Just a Value Investor

From Li Lu's book: At the beginning of the new year in 2016, I watched the movie "The Big Short". Adapted from the novel of the same name by Michael Lewis, the film tells the legendary story of the few investors who first discovered the 2007-2008 subprime mortgage crisis and the loopholes in the entire financial system of the United States, and started shorting to profit. I have personally experienced many of the events involved in the film; I have more or less intersected with the various characters in the film, so watching it gives me a more immersive sense of reality, which also triggers some thoughts. From 2005 and 2006, I personally discovered the product of credit default swaps (CDS) due to accidental reasons. After doing some research, I was also planning to enter on a large scale and sell short through CDS. Later, after several conversations with Charlie Munger, this idea was gradually dispelled. The reason for Charlie’s objection is also very simple: if my analysis is correct, it means that in the end, either the counterparty of these products, those large financial companies may not be able to cash out due to bankruptcy; or these large financial institutions are approved by the government. The taxpayers' money has been saved. At this time, the money you earn is actually taxpayers' and government's money, so you are not at ease. Later, the results really confirmed Charlie's judgement. The money earned from the largest short position in history was actually obtained directly or indirectly from taxpayers around the world. So I have never regretted not earning taxpayer money. Investment itself is a prediction of the future. Although the prediction is correct, it will bring some pleasure to some extent, but the results of different ways of making money are still different. Later, after the publication of this book by Michael Lewis, I had several exchanges with Charlie and talked about the decision at that time. He said that if you made a lot of money doing CDS at that time, you may still be looking for a new CDS today. A big short opportunity. Human nature is like this.