
Chief economist at @InnovateEconomy. Host of the EconTwitter Water Cooler, live on twitter spaces and downloadable here: https://xitter.cf/t.co/toyjfDruRu
Lancaster, PA
Joined June 2010
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Adam Ozimek retweeted
🇺🇸 NEW: We have a plan to ensure America dominates the open-weight tier of Artificial Intelligence.
A trade: Labs that claim the safe harbor from antitrust would commit to releasing capable open-weight versions of their models on a predictable schedule, once those models pass independent risk evaluations.
@fuller_brandon @arpitrage @Sean_Speer ⬇️ manhattan.institute/article/…
Adam Ozimek retweeted
How do we best balance security needs for AI labs with broader economic goals of containing Chinese open source models and diffusing AI?
With @fuller_brandon and @Sean_Speer we argue for antitrust exemptions paired with forced open weight releases
manhattan.institute/article/…
Adam Ozimek retweeted
The New Right started because elites were asking the people to eat bugs and it will end the same way.
Adam Ozimek retweeted
A table (and paper) that has shaped many policy careers.
Replying to @johnvanreenen
@johnvanreenen's Economics of Ideas, Science, and Innovation lecture helps us think about how policy designs influence things we care about in science: research conducted, people trained, intellectual property protected (or shared with the public).
The "lightbulb" table from John's paper with @heidilwilliams_ & @I_Am_NickBloom provides a quick way to think about the quality of evidence for different innovation policies and their net benefit.
Find John's lecture here (with intro text from @matthewesche): macroscience.org/p/john-van-…
Adam Ozimek retweeted
My latest for @opinion debunks 3 myths about US manufacturing jobs: 1) they're all good paying; 2) they're all attainable by anyone with a HS degree; & 3) Americans are dying to work them.
These 3 fuel a lot of bad policy (eg tariffs); politicians should stop spreading them. /1
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl… (🎁 )
Adam Ozimek retweeted
I'm thrilled to be launching Econvitals today. It's been the main way in which I have been tracking and understanding the economy over the last several months. And I decided I might as well share it with all of you--for free.
Has a combo of website, email lists & social media.
Adam Ozimek retweeted
Even if employment returns to normal, workers who enter the labor market during an economic downturn can experience lower earnings for years afterward, with effects that may persist well into their careers.
w/ @BenGlasner
Adam Ozimek retweeted
How does the American workforce rate President Trump's performance on the economy as the midterms loom?
This week @wsj, EIG fellow @jordanmcgillis presents the findings of our collab with @EchelonInsights, the American Worker Survey.
Check it out here: wsj.com/opinion/trumps-tarif…
Adam Ozimek retweeted
Is it a "revolving door"-type conflict of interest that this campaign to block permitting reform in order to preserve more litigation opportunities is sponsored by a plaintiff's law firm that makes money by bringing these suits?
MARK IT DOWN: The New Mexico Democratic primary in 2028 will be won by an opponent of BAAJA. 106strong.com/
Adam Ozimek retweeted
My latest for @PostOpinions is a first look at the new & improved "Freedom in the 50 States" report from @CatoInstitute, discussing how common partisan breakdowns of economic & personal freedom in the US are mostly wrong:
wapo.st/4igStdq (🎁)
Adam Ozimek retweeted
Alice Evans has a severely under-read post on this topic. The main theme is that past a certain point a lot of gender equality progress happened via movements in civil society, which communism squashed. ggd.world/p/did-communism-sm…
In case you were wondering why CBS is letting Stephen Colbert go, he recalls "seeing Soviet posters basically saying 'in the west women are not allowed to do any of this.' There was a forward-looking feminist agenda to the communist enterprise." While Puck News's Julia Ioffe, promoting her new book, claims "I think a lot of people forget, including Russians, that Russia and the Soviet Union were the vanguard of world feminism. Russian women had the right to vote in 1917, largely irrelevant very quickly. In 1918 they got access to free higher education, paid maternity leave, child support, even from men who were not their legally married husbands, and they had to start paying when the woman was still pregnant. Let’s see, they got no fault civil divorce, they no longer needed their husband's permission for anything. In 1920, women got the right to abortion in the Soviet Union."
Adam Ozimek retweeted
This is amazing and shows what would have taken a vast manual effort in the past can be done as a hobby project very efficiently. Truly a new age of gaming and software ahead.
I ported @TimSweeneyEpic's 1991 shareware PC classic, ZZT, to the Nintendo Entertainment System using Claude Code. One of the most underrated games of the '90s
ASCII art on a NES is more fun than it sounds. It runs on a standard MMC3 cart, real hardware, new soundtrack!
Adam Ozimek retweeted
New tariff polling from @EchelonInsights continues to be brutal for Republicans. Look at the cross tabs, here:
- 68 percent of suburban households say reducing or eliminating tariffs would improve the cost of living a lot/some.
- 64 percent of parents.
echeloninsights.com/insights…
Adam Ozimek retweeted
Would be a good topic for a book
Palmer Luckey warns America cannot compete with China’s population advantage forever through innovation alone: “We need 1 BILLION Americans minimum. Probably more like 2 or 3 billion.” 🇺🇸🇨🇳
“Yes, we need to get our act together. We need to do better at manufacturing, at defense, all these things. But everything is just biting around the margins if we’re 350 million people and they’re 2 billion people who are roughly the same.
How exceptional do we have to be to achieve a 10-to-1 ratio forever, in perpetuity? It’s not practical. It’s not logical.
I would say it’s even possibly a racist thing to believe that we can be so much better than China and the Chinese people that we’ll just beat them with a tiny fraction of the population.
We need to do better with what we’ve got. But we also just need a lot more people. We need 1 billion Americans minimum, probably more like 2 or 3 billion, with better demographics and better natural resources.
The Dutch once had the most powerful navy in the world. They didn’t lose that position because they fell behind on factories or shipbuilding. They became economically irrelevant.”
Both countries are competing with respect to declining birth rates. Both nations must be more willing to have children and expand the population growth exponentially over the next decade. The current economic path is unsustainable if our labor force begins to shrink even with artificial intelligence on the rise.
Adam Ozimek retweeted
The OAI-HF incident, the Iranian critical infrastructure hacks, etc. (combined, of course, with our inherent vulnerability to pathogens and stuff like that) should be enough to widen the aperture of imagination on the very significant downside risks that are approaching.
But this idea @KelseyTuoc has of "a world where humans are without economic value" strikes me as a similar failure of imagination.
Even if a model can do large portions of the types of jobs Kelsey and I have better than we can, I reckon the extraordinary surplus that will correspond with those advances will mean a surge in demand for economic exchanges that only humans can fulfill.
People (myself included) will continue to want human beings to do certain things for them based on the very fact that they're human beings. I could come up with a hundred examples, but here are two that appeal to me personally:
1) Human tutors for my kids.
I don't want to turn my children over to machines, nor do most parents. AI will surely play a big part in developing lessons, but even if rapid technological progress sets in I expect to be very willing to pay a lot of money for a caring human guide. (And when we're surpassed as writers, it'll be people like Kelsey and me that are available to fill these roles.)
2) Live entertainment.
We like watching people do things well, be it on stage or on the field. We will continue doing so even when humanoids can play a concerto really well and shoot three-pointers.
As @ModeledBehavior puts it, don't underestimate the economics of the human touch.
Adam Ozimek retweeted
Replying to @ModeledBehavior
I wonder if Gibney produced a four hour documentary on Thomas Edison he would conclude that Edison was just a great hype man. Such goofiness.
Adam Ozimek retweeted
This piece is a good example of what goes wrong when you have some story but not economy theory to map that to the data.
For example, it asks “So how could bird-flu-driven scarcity explain a price increase of 138%?”
The answer is in the article: demand for eggs is inelastic.
When the cost of eggs spiked in 2022, economists said bird flu alone was to blame. Anyone who suspected corporate price-fixing was dismissed as a crank.
Inside the alleged egg cartel the experts said couldn’t exist.
politico.com/news/magazine/2…
Adam Ozimek retweeted
It's I guess not the end of the world, but our comfort with the idea of Hollywood "true stories" that aren't actually true should is kind of troubling and under-discussed.
slowboring.com/p/our-culture…
Adam Ozimek retweeted
On that note, I appreciated @ModeledBehavior’s recent piece in @thedispatch:
thedispatch.com/newsletter/d…








































