David Paul

This is pretty awesome! Drone video of the thunderstorm approaching Troy, Alabama, Wednesday evening, November 4. Thanks to Dillon Braun for sharing!

After this week’s rain system departs, we’re going to be dry for a while across the South and beyond. A couple high pressure systems move in next week, bringing cooler air and lower humidity. At some point the wetter pattern that’s typical of an El Niño cool season across the Gulf Coast will probably kick-in, but it’s not going to happen over the next 10-14 days or so. 🙅

Looking for rain? 🌧️ There’s not much hope thru October 30 for a large portion of the eastern half of the country. The pattern does look to change starting next weekend (10/30-11/1) and into early November. There’s a much wetter signal showing up in the long-range modeling. Until then, dry with comfortable temps! ☀️

Planning for Halloween? 🎃 I’ve been tracking the long-range pattern which looks to turn warmer than normal for late-October into November. Instead of showing actual temperatures this far out, the best way to envision this is by using the temperature anomalies in the ensemble data. 👻 A big chunk of the country east of the Rockies looks to average 5-15° above seasonal norms at Trick-or-Treat times. 🍬 🕷️ This means if your local temperature is normally 45°, you could see middle 50s. 🎃 If your normal temp is 52°, you could see middle 60s. 🍭 If evening temps are normally around 65°, like the South, the kids could be running house-to-house in 75° weather. 🍭 💧The wildcard is rain. Warmer than normal air this time of year can bring in moisture and rain chances, which looks possible from parts of Texas to the Great Lakes.

I’ll be shocked if this isn’t at least a subtropical storm on Wednesday. The ingredients are there, the transition is occurring. The modeling (HAFS-A here) shows a warm core even at 500 mb (~18,000’) by later Wednesday.

This is so cool!

Modeling is consistent in showing the developing low pressure off the East Coast taking on subtropical characteristics this week. 🌀 A pretty good warm core could develop over the Gulf Stream, which could make it purely tropical for a period. Later in the week the high pressure to the west with an incoming trough should push the system to the ENE, away from the US. ☀️ The Southeast US benefits the most with lots of sunshine all week and pleasant temperatures. Mornings will be cool with widespread 40s.

So often a taste of cool air arrives and then disappears after a couple days. Not this time! The weekend cooldown continues into next week. In fact…the South turns even cooler! 🥶 Looks like the chilliest morning will be Tuesday with widespread middle to lower 40s. Are you ready?!?!

‼️ 🚨 Pattern change incoming! 🚨 ‼️ The passing cold front Friday into Friday night won’t just provide a chill for the weekend, but will help keep the mornings chilly across the Eastern US next week, too. 🥶 This is an interesting setup. The upper-level energy (trough) that helps push the cold front through looks to split over the Atlantic Ocean early next week. Low pressure above should work down to the ocean’s surface. In a scenario like this, subtropical storm development is possible. 🌀 Given enough time in the same area, near the Gulf Stream, even tropical development can’t be ruled out. Regardless, Eastern US impacts will be the same. High pressure dominating with cool air oozing all the way into the Deep South from Canada. End result: chilly mornings all week and pleasant days!

A *significant* cold front is set to pass the South from Friday into Friday night. A big temperature drop follows that will send 40s into parts of Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia by Saturday morning. The core of the cold settles over the northeastern part of the country by Sunday morning with frost/freeze potential. 🥶 These fronts will come more regularly and gradually turn colder as the transition to winter continues.

As a lifelong Bears fan, this is pretty special!

Final Google DeepMind Ensemble run we’re going see before landfall of Hurricane Isaias Friday evening. I’ve been leaning on this model all week long and continue to at this hour. The centerpoint of the cone is focused on Destin for landfall as a category 2 hurricane. The official forecast from the NHC calls for a category 3 at landfall. ‼️ Make sure you are prepared! Widespread tree damage and power outages will impact the Florida Panhandle and a large swath of Alabama from Friday evening into Saturday morning.

Let’s discuss the tornado threat with Isaias. 🌪️ Every landfalling tropical cyclone is different. Time of day/night, time of year, location, etc. All these factors impact tornado potential. There is going to be limited instability overnight in the prime area where tornadoes typically occur. I’m eying the Big Bend area of Florida into South Georgia for the main risk area. Maybe you’re just learning about the AI tropical models this week, like the Google DeepMind Ensembles. They’re excelling at accuracy again. Do you know about the AI tornado prediction model from StormNet? It’s also been outperforming traditional forecasting methods and organizations. These maps show the evolution of the tornado risk overnight. I’ve seen a lot of hype about the tornado risk online…here’s some of the best information available. Florida Big Bend into South Georgia, stay alert. 👀 🌪️

Hurricane Isaias is a powerful Category 3 storm Friday morning and the center is within view of radar. This strength should hold into early afternoon, then gradual weakening should commence leading to landfall. Isaias is still projected to be a Category 2 at landfall. 🌀 💧 General rainfall amounts of 2-4”, with 4-7”+ in bands. 💨 Widespread 40-60 mph gusts Friday evening across South Alabama, but 60-80 mph inland near the center of circulation. Stronger in the Western Florida Panhandle. 🌪️ The dry slot will limit the overall tornado risk for Southeast Alabama. I highlighted the tornado risk areas on the future radar images. ⏰ Rainy and windy weather dominates Friday, with the worst weather in the 5 pm to midnight window as Isaias approaches the coast and makes landfall. Stay safe!

Making a run at major hurricane status. 🌀 Isaias will move over a pocket of higher ocean heat content water. I still think it helps provide the boost to get this hurricane to Category 3…and hopefully no higher. A weakening trend should begin later Friday afternoon ahead of the evening landfall due to cooler coastal waters and increased wind shear. Isaias will still be incredibly impactful across Florida and Alabama.

Isaias is a Category 1 hurricane as of 8:30 Thursday morning, still organizing in the Central Gulf. Further strengthening is likely as the system churns towards the Northern Gulf Coast for landfall later Friday evening. The general consensus is for a landfall spot near Pensacola, especially favored by the top-performing AI models, most likely as a Category 2. Isaias could reach major hurricane status farther out in the Gulf, but there should be some weakening as the center approaches land and then much faster weakening after landfall. Threats: 🌊 Storm surge along the coast 💨 Max winds along the coast, gusty inland 🌧️ Widespread 2-4”, but 4-7” along center track inland 🌪️ Possible tornado threat east of the center These future radar images are a decent representation of what’s expected. Use Thursday to prepare before rain overspreads the South starting Friday morning.

Huge nocturnal convection burst around the center of Isaias late Wednesday evening. Looks like the circulation becomes vertically stacked on Thursday, allowing for significant strengthening. I still think major hurricane status is more likely than not. Lots to watch between now and the late-Friday landfall. Finish most of your preps on Thursday if you can.

The best Global model in verification studies is usually the AI-ECMWF model. It’s been really consistent with Isaias the past few days. Aligns well with the NHC cone focused on the Pensacola area. Have a look… 🌀