’t do that work for you. Here’s what I’ll be watching before December 1: which clubs get their rosters built. If the smart organizations aggressively get their business done before transactions freeze, I’ll take that as a sign they’re expecting to play. If the market barely moves, I’ll be more concerned they’re preparing for a long fight. Here’s my prediction: there’s going to be a lockout, and it’s going to drag through the winter. Spring training won’t start in February. It’ll get pushed to the second or third week of March, and the season will start a little late. Then both sides will look at the money they’re about to lose and say, “Enough. We can’t drag this out any longer.” They’ll get a deal done, and it’ll be pretty close to the system they have now. That’s my call. I’ve seen this fight before. Enough posturing. Get it done. #TheHugeShow #SheGone03