Macro Policy Lab

𝐇𝐨𝐥𝐝, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐲 𝐀𝐥𝐞𝐫𝐭: 𝐏𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐲 𝐏𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐚 𝐓𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐁𝐢𝐚𝐬 PIDE’s September Monetary Policy Assessment supports maintaining the policy rate at 11.5 percent. Headline inflation rose to 11.1 percent in August, while urban and rural NFNE core inflation reached 8.8 percent and 8.5 percent, respectively. Trimmed inflation also increased to 8.9 percent in urban areas and 9.1 percent in rural areas. Higher fuel prices have added to transport, production and household costs, increasing the risk that the initial price shock could spread across the economy. However, the evidence does not yet show generalized demand overheating. Economic recovery remains uneven, recent credit movements largely reflect seasonal adjustment, and short-term Treasury-bill yields remain close to the policy rate. External buffers also provide some room for patience. The policy message is clear: hold now, but do not ease. A rate increase should remain available if core or trimmed inflation accelerates, price increases broaden persistently, inflation expectations deteriorate, or exchange-rate and reserve pressures intensify. Read More: pide.org.pk/research/septemb… @nadeemjavaid75, @betterpakistan, @PlanComPakistan, @GovtofPakistan, @ShujaatSohal, @SMNaeemNawaz, @FaheemJehangir, @Fizzscreams #PIDE #MonetaryPolicy #Inflation #SBP #PakistanEconomy

Hold on: The Time for Policy Patience Is Not Over PIDE's latest Monetary Policy Assessment recommends that the State Bank of Pakistan (@StateBank_Pak) maintain the policy rate at 11.5 percent at its upcoming Monetary Policy Committee meeting. Although headline inflation has eased to 11.1 percent, underlying price pressures remain persistent, with elevated core inflation, volatile weekly prices, and higher petroleum costs continuing to pose upside risks. At the same time, economic recovery is gaining traction but remains uneven, with weak large-scale manufacturing suggesting limited demand-side inflationary pressures. Market signals also support a cautious approach. Treasury-bill yields remain closely aligned with the current policy rate, while improved reserves and strong remittance inflows provide policy space despite continuing external vulnerabilities. PIDE's policy recommendation is clear: maintain the policy rate at 11.5 percent. A gradual easing cycle should begin only when disinflation is firmly established, inflation expectations are well anchored, and external sector stability is sustained. Read more: pide.org.pk/research/july-20… @nadeemjavaid75 @betterpakistan @PlanComPakistan @SMNaeemNawaz @wajidislam01 @AmnaRiaz616 @FaheemJehangir @Fizzscreams #PIDE #MonetaryPolicy #PakistanEconomy #SBP #Inflation #EconomicPolicy #MacroPolicyLab

𝗣𝗜𝗗𝗘 𝗥𝗲𝗺𝗶𝘁𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗶𝘁𝗼𝗿 𝗥𝗲𝗺𝗶𝘁𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗻𝗴, 𝗯𝘂𝘁 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗸𝘀 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗶𝘀𝘁. Pakistan recorded $3.83 billion in remittances in March 2026, reflecting a 17% month-on-month increase, though slightly down on a yearly basis as compared to March-25. Overall, inflows have reached $30.3 billion in 9MFY26, up 8% YoY, indicating continued resilience. However, nearly 70% of remittances originate from a few key countries, including KSA, UAE, USA, and the UK, highlighting a critical need for diversification in overseas employment markets. With steady growth trends and rising inflows, the focus must now shift towards expanding labor corridors to emerging Asian economies and strengthening long-term sustainability. @nadeemjavaid75, @betterpakistan #PIDE #Remittances #EconomicInsights #PakistanEconomy

𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐚𝐥-𝐥𝐞𝐝 𝐠𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐭𝐡 𝐝𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲 Strong performance in manufacturing, electricity, gas & water supply, and construction pushed industrial growth to 7.40% in Q2 FY2025-26, making industry the primary driver of overall growth. 𝐔𝐧𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 While services remained stable, agriculture grew modestly (1.76%), with gains driven mainly by livestock, as crop-related activities continued to underperform. 𝐑𝐢𝐬𝐤𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐠𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐭𝐡 𝐦𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐮𝐦 Despite overall growth improving to 3.89%, rising energy costs and regional uncertainty pose downside risks to industrial sustainability and broader economic stability. 𝐏𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐲 𝐌𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐚𝐠𝐞 Growth remains industry-led but fragile. Sustaining momentum requires: •Protecting industrial activity from rising input and energy costs •Strengthening agricultural productivity, particularly in crops •Maintaining stability in services to support overall growth 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐓𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐚𝐰𝐚𝐲 Pakistan’s recovery is gaining pace but remains uneven. Long-term, sustainable growth will depend on balancing industrial strength with agricultural resilience. @nadeemjavaid75, @betterpakistan, @PlanComPakistan, @GovtofPakistan, @SMNaeemNawaz, @FaheemJehangir, @Fizzscreams #PakistanEconomy #EconomicGrowth #IndustrialGrowth #EnergyCrisis

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐢𝐭𝐨𝐫 𝐄𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐠𝐲-𝐝𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐧 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐰 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐲 𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐤 𝐝𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐫 The surge in Housing & Energy (11.5%) and Transport (12.5%) highlights strong fuel price pass-through—making inflation more vulnerable to external shocks. 𝐂𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐫𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐬 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐥𝐲 𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐤𝐲 Rising costs in Health, Education, and Miscellaneous signal deeper structural pressures—not just temporary fluctuations. 𝐏𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐲 𝐌𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐚𝐠𝐞 Inflation is increasingly structural and energy-led. Addressing it requires a balanced strategy: * Cautious monetary policy * Targeted energy pricing * Supply-side interventions 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐭𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐚𝐰𝐚𝐲 Stabilizing inflation now means tackling its structural roots, not just managing demand. @nadeemjavaid75, @betterpakistan, @PlanComPakistan , @GovtofPakistan, @Financegovpk, @SMNaeemNawaz, @wajidislam01 #InflationMonitor #PakistanEconomy #PIDE #EconomicPolicy #Inflation #EnergyPrices

𝗠𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗴𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗢𝗶𝗹 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝗰𝗸𝘀: 𝗣𝗮𝗸𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗻’𝘀 𝗙𝗶𝘀𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗸𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗣𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘆 𝗖𝗵𝗼𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 Oil shocks are not temporary disruptions for Pakistan; they are a direct fiscal risk. PIDE’s latest Policy Viewpoint by Dr. Nasir Iqbal, Dr. SM Naeem Nawaz and Amna Riaz shows that even a moderate oil shock can significantly reduce the primary surplus and widen the fiscal deficit, putting stability at risk. Pakistan needs a credible and timely fiscal response to manage oil price volatility. Read more: pide.org.pk/research/managin… @nadeemjavaid75, @betterpakistan, @drniqbal, @SMNaeemNawaz, @AmnaRiaz616 #PIDE #PakistanEconomy #FiscalPolicy #OilPrices #IranUSA

Join @PIDEpk for upcoming seminar on “𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗲𝗻𝗴𝗲𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗟𝗼𝘄 𝗦𝗮𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗣𝗮𝗸𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗻" Our distinguished panel of experts from @StateBank_Pak and PIDE will discuss the root causes of Pakistan’s persistently low domestic savings: from low per-capita income, high consumption, inflation and fiscal deficits, to weak financial inclusion and behavioral factors identified in SBP’s own analysis. Date & Time: December 10, 2025 (Wednesday) at 02:00 PM (PKT) Venue: JCR Hall, PIDE Online Participation via Zoom ID: 825 1833 1615 | Code: 988095 Don’t miss this discussion on a critical structural issue affecting investment and long-term growth in Pakistan. @nadeemjavaid75, @betterpakistan, @SR_Jamali, @Haider_PIDE, @Kalhorozulfiqar #PIDEseminar #PIDE_SBP #PakistanEconomy #Savings #LowSavings

Empowering tomorrow’s leaders! 🚀 Under the Prime Minister’s Laptop Scheme, high-achieving students received laptops to accelerate their learning, strengthen their talent, and expand their future possibilities. Speaking at the ceremony, @PIDEpk Vice Chancellor Dr. Nadeem Javaid (@nadeemjavaid75) congratulated the recipients and remarked: “We are now in an era where access to technology isn’t a privilege — it’s a prerequisite for success. A laptop in a student’s hands is not just a device; it’s a bridge to knowledge, opportunity, and national transformation.” @betterpakistan, @PlanComPakistan, @hecpkofficial, @GovtofPakistan, @karimeconomist, @drniqbal, @Kalhorozulfiqar #PIDE #LaptopScheme #DigitalPakistan #YouthEmpowerment #EducationForAll #FutureReady #HighTechEra

𝐏𝐈𝐃𝐄 𝐒𝐞𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐫 𝐁𝐫𝐢𝐝𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐆𝐚𝐩𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐏𝐚𝐤𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐧’𝐬 𝐀𝐈 𝐑𝐨𝐚𝐝𝐦𝐚𝐩: 𝐎𝐩𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐮𝐧𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬, 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐧𝐠𝐞𝐬, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐖𝐚𝐲 𝐅𝐨𝐫𝐰𝐚𝐫𝐝 Discover how AI can drive Pakistan’s growth by addressing opportunities, overcoming policy challenges, and building an inclusive roadmap for the future. 𝐒𝐩𝐞𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐫𝐬: • Ms. Suniya Shahid - CEO & Co-founder of @Techvention_ae • Dr. Aneel Salman (@SalmanAneel) – OGDCL- @IPRI_Pak Chair, Economic Security • Dr Najeeb Ullah (@DRNajeebullahM) – Member, Science & Technology, @PlanComPakistan • Dr. Naveed Iftikhar (@navift) – Co-Founder, @atomcamp 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐨𝐫: • Mr. Wajid Islam (@wajidislam01) – Research Economist, @PIDEpk 𝐃𝐞𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐥𝐬 𝐚𝐫𝐞: 📅 October 1, 2025 (Wednesday) 🕑 2:00 PM (PKT) 📍 JCR Hall, PIDE 🌐 Online Audience can join via Zoom: Meeting ID 825 1833 1615 Passcode: 988095 Facebook Live: facebook.com/PIDEIslamabad @nadeemjavaid75 @betterpakistan @PlanComPakistan @Kalhorozulfiqar #PIDE #AIStrategy #Innovation #Technology #Development #ArtificialIntelligence

Pakistan risks losing market share if it keeps exporting unskilled labor. To stay competitive, it must shift to high-value sectors & align its workforce with host countries’ needs. By Amna Riaz Research Economist at PIDE. @nadeemjavaid75 Read more: brecorder.com/news/40380971

A Newspaper Article on "A fragile global recovery: what it means for Pakistan?" by @AmnaRiaz615 , Research Economist at PIDE, published in Business Recorder. @nadeemjavaid75 @betterpakistan @Kalhorozulfiqar #Pakistan #IMF #trade #Tarrif Read more: brecorder.com/news/40376271/…