Interests: Data. Python. Economics. Social Policy. Politics. Australia. Caveats: Not financial advice. Opinions my own. Likes ≠ endorsement.

Canberra, Australia
Joined March 2012
I often see people who argue that Austrlia is in stagflation. Yes there are issues at the moment. But they are nothing like the 1970s to 80s Stagflation period.
5
13
761
The Phillips curve looks like it might be changing. Shifting up? Something to keep an eye on.
1
12
833
The median for the latest quarter growth by expenditure class looks a bit elevated.
384
Quarterly CPI movement by expenditure class
1
1
12
667
Mark 🇦🇺 retweeted
1% Q/Q for the trimmed mean - yep it looks like the RBA will hike another 25bp at their next meeting.
1
6
16
1,356
Mark 🇦🇺 retweeted
There are some signs of slowing in new dwelling price rises (its getting harder for builders to raise prices), but there are still more CPI items with inflation above 3%yoy and the trimmed mean inflation rate (which strips out big rises like petrol) seems stuck well above target.
4
5
29
2,813
CPI rose 4.3% in the year to September 2026 Find out more abs.gov.au/media-centre/medi…
4
9
1,375
1% Q/Q for the trimmed mean - yep it looks like the RBA will hike another 25bp at their next meeting.
1
6
16
1,356
Mark 🇦🇺 retweeted
Replying to @ChauDave
We actually covered the S-1 filing announcement and what's in the filing here: xitter.cf/AGTPinsights/status/21…
Anthropic just made its S-1 public today. Here's what you need to know. The filing went to the SEC on Oct 26 and Anthropic announced it on X. It plans to list on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the ticker ANT. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and J.P. Morgan lead the deal. The price range and share count are not disclosed yet. The registration statement has not become effective, so no shares can be sold yet. The financials are now public. H1 2026 revenue was $16.3B, up from about $1.1B a year ago. The net loss was $80.7B, but most of that came from accounting charges. The filing also shows a $974M operating profit and $131.7B in cash. The compute bill is huge. Anthropic agreed to spend up to $120.5B with SpaceX's AI unit for access to Nvidia chips. Once all capacity is delivered, expected in December 2026, it pays about $3.1B a month. The deals run into 2029. The filing also covers customers and control. Roughly one-fifth of revenue came from two customers. Founders keep 50.1% of the voting power through a founders' company. About 80 of the 261 pages are risk factors, including a warning that AI could pose catastrophic or existential risks to humanity. Key numbers: - ~250 customers pay over $10M a year - 1,900 customers pay over $1M a year - 11,900 customers pay over $100K a year - $6.6M revenue per employee, per one investor's read - $2.08 of revenue per $1 of compute, up from $0.40 in Q1 2025 Reports point to a listing in mid-November, with a possible valuation near $2T.
1
1
218
Mark 🇦🇺 retweeted
Q3 trimmed mean CPI Last: 0.8pc Mkt f/c: 1pc Range: 0.9pc to 1pc Core inflation expected to hold at around 3.6pc in the 12 months to September Q4 headline inflation could well be lofty again with fuel costs leading the way; disinflationary pulse forecast to kick in only in CY2027 RBA has hiked 4 times already this year, but has openly flagged a further hike as likely…the path of least regret
1
2
5
995
Mark 🇦🇺 retweeted
The endless cost of living discussion is always selective and mostly focussed on elect/gas/petrol. Rarely discussed is how cheap some categories are eg kids tshirt $2.25!
21
3
3
67
3,514
Why is inflation sticky and domestically driven? With zero productivity growth since 2019, wages can only rise about 2.5% a year without pushing up costs. Private wages are rising 3.1%. That gap (about half a point) has been there since 2022. It has narrowed from about 1.5 points in late 2023, but not closed. Wages are rising faster than 2.5% inflation plus what productivity can absorb. It's the same with public sector pay included (3.2%), but private wages are the better signal: they track the labour market far more closely than public pay. The fix isn't necessarily slower wages growth. A return to even 1% productivity growth would lift the benchmark to 3.5%, and today's wage growth would sit below it. [Note: corrects an earlier tweet from me, since deleted].
4
4
34
2,124
Mark 🇦🇺 retweeted
There are obviously people struggling in Australia financially but 1/3 households struggling to put food on the table as these articles suggest is nonsense.
29
16
1
208
13,386
Mark 🇦🇺 retweeted
It’s just very disappointing the RBA didn’t have the gumption to seriously tackle inflation in 2022 and 2023, sure the Middle Easy would be causing issues now but domestic inflationary pressures (of which there are still many) would have largely been contained.
Just reading the transcript of the Sarah Hunter interview with 60 Minutes, another rate hike is clearly coming, quite possibly several more too.
15
3
1
147
5,524
This is a terrific and terrifying read from @insteconomics Australia truly is the anti-Abundance nation It's self-inflicted damage We keep shooting ourselves in the foot and then wondering why we can't sprint anymore
Planning regulations add $42,000 in compliance costs to an attic renovation -- for no discernible benefit (other than as a make-work scheme for consultants). stephenkirchner.substack.com…
26
66
4
475
26,679
Robert Hall and Michael Woodford have won the Nobel prize in economics. I discuss some of Woodford's work in the context of what Scott Sumner calls the Princeton School in this post stephenkirchner.substack.com…
3
4
601
THE RESERVE BANK ON 60 MINUTES TONIGHT … suggests to me there’ll be a Melbourne Cup rate rise 60 Minutes: “Haven’t we done enough [to stop inflation from being high]?” The RBA: “Not quite yet”
25
13
1
114
7,774
Daily dwelling prices from @cotality_au This will not stop that RBA from raising rates in November. And it shouldn't. If the inflation outlook is "materially worse" then a material policy response is warranted and a lone 25bp hike in September isn't enough.
12
8
1
111
6,054
Mark 🇦🇺 retweeted
Petrol prices falling a little. Diesel remains elevated.
1
2
10
840