Layman Geopolitics

NEW: Iran and Russia are cooperating to counter US efforts to stop weapons shipments to Iran via the Caspian Sea and land routes. Iran has used its Caspian Sea trade routes with Russia to import Russian arms before and during the 2026 US-Israel-Iran War, which prompted Ukraine to strike a shipment in July 2026. (1/2)

MORE: The scale of these deployments suggests that the PLA is conducting a major exercise that simulates isolating Taiwan. The number of vessels involved and the geographic range of their deployment are greater than the PLA’s most recent exercise around Taiwan — Justice Mission 2025. The coordination of surface forces from the Eastern, Northern, and Southern Theater Commands is rare. Major PLA exercises targeting Taiwan since 2022 have largely centered around the PLA’s Eastern Theater Command, the organization primarily responsible for Taiwan-focused operations. The presence of four major surface groups beyond the first island chain from three separate theater commands could represent an effort to coordinate the principal surface combatants of all three coastal theater commands in a single far-seas operation. The positioning of major PLAN combatants in the West Pacific, between Guam and Taiwan, and combined PLAN and CCG forces conducting a closer encirclement of Taiwan also follow patterns from previous PLA exercises. Strait Thunder 2025a, for instance, involved an “inner” encirclement of Taiwan alongside a carrier strike group operating between Taiwan and Guam. The recent PLAN maneuvers could improve the PLA’s ability to effectively deter or prevent outside forces from reaching Taiwan during a contingency by preparing its coastal theater commands to coordinate their forces during such an operation.