@MerrynSW

UK Wealth, Editor at large, Bloomberg. Ex Ed in C @Moneyweek. Ex Columnist/Contrib Editor @FT Opinions personal. NED: THRG and Schroder https://xitter.cf/t.co/ojIBNzZwBO #SharePower

Joined August 2010
Stop being polite to your AI agent. No more please and thank you. It's a machine not a person. Treat it like one. This really matters (for the future of humanity...) bloomberg.com/news/newslette…
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Merryn Somerset Webb retweeted
Coincidentally the average British worker has seen his taxes rise from one of the lowest rates in the OECD to one of the highest rates In just a few years
Replying to @YouGov
Increasing public preference for tax and spending cuts is primarily driven by 2024 Tory and Reform voters % saying govt should decrease taxes and spend less on public services Reform: 50% (+16 from Jun 2025) Con: 44% (+21) Lib Dem: 17% (+6) Lab: 14% (+6) Green: 10% (+4) yougov.com/en-gb/articles/55…
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Shocking shocking shocking. The U.K. establishment is a mess.
My @thetimes column: An incredible tale of how an ancient royal charter charity founded to look after London’s bridges was hijacked by left-wing causes We may not have feral youth on the street, but make no mistake: this is looting With @lfg_uk times-comment.com/3b6d00ae
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Shocking shocking shocking. The U.K. establishment is a mess.
My @thetimes column: An incredible tale of how an ancient royal charter charity founded to look after London’s bridges was hijacked by left-wing causes We may not have feral youth on the street, but make no mistake: this is looting With @lfg_uk times-comment.com/3b6d00ae
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Read. And worry.
Official figures out this morning report that last month, the UK government borrowed £24.5 billion. But the fineprint shows that almost £11 billion of that extra borrowing went on debt interest payments. That's more than £400 per household on debt service costs, in September alone. So far during this financial year, from April to September, the government's debt interest payments amount to £61 billion. Now, this number will barely feature in UK newspapers and across our airwaves. It may be mentioned in passing in out-of-the-way business sections, or on the odd business bulletin. But this huge debt interest bill won't register with the vast majority of our political and media class, or impact the national debate. Let me explain why that's so wrong and so dangerous ... £61 billion is a massive amount of money. It's equivalent to the UK's entire annual defence budget – the money we're paying, increasingly to foreign creditors, simply to service our national debt for six months, not to pay any of it back. £61 billion is equivalent to the money you'd raise over a year from adding a whopping 7 pence to the basic rate of income tax. For £61 billion, you could build around 40 large, state-of-the-art hospitals, or employ more than 100 thousand extra nurses for ten years. £61 billion would pay for free-at-the-point of use social care for everyone who needs it in the UK, for an entire year – three times over. Again, this is the debt interest bill on Britain's spiralling national debt – now more than 3 trillion pounds – over the last six months alone. The UK's public finances are close to meltdown – yet so many MPs and journalists continue blithely to view ever more public spending and borrowing as the answer to every problem. Those who highlight the dangers post by our hugely precarious national accounts are dismissed as cranks, ideologues or worse. But basic arithmetic has no ideology. And there is nothing "progressive" or "kind" or "right-on" about driving the UK ever closer to the fiscal cliff edge, provoking a crisis that will make the "austerity" years of the 2010s feel like a picnic, a crisis in which poorer households will suffer the most. Yes, Britain's national debt is lower than that of France. But because our borrowing has been rising so sharply, and because we're so prone to inflation, our debt service costs are much higher. The UK is spending a disgraceful 3.6pc of GDP on public debt interest, while France spends less than 2.5pc. Endless airtime and column inches are devoted to spurious conversations about a billion or two of additional "fiscal headroom" we may or may not have in three years' time. And, of course, any "extra headroom" is immediately pledged in new spending – which means yet more borrowing. These conversations are a waste of time – and, in fact, are deeply counterproductive. Three-year fiscal forecasts, even one- and two-year forecasts, routinely turn out to be askew by tens of billions of pounds. I'm not saying we don't need fiscal rules - we do, but we need more immediate rules, which actually bite, acting as a meaningful constraint on out-of-control borrowing and spending. Instead, political and media sages present the nation with spuriously precise discussions about fictional fiscal outcomes way into the future – using rules which are deliberately designed to kick arithmetic realities into the long grass .... An increasingly expensive, over-bearing, out of control state is not the answer to Britain problems. But unless we change course, it will certainly be our downfall. Please like/share if you think what I'm saying is important – and if fiscal realities should feature more prominently in our national debate. And for more sharp, plain-speaking economic analysis subscribe to: "When The Facts Change - economic and politics in a fast-moving world, with Liam Halligan"
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Fascinating. What's changed in Scotland?
This is important - the latest huge MRP poll has Restore Britain ahead in more Scottish constituencies than both Reform or the Tories. Restore Britain - 21 Conservatives - 13 Reform - 12 Tie - 11 Edinburgh, Glasgow, Motherwell, Midlothian, Dunfermline, Renfrewshire, Rutherglen, Inverclyde, Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy, Coatbridge and Bellshill and more. Incredible progress. We have the second largest party membership in Scotland, and are now polling ahead of both the Tories and Reform in terms of seat performance. This is remarkable. Restore Britain is now the second largest party in Scotland, and the largest party on the right - bigger than both Reform and the Tories. Scottish patriots finally have a genuine alternative.
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And exports are...bad?
🚨 NEW: Energy Secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh is reportedly set to reject Rosebank for oil drilling in the North Sea She believes it would do less for UK energy security than Jackdaw as most of its oil would be exported
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Merryn Somerset Webb retweeted
You would have thought less carbon intensive gas compared to imported LNG would be welcomed by environmentalists. It is economically rational and environmentally sound to supply the UK’s ongoing gas demand through the lowest carbon-emitting sources.
Protesters from Fossil Free London outside the DESNZ building “Jackdaw: Burnham’s Betrayal” “Andy, say NO to Rosebank”
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Merryn Somerset Webb retweeted
To make this chart even clearer: from 2001 to mid-08, real annual wage growth averaged 2.3%. From mid-08 to late 2014, real wages fell by 1.1% annually on average. And from late 2014 to now, real annual wage growth has averaged 1% (and been more volatile).
If you want to know why folk in the UK seem to be grumpier than they were before the 2008 financial crisis, a chart of real wages goes a long way. Prior to 2008, real wages rose consistently and strongly. Since then? Sporadic and unpredictable. bloomberg.com/news/newslette…
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Merryn Somerset Webb retweeted
UK inflation, Sep '26: on the punchy side (PPI stronger too) CPI: 3.5% (BoE tgt 2%), vs 3.4% forecast. (Aug was 3.1%). Core CPI: 2.8%, vs 2.8% forecast. (Aug 2.6%). RPIX: 3.9% (old BoE tgt, 2.5%), no forecast. (Aug 3.3%).
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If you think about the cost of immigrant workers in the care system in terms of wages plus long term welfare/benefits for them and family with ILR....it might be significantly more financially efficient for the state to top up care worker wages to the extent that our unemployed fancied it. No one's that into it for 20k. What about 50k? 75k?
Care homes have long ran a business model based on an ability to pay unskilled wages for skilled (and exhausting) work. They can do so because of the implicit offer of a visa Mahmood is right to call time on this. If jobs are not domestically attractive, employers must do better
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Finally
NEW: The Jackdaw gasfield will be given the go-ahead on Wednesday, signalling Andy Burnham’s commitment to the North Sea fossil fuel industry and threatening to trigger a row with climate campaigners and Labour MPs. Story by @kiranstacey theguardian.com/environment/…
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7.1m people. Even if that is out by a million it's still extraordinary. And, key point...we have not expanded our infrastructure or public services to match.
🌍 European countries that added the most migrants (2000–2024) 1. 🇬🇧 United Kingdom: +7.1M 2. 🇪🇸 Spain: +6.8M 3. 🇩🇪 Germany: +6.4M 4. 🇹🇷 Türkiye: +5.8M 5. 🇮🇹 Italy: +4.4M 6. 🇫🇷 France: +3.0M 7. 🇦🇹 Austria: +1.4M 8. 🇳🇱 Netherlands: +1.4M 9. 🇨🇭 Switzerland: +1.3M 10. 🇧🇪 Belgium: +1.3M 11. 🇸🇪 Sweden: +1.3M 12. 🇵🇱 Poland: +917K 13. 🇮🇪 Ireland: +840K 14. 🇳🇴 Norway: +720K 15. 🇷🇴 Romania: +521K 16. 🇵🇹 Portugal: +476K 17. 🇩🇰 Denmark: +475K 18. 🇭🇺 Hungary: +393K 19. 🇨🇿 Czechia: +386K 20. 🇫🇮 Finland: +378K Europe's migrant population grew by 40.8 million between 2000 and 2024, up 67%. The UK, Spain and Germany together account for almost half of that increase. Source: UN DESA
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Merryn Somerset Webb retweeted
If you want to know why folk in the UK seem to be grumpier than they were before the 2008 financial crisis, a chart of real wages goes a long way. Prior to 2008, real wages rose consistently and strongly. Since then? Sporadic and unpredictable. bloomberg.com/news/newslette…
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Merryn Somerset Webb retweeted
My usual (frustrating) chart on labour market report day. . . . this is totally unsustainable! Who is better off since Labour won power? #labour #ukeconomy #ukmacro
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Basically buying indulgences at this point.
We’re committing a portion of Anthropic’s shares to the Anthropic Public Benefit Fund, a new wholly owned entity dedicated entirely to the public benefit. It will start off with 5% of our shares. For every 50% increase in the company’s value over a set baseline, we can contribute up to an extra 2%, subject to our board’s discretion. In total, this means that roughly 20% of Anthropic’s shares are committed to the public good. Our co-founders have already pledged to donate 80% of their equity, and around half our employees are donating a portion of their equity as part of a donation matching program we’ve run since our founding. In the post below, we share more details about our new fund. anthropic.com/news/public-be…
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Centuries of evidence that rent caps are awful. But apparently we need more. Because most modern politicians are economic history denying idiots. Here is some. economicaffairs.co.uk/p/berl…
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This is quite funny. They've tried everything else. Now have to flirt with rationalism.
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