Lanka Lens

Bay of Bengal Weather Update (13–16 Nov): What’s Really Happening with the "Twin" Circulations? 🌀🌧️ If you’ve been following my wind-stream animations over the last couple of days, you probably noticed what looked like two separate swirling systems east of Sri Lanka. A common question has been whether the western swirl would act like a magnet and drag the main system straight into Sri Lanka. Here is the full breakdown of what the latest model animation (Nov 13–16) and official meteorological bulletins show: 1. Not "Twins" — Just One Broad System Consolidating In early stages, a developing monsoon low often produces multiple localized eddies inside a single, broad cyclonic envelope. As seen in the 13–14 Nov frames, the weaker western spin center doesn't pull the stronger eastern low toward Sri Lanka. On the contrary, by 15 Nov, the two circulations fully merge into one dominant, well-organized core, followed by a significant intensification. 2. Official Intensification Timeline (IMD) 13–14 Nov: The low-pressure area over the southeast Bay of Bengal consolidates into a well-marked low-pressure area. 15 Nov (Morning): Expected to officially concentrate into a Depression over the central and adjoining south Bay of Bengal as the merger completes. 16 Nov (Evening): Forecast to intensify further into a Cyclonic Storm over the central Bay of Bengal (visible as the tight, high-wind green/yellow core in the final frames). 3. Projected Track & Steering Rather than being dragged westward into Sri Lanka, subtropical steering winds are guiding the consolidated system north-northwestwards into the central Bay of Bengal, keeping the storm's center offshore to the northeast of the island. 4. What This Means for Sri Lanka & Surrounding Coasts: Even without a direct landfall, the broad outer wind field and rainbands still bring significant weather impacts: Heavy Rainfall: Expect spells of heavy rain across parts of northern, eastern, and central Sri Lanka starting 15 Nov as outer bands sweep across the island. Rough Seas & Wind: Sri Lanka's Department of Meteorology has issued warnings for naval and fishing communities off the northern and eastern coasts (from Kankesanthurai to Hambantota via Trincomalee and Pottuvil) starting 14 Nov due to squally winds and rough seas. Stay safe, keep an eye on official updates from the IMD and Sri Lanka Met Department, and drop any questions below! 👇

Unfortunately, it looks like the trajectory pointing toward Andra Pradesh, India - yet again!

Although they appear to be two distinct air disturbances, they are from the same and are about to merge to become a single one - unless it has happened already. They still can defy the models, though!

Skies over Iran 11:00 GMT! #Iran

Suspected unauthorized drone activity around US Air Base in the UK! Sirens have been activated! #USAirports

Miracle: everyone has been rescued! bbc.co.uk/news/live/cqgm0w9y…

FAA halts flights at US airports due to 'extraordinary circumstances' dailymail.com/sciencetech/ar… via @DailyMail

US Air Force base in the UK on alert!

Flight services disturbed across the United States!

🔴Nationwide Ground Stop in the United States! #Fights

This is terrible! Let's hope they all will be rescued. 🙏 #cruiseship

🛢️ Crude Drops on Rising U.S. Stockpiles and OPEC Output Amid Stalled Iran Talks Crude oil prices have fallen substantially over the past two weeks, a trend analysts attribute to the prevailing relative calm in the Middle East. While the political rhetoric remains as heated as ever, the public has largely grown weary of hearing the same arguments repeated by both sides. On Thursday, the prices of WTI and Brent were at $88.70 and $95.60 respectively, before the markets closed. For more on this, please click the following link: oilfutures.co.uk/2026/11/cru… #srilankannews #OOTT

🌀 The "Dancing Disturbance": New Bay of Bengal System Keeps Forecasters Guessing! A cyclonic circulation over the South Andaman Sea is expected to organise into a low-pressure area on Nov 13 and intensify into a depression by Nov 15. The same model that accurately predicted twin cyclones Arnab and Murasu points toward a final path for Bangladesh and Myanmar—though this unpredictable system could still defy the forecast and shift tracks. Key details: • Shifting paths: Models are weighing tracks toward Tamil Nadu/Andhra Pradesh or a recurve toward Bangladesh/Myanmar. • Marine alerts: Rough seas and 40–60 kmph winds expected Nov 14–15. Fishermen advised to avoid the central and southern Bay of Bengal through Nov 17. • Rainfall: Heavy spells forecast for the Andaman & Nicobar Islands, with showers picking up along India's east coast and Sri Lanka this weekend.

The rise and fall of a true visionary! Very sad, indeed! 🤐 #JensenHuang