The Israeli government formed at the end of 2022 was not merely a coalition of political convenience. It represented a convergence of interests, united by a common imperative: the removal of judicial restraints on the exercise of power. For Netanyahu, the destruction of judicial independence offered a path towards weakening the Court capable of holding him accountable, not least in relation to his own corruption trial. For his Likud colleagues and coalition partners Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, the same project offered an opportunity to entrench Jewish supremacy, consolidate permanent domination over Palestinians, and pursue territorial acquisition and dispossession without meaningful legal constraint. For the ultra-Orthodox parties, the bargain was different but no less consequential: the preservation of generous public subsidies, secured in exchange for sustaining a government committed to dismantling the constitutional restraints that might otherwise stand in its way. What began as an assault on judicial independence became something considerably more consequential. An increasingly permissive environment for the commission of atrocity crimes. In Gaza, this has been accompanied by a campaign of physical destruction on an unprecedented scale. In the West Bank, by entrenching annexation, dispossession, forced displacement and violence against Palestinians. The relationship between these developments is not merely chronological, following from October 23'. The weakening of domestic legal restraints and the intensification of unlawful conduct towards Palestinians are, in my assessment, constituent parts of the same political transformation. A State progressively freed from meaningful internal accountability is a State increasingly willing to disregard its obligations under international law. And yet, I believe we are still witnessing the beginning of this transformation, not its conclusion. The coming months may prove decisive. The foundations for the enduring, irreversible, entrenchment of Israel as a colonial tyranny are set by the entire spectrum of would-be governing parties. It would be comforting to believe that this is a temporary aberration, that the restoration of judicial independence alone would restore the rule of law, or that a change of government would necessarily reverse the direction of travel. I see little basis for such confidence. The structures of domination over Palestinians long predate the present coalition. What this government has done is to accelerate their consolidation, remove remaining inhibitions and expose the intimate relationship between authoritarianism within Israel and colonial domination beyond its recognised borders. None of this means that the future is predetermined. But change for the better will not simply follow from the passage of time, the holding of elections or the replacement of one political leadership with another. Politics is as much about hope as it is about power. But hope must not be confused with reassurance, still less with wishful thinking. There is no virtue in false hope, and no prospect of meaningful change founded upon a refusal to confront reality. Hope, if it is to have any political or moral significance, must begin with an unfiltered assessment of the facts and the interests at work. This is mine.

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