Chuck Hollis

Your generation missed out on the ultimate chill music youtube.com/watch?v=ZJkNsWCa…

"Somewhere Over The Rainbow" usually gets the nod. More than a few people think this is the best recorded version. Can't watch it without crying. youtube.com/watch?v=2rd8VktT…

The market decided that Dems doing well in the midterms wasn't exactly the best outcome. AI stonks hit hardest. But it's not so bad so far, just a periodic reality check for the optimists out there. What goes up also comes down. The SP500 basically gave up all of its returns since August of this year in one day. Tomorrow should be interesting.

I like to use "shoveling dirt" to demonstrate technological progress. It's unglamorous work but it's something humans have been doing since the very beginning. Now apply the same scaling metric (shovel to robot fleet) to super intelligence. Imagine what you could get done.

Theoretically, Canadians should be as wealthy - or wealthier than - their US counterparts. Indeed, Canadian per-capita GDP was on a tear until about 2011 when oil prices collapsed. Canada decided to invest in more housing and services for immigrants instead of industrial capacity, believing that was the best way forward. It wasn't. My wife's family is from the Toronto area, so I get a direct view into how Canadian govt policies directly affects their lives. It's very European. They really notice the difference when they come to the US. It's cold up there, you might say. Things are different. Well, so is Alaska and they're doing far better. First chart is US vs Canada per capita GDP. Second chart is Alaska vs Canada per capita GDP. It looks like Canadians voted to be poor, just like their European counterparts.

Lots of these perfectly reasonable starter homes where I live in FL. You're about 20 minutes from the beach and adjacent to I-95 for commuters.

LLMs are a reflection of how we think, for better or worse. Changing the value of a few intermediate "neurons" can produce wide swings in behavior. The more I study LLM behavior, the more I learn about human behavior.

There's the small matter of major earthquake faults

This one sort of sums up the 60s for me youtube.com/watch?v=o6IEgrQ4…

One of my favorite Muskisms is the ability to predict the future being the highest form of intelligence. I've given that a lot of thought, and it's painfully true. I've seen many otherwise bright people get blindsided by easily predictable events. "What happens next?" can be really hard for some. AI (now evolving into true super intelligence) won't trigger mass unemployment, but will force many to be supervisors rather than individual contributors. Every bot team needs a human involved. There's a limit to how much bot work a human can inspect. More bots, more human supervisors/inspectors. No supervisors paid to pay attention, no useful bot work. Just like with human workers. The total amount of useful work performed by the workforce (a rough proxy for GDP) will increase by one order of magnitude, or more. Plenty of jobs for those who can do it, or are willing to learn. Bot herders will be paid much more than non-bot herders for obvious reasons. The predictions around having to work less and make more are likely the most accurate ones.

I am reminded of how we all felt when we first started seeing images of Earth from space. Once again, we've invented technology that reminds us just how small we are.

Dance parties grok.com/imagine/post/7b14bb…