Isaiah 41:10 - Jesus is Lord - crypto since 2015, decentralized finance enjoyer, knows very little about development, previous @crazycrowsclub, @meraki_gen_art
⚡️ On-chain
Joined June 2021
- Tweets4.2K
- Following1.2K
- Followers1.4K
- Likes22.1K
I’m so glad this kalshi piece is getting so much attention and that fgt icobeast getting his just rewards.
This thread is 100% gonna blow up and I am gonna look like a salty c****again but @icobeast pissed me off so now it's gonna get ugly
Kalshi fakes their crypto volume and I can prove it
NOTHING pisses me off more than watching a company treat its own customers like complete fucking idiots
Grab some popcorn cause I dissected every piece of evidence one by one until there’s basically no way for him to respond without making this look even worse
Oh and FYI, I left every source at the end so y’all can check the receipts yourselves 😘
1/x
kingmaker retweeted
This thread is 100% gonna blow up and I am gonna look like a salty c****again but @icobeast pissed me off so now it's gonna get ugly
Kalshi fakes their crypto volume and I can prove it
NOTHING pisses me off more than watching a company treat its own customers like complete fucking idiots
Grab some popcorn cause I dissected every piece of evidence one by one until there’s basically no way for him to respond without making this look even worse
Oh and FYI, I left every source at the end so y’all can check the receipts yourselves 😘
1/x
This is John Mcafees alt
I am not going to motivate you because if you need motivation from a stranger on a plane the answer is stay
but I will give you the game theory
your corporate M&A gig is a repeated game with diminishing marginal returns. year 1 you learn everything. year 2 you refine it. year 3 you are executing pattern recognition. year 4+ you are being paid more to do the same thing with slightly larger numbers. the learning curve flattens but the golden handcuffs tighten because every year the comp goes up and the opportunity cost of leaving gets more painful on paper
this is a classic status quo bias trap. the payoff of staying is known and comfortable. the payoff of leaving is uncertain and scary. so you stay not because staying is optimal but because the asymmetry of regret is lopsided. you can imagine regretting the leap. you cannot as easily imagine regretting the years you stayed too long because that regret builds slowly and never hits you in one moment
here is where game theory actually helps:
in your M&A seat you are playing someone else's game. the firm sets the rules, the deal flow, the comp structure, the promotion timeline. you optimize within their framework. you are a very well-compensated player in a game you did not design. your upside is capped by whatever the partnership or MD economics look like. your downside is protected by a salary. that is the trade
owning a local business flips the entire payoff matrix. you design the game. you set the rules. the downside is real and unprotected but the upside is uncapped and compounds in ways a salary never does because you own the equity. a $2M EBITDA business bought at 4x and grown to $3M EBITDA over 3 years is worth $12-15M on exit. no M&A salary trajectory produces that kind of wealth creation in that timeframe unless you are a founding partner
the Nash equilibrium of your current situation: you and every other M&A professional are competing for the same promotions, same deal credit, same bonus pool. the competition is fierce because the players are identical. same schools, same skills, same hours. you are in a crowded equilibrium where everyone works 80 hours to stay in the same relative position
local business ownership is a different game with different players. the competition is a 62-year-old owner who stopped innovating in 2014 and a 35-year-old who inherited the business and does not want to be there. you walk in with financial sophistication, deal structuring experience, and the ability to read a balance sheet faster than anyone in the room. you are overqualified for the game which is exactly where you want to be. the best strategy in game theory is to play games where your existing skill set gives you an asymmetric advantage over the other players
the timing question is about optionality. every year you stay in M&A your financial optionality goes up slightly because you save more. but your operational optionality goes down because you get further from the reality of running anything. the M&A guy who leaves at 28 adapts to operations in 6 months. the one who leaves at 38 has a decade of habits built around delegating to analysts and reviewing decks, and managing a P&L feels foreign in a way it would not have 10 years earlier
but again. if you need me to motivate you, stay. the people who actually do this do not need motivation. they need a spreadsheet that shows the math works and then they cannot NOT do it. if you have the spreadsheet and you are still asking strangers for motivation the spreadsheet is not the problem
X literally changes one part of the algorithm and nearly achieves World Peace uniting Japan and the US over BBQ and cars and culture. ようこそ
kingmaker retweeted
Pretty confident that you want to get out of the way of the market / these IPOs
The S&P will not just add these private valuations on top of it, it will need to make room for them by selling other things off
Just another factor amongst the other factors to be super cautious on equities at the moment
Discussed on @modernmarket_ how retail participation in these will NOT be for charity
"There is no money left to get to a $1.75 trillion valuation."
@BCheque1 on why SpaceX opening up 30% to retail isn't generosity. It's a liquidity problem.
The same pattern everywhere. Crypto collateral mortgages. Trump baby accounts. Private credit funds restricting withdrawals.
When they start inviting retail in, ask why.
Clip from the @modernmarket_
Accounts that are a large part of the reason the app is a terrible user experience are now spending less time in the wasteland they created. Time will heal things soon.
Such an ick too when they say “crypto content” has gone to zero. Not a single one of those accounts even understand crypto ethos and what would embody crypto content. Gotta make up some narrative I guess.
Good riddance.
Find myself spending less and less time here.
Crypto content has basically gone to 0. Most crypto accounts have switched to normieslop or techslop or claude-written articles that are 700 words of empty nothingness about something random.
Barely ever see my friends’ posts because of all the constant algo changes, and there’s always some random person in my replies asking if a screenshot of a trade setup is an undisclosed shill 💀
Overall just an utterly terrible user experience.
This place was awesome 6 months ago (and even last month wasn’t too bad), but the last few weeks on here have been almost unusable
kingmaker retweeted
Look at this image carefully. You are looking at a Chinese commercial satellite photograph of Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia. Every red box is an artificial intelligence model identifying a US military aircraft by type. Every label is in Mandarin. And the base you are looking at is the one Iran fired ballistic missiles at on Saturday night.
A company called MizarVision, founded five years ago in Hangzhou, published this. Not the Pentagon. Not the CIA. Not a classified intelligence briefing delivered to the Situation Room. A Chinese startup with access to sub-meter resolution Earth observation satellites and an AI object detection model that can distinguish a KC-135 Stratotanker from a KC-46 Pegasus from orbit.
Aviation Week confirmed what the image shows. Fifteen KC-135 aerial refueling tankers. Six KC-46 Pegasus tankers. Six E-3 Sentry airborne early warning aircraft, which is significant because only thirty one E-3s remain in the entire US Air Force inventory worldwide, meaning roughly a fifth of America’s operational AWACS fleet is parked on a single ramp in the Saudi desert. Two E-11A Battlefield Airborne Communications Nodes. C-130 Hercules transports. C-5 Galaxy heavy lifters. The backbone of Operation Epic Fury, catalogued from space and published on Weibo.
This is the base that Iran targeted. AFP journalists in Riyadh reported explosions in the eastern part of the capital with thick smoke rising. The Saudi Foreign Ministry condemned Iranian attacks targeting Riyadh and the Eastern Province. Saudi air defenses intercepted the projectiles. But the image you are looking at was published days before the strike. Which means Iran had exactly the same intelligence picture that MizarVision gave the entire world for free.
This is what the democratization of intelligence looks like. In 1991, only the United States could see individual aircraft on a ramp from space. In 2003, a handful of nations had that capability. In 2026, a Chinese startup publishes annotated satellite imagery of American force dispositions on social media, and Aviation Week runs the analysis before the first missile is fired.
Defence Security Asia captured what this means: sub-meter resolution imagery distinguishing individual aircraft types fundamentally alters the secrecy calculus of pre-strike deployments. You cannot mass two hundred aircraft across half a dozen bases and keep it secret when commercial satellites photograph every ramp twice a day and AI models label every airframe before an analyst finishes their coffee.
The age of hidden buildups is over. Every deployment is now observable, catalogued, and published in near real time by companies with no security clearance and no allegiance to anyone. The next war will not be planned in secret. It will be watched from orbit by everyone, in every language, simultaneously.
open.substack.com/pub/shanak…
Loved this dude and his mission especially since Kabutos are great, but selling out and supporting one of the biggest scammers across all mediums lost my follow and support. This bitch and his bitch brother should be shunned from all society. Sad day.
Look what just arrived!
Thank you for supporting the collection @LoganPaul This is an absolute GRAIL Kabuto 👑
Are you listening anon
The CEO of Anthropic says nobody is paying attention to what's about to happen.
"The most surprising thing has been the lack of public recognition of how close we are to the end of the exponential.
To me, it is absolutely wild that you have people talking about the same tired old hot button political issues...
We're near the end of the exponential."
kingmaker retweeted
we're making @blocks smaller today. here's my note to the company.
####
today we're making one of the hardest decisions in the history of our company: we're reducing our organization by nearly half, from over 10,000 people to just under 6,000. that means over 4,000 of you are being asked to leave or entering into consultation. i'll be straight about what's happening, why, and what it means for everyone.
first off, if you're one of the people affected, you'll receive your salary for 20 weeks + 1 week per year of tenure, equity vested through the end of may, 6 months of health care, your corporate devices, and $5,000 to put toward whatever you need to help you in this transition (if you’re outside the U.S. you’ll receive similar support but exact details are going to vary based on local requirements). i want you to know that before anything else. everyone will be notified today, whether you're being asked to leave, entering consultation, or asked to stay.
we're not making this decision because we're in trouble. our business is strong. gross profit continues to grow, we continue to serve more and more customers, and profitability is improving. but something has changed. we're already seeing that the intelligence tools we’re creating and using, paired with smaller and flatter teams, are enabling a new way of working which fundamentally changes what it means to build and run a company. and that's accelerating rapidly.
i had two options: cut gradually over months or years as this shift plays out, or be honest about where we are and act on it now. i chose the latter. repeated rounds of cuts are destructive to morale, to focus, and to the trust that customers and shareholders place in our ability to lead. i'd rather take a hard, clear action now and build from a position we believe in than manage a slow reduction of people toward the same outcome. a smaller company also gives us the space to grow our business the right way, on our own terms, instead of constantly reacting to market pressures.
a decision at this scale carries risk. but so does standing still. we've done a full review to determine the roles and people we require to reliably grow the business from here, and we've pressure-tested those decisions from multiple angles. i accept that we may have gotten some of them wrong, and we've built in flexibility to account for that, and do the right thing for our customers.
we're not going to just disappear people from slack and email and pretend they were never here. communication channels will stay open through thursday evening (pacific) so everyone can say goodbye properly, and share whatever you wish. i'll also be hosting a live video session to thank everyone at 3:35pm pacific. i know doing it this way might feel awkward. i'd rather it feel awkward and human than efficient and cold.
to those of you leaving…i’m grateful for you, and i’m sorry to put you through this. you built what this company is today. that's a fact that i'll honor forever. this decision is not a reflection of what you contributed. you will be a great contributor to any organization going forward.
to those staying…i made this decision, and i'll own it. what i'm asking of you is to build with me. we're going to build this company with intelligence at the core of everything we do. how we work, how we create, how we serve our customers. our customers will feel this shift too, and we're going to help them navigate it: towards a future where they can build their own features directly, composed of our capabilities and served through our interfaces. that's what i'm focused on now. expect a note from me tomorrow.
jack
kingmaker retweeted
earth full gameplay guide and review:
- takes 3 years to unlock voice chat
- tutorial takes 18 years
- banned at level 60-80
- can’t respawn
- pay to win
- good graphics, no lag
- can’t choose your own spawn server or username
- signing up takes 9 months
