All eyes on $88k, break $88k decisively and we likely see new ATHs in less than three months. Imagine going into price discovery in Q1 of the pre-rehalving year. We won’t be stopping at $200k, $444k is in play.
I believe Bitcoin will make a new ATH within 90 days, and here's why.
When Bitcoin climbed from -50% below its all-time high back to -30%, it made a new ATH within 75 days (median 24). Every time. 100% hit rate across all macro regimes and conditions.
It never went to a new cycle low first.
The -30% mark is about $88,000. I think once it passes that, probably later this month, a new ATH is imminent.
I did this research with the help of bluroo ai
My podcast conversation with @chasepalmieri. We discuss all the tough questions posed by $MSTR and $STRC shareholders, including competition, returns, innovation, and @Strategy's vision.
00:00 Introduction to Strategy and CJ's Role
01:07 Proposal for Daily Dividends and Market Innovation
04:59 Upcoming Shareholder Vote and Future Plans for Daily Dividends
06:05 Balancing Bitcoin Per Share and Total Return Objectives
09:28 Strategy's Approach to Dividend Rates and Market Demand
11:58 Managing USD Reserves and Market Shocks
15:10 Leverage, Liquidations, and Market Risks
18:46 Market Recovery and the Role of Buybacks
21:47 SATA vs. STRC and Market Dynamics
23:47 Investor Perspectives on Digital Credit Instruments
25:39 Strategy's Ecosystem and Future Growth
30:43 BTC Ratings, Coverage Ratios, and Market Perception
34:05 Collaborative vs. Competitive Digital Credit Ecosystem
38:30 Strategy's Innovation and Future Product Development
43:33 Communication Strategies and Shareholder Engagement
46:22 Potential for a Strategy Podcast and Transparency
48:14 Institutional and Retail Communication Efforts
50:13 Risks of Media and Market Discourse
52:17 Preparing for Bull and Bear Markets
54:18 USD Reserves and Yield on Cash Holdings
55:27 Long-Term Growth and Cash Flow Needs
58:08 Strategy as the JPMorgan of Bitcoin
59:27 Future of Bitcoin as Collateral and Lending
1:00:23 Leadership and Succession Planning
1:04:04 CJ's Vision for Strategy and Market Leadership
1:05:54 Where to Follow Strategy and CJ on Social Media
Eric retweeted
The future of Bitcoin is the future of finance.
This morning at the World Bank, I joined Chris Brummer, Founder & CEO of The Fintech Foundation, for a 25-minute fireside chat at DC Fintech Week. @fintechthinksdc
00:52 - Strategy as a reserve institution built on Digital Capital, Digital Credit, and Digital Equity
01:32 - Bitcoin as Digital Gold, Digital Capital, and the foundation for a new financial system
03:19 - Strategy as a private central bank for the crypto economy
06:54 - Manufacturing Digital Credit backed by USD reserves and Bitcoin
08:08 - Return of capital, tax-deferred dividends, and scalable fixed income
09:17 - How Digital Credit amplifies Bitcoin per share for $MSTR equity holders
12:17 - Bitcoin headwinds and tailwinds: policy, liquidity, bank adoption, and AI capital flows
13:12 - Bitcoin-backed bank credit and the impact of $10B in new lending
16:20 - The triple reflexive flywheel: Bitcoin price, reserves, credit risk, and equity premiums
18:25 - Quantum risk, AI hacking, and why Bitcoin can upgrade when consensus forms
MSCI told the SEC it “expresses no opinion or view as to whether any market, company, strategy, or investment is good or bad.” Yet its recent efforts sure seem to express the opinion that Bitcoin is bad. This is bigger than Bitcoin. $21 trillion is benchmarked to MSCI indexes.
NEW FINDINGS: We took a close look at MSCI’s effort to exclude Bitcoin treasury companies from major stock indexes.
We found an internal project trail buried in a public document, years of ESG advocacy, and proposed rules that could reach far beyond Bitcoin.
Our new paper, “Wall Street’s Invisible Committee,” documents what we uncovered and provides recommendations for policymakers.
MSCI reports an astonishing $21 trillion benchmarked to its indexes. When its committees change which companies qualify, funds tracking those indexes must adjust their holdings. A methodology decision can trigger billions in reallocation.
Here’s what we found.
𝟭. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗻𝗲𝘄 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗼𝘀𝗮𝗹 𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗰𝗮𝗿𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗴𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗷𝗲𝗰𝘁’𝘀 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗻𝗮𝗺𝗲.
In 2025, MSCI proposed excluding Digital Asset Treasury Companies (DATCOs) holding at least half their assets in digital assets. After substantial opposition, it shelved the proposal.
It later returned this year with a broader, facially neutral test for “non-operating companies.” MSCI’s own simulation would exclude Strategy and Metaplanet.
We examined the public consultation PDF and found something revealing in its embedded metadata.
The source presentation’s internal file path includes—
“Projects/DATCOs/Operating vs Non Operating”
A proposal presented as a general classification rule retains a source-file path explicitly associated with the category targeted by the earlier exclusion effort.
While metadata alone cannot prove the outcome was predetermined, it raises a direct question for MSCI. Were these criteria developed to classify companies consistently, or engineered to reach the same exclusions against digital asset companies through a broader rule?
𝟮. 𝗠𝗦𝗖𝗜 𝘄𝗮𝘀 𝘀𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗮𝗹𝗮𝗿𝗺 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 “𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗲𝗽𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗰𝗿𝘆𝗽𝘁𝗼” 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀 𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗿.
We traced its public record back to an October 2021 article titled “Creeping Crypto.”
MSCI publicly warned about cryptocurrency exposure entering equity portfolios, described most cryptocurrencies as “speculative investments with little evident utility,” and flagged Bitcoin’s Proof of Work as environmentally dangerous.
They identified 26 exposed public companies and promoted tools for screening additional exposure. Singled out at the very bottom of their ESG rankings... was Strategy.
While the article did not call for exclusions, it does establish that an internal belief at MSCI that Bitcoin and digital asset companies were an ESG concern four years before proposing to remove digital asset treasury companies.
𝟯. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗹𝗶𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗮𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗱𝗮 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗰𝗵𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗲𝗼𝗽𝗹𝗲 𝗿𝘂𝗻𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗯𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀𝘀.
CEO Henry Fernandez has repeatedly, publicly proclaimed the urgent importance of ESG investing. In 2021, he recounted urging bankers to “refuse to take a company public or do a bond offering” without a net-zero pledge.
MSCI’s leadership also combined responsibility for ESG and index governance. Its then-head of indexes described an ambition for its flagship global index to become “green, one company at a time.”
These statements do not prove the motive behind today’s proposal. They make the boundary between MSCI’s advocacy and its broad-market index decisions a serious governance question.
𝟰. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗱𝗶𝘀𝗰𝗿𝗲𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁 𝗔𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮’𝘀 𝗻𝗲𝘅𝘁 𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝗳 𝗶𝗻𝗱𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗿𝘆.
The proposed test relies on “operating assets” without a sufficiently clear, reproducible classification framework.
How should it treat a satellite awaiting launch? A mine under construction? Capital raised to build a factory?
Our analysis shows how plausible interpretations could disadvantage emerging, strategic industries before they have the chance to compete.
Americans buying broad-market funds deserve transparent rules, reproducible decisions, and meaningful accountability from the committees deciding what they own.
Read the full findings and our recommendations below ↓
btcpolicy.org/articles/wall-…
-54%
This is the number I've been thinking about for weeks. What does it mean? Last bear market reached lows at -77% off the highs. Previous ones even worse. #BTC has been heavily defined by these brutal, long bear markets. However, that narrative is now changing. The -54% bear low marks a significant change in #BTC behavior and dramatically affects the story being told about it.
None of us know what it means yet, but I think in two years we will look back and realize -54% was the turning point. A shift where #BTC could not even put in a low -60% off the highs. A shift where investors look at #BTC and realize -50% is now the floor, with the possibility the next bear could be as shallow as -40%. This narrative is taking shape right now and I think it's going to take us much higher than any of us expect. Accelerate. $MSTR
BREAKING: 🇺🇸 CNBC IS TELLING ITS MILLIONS OF VIEWERS #BITCOIN IS SETTING UP FOR A PARABOLIC MOVE
"TRADERS ARE BETTING ON NEW BTC ALL-TIME HIGHS BY DECEMBER"
THE BULL CASE IS BACK 🚀













