Who is holding the losses - who is going to come to DC hands out asking for a bailout - CRE, PE, and private credit. They will claim their demise hurts individual through pension funds. I say, bail out individuals not institutions.
Most hold on until they reach their pain point - then go beserk. They are conditioned to buy the dip and when the dip dips more, it’s Katie bar the door.
Why do investors panic-sell?
Back in 1979, Psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky discovered that losing $1,000 generally hurts more than gaining $1,000 feels good.
It's called loss aversion.
And it helps explain why investors get cold feet when markets tumble.
An MIT study tracking nearly 300,000 households found that panic selling becomes disproportionately common during sharp market declines.
When your portfolio is bleeding money, your brain desperately wants to stop the pain. Hitting the sell button offers instant relief and a sense of control.
That's why keeping a cool head is one of the hardest parts of investing.
Something to keep in mind during selloffs like last week’s.
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Boy the inflation numbers upset the bond traders but the equity guys don’t know what to make of it. Another rate hike? Has to be bad for next years earnings as cos don’t have the pricing power to pass through higher rates. Bad for PE and private loans and CRE ( cry me a river)
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Nancy C retweeted
The trouble with arguing with anti-capitalists is that they just don't want to read anything that doesn't reinforce their worldview. The alleged problem of "monopolies are inevitable under capitalism" has been dealt with extensively by any number of economists.
But even if you don't want to read, you can just look at the world around you and see if your theories match reality. Do we see monopolies in any of the following: smartphones, laptops, cameras, food products, streaming services, video sites, social media sites, vehicles, etc.? An actual monopoly would mean that once a company got big enough, nothing could dethrone it. You'd see dynasties. The top billionaires of today would have names like Rockefeller, Rothschild, Vanderbilt, etc. IBM would have a stranglehold on computers.
It is so easy to test claims against reality. But most people don't do it because they don't want to hear or see anything that would force them to admit they are wrong.
Countries and states that try to “compete” using taxes lose out for if they a fellow states colluded to keep tax rates up, most would have higher tax revenues. They are just paying extortion as lower taxes are not key to location decision
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The flaw I was talking about is the tendency towards monopoly. Capitalism requires competition- good capitalist do everything to prevent competition, size, collusion, side agreements, resource capture, regulatory capture, and on and on
The meaning of capitalism gets distorted by everyone. The actual definition remains, nonetheless. You say "Capitalism has severe defects that need to be addressed." The truth is that the implementation of capitalism in modern capitalist countries is deeply flawed and contaminated with socialism. The fix is to move towards pure capitalism, but everyone thinks the fix is more socialism. This is like thinking that you can cure diabetes with lots more sugar in the diet.
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2) market value crucifies many businesses. Plus the wide over performance of the last 15 years is going to be matched by many years of underperformance. Think of the huge supply that the baby boomers will sell to support themselves. Expected inheritances will disappear.
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That’s the problem, a whole generation of investors know nothing than a quick rebound from any fall. That is not the true history of the market. Even Nasdaq took 17 years to recover and that was with mostly new companies in new business areas. A significant destruction of 2)
Thursday’s 4%+ drop in the S&P 500 stung. But we’ve seen far worse, and the market has recovered every time. In fact, Thursday’s selloff doesn’t crack the top 11 worst market days since 1987!
On Black Monday in 1987, the S&P 500 lost 20.5% in a single day. The COVID crash had three separate drops of more than 7%, with the S&P down 12% in March of 2020 alone.
The Global Financial Crisis delivered four separate 7%+ crashes.
And yet, a year after those 11 crashes, the market was higher 10 times, with an average gain of 30.5%. Even the lone miss, September 29, 2008, was back in the green three years later.
Investors who stayed put for five years earned an average of 13.1% a year.
Ask yourself: If you had followed the headlines and Wall Street and sold during any of those crashes… when would you have felt “safe enough” to buy back in? After the market comes roaring back?
^ Taken from our update to premium Disruption Investor members. Thought it was good data worth sharing. Remember, time in the m
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It works, doesn’t it until it doesn’t. This could be solved by legislation. Let’s see who Warren goes after. I’ve read PE is high on her list- of course she hates the banks too
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💯percent agree
Good morning. The air is refreshing and my dog is a good boy.
Six months ago, a Blue Tsunami was but a dream. Three months ago, it was amorphous and unlikely, but possible. Six weeks ago, it took shape. And now, even after it happened, as adrenaline leaves our collective bloodstreams, we realize - now the real work begins.
I wanted to post this morning about what I want to see happen. It's not about prices or wars or accountability, all of which are essential. But what I want most, is more basic: I want Americans to learn from this. I want more truth to enter our discourse.
Because - if there's more truth and less motivated discord, then we can all see the biggest truth of all - that we're not that different from one another and we want much of the same things.
What I want - in order for more truth to enter our discourse so that we can better come together - is to undo the lies.
Let's start with the more ludicrous ones - those should be easier for everyone to process:
- There is no such thing as a post-birth abortion.
- Nobody in Springfield was eating cats and dogs.
Let's move to the next level:
- No kids go to school one day as one sex and come home as another - no school performs surgery, and no political faction supports this in any way.
- No drug prices can be reduced by 600% - math is immutable, it doesn't help to be mathematical morons.
- Vaccines have eliminated many diseases. They work. Science is mostly immutable, it doesn't help to be scientifically stupid, and the measles are unnecessary.
Let's get to the big ones:
- Tariffs ARE taxes - they are NOT paid by the country we levy, FFS; they are paid by our importers and passed along to wholesalers, retailers, and to us.
- The SAVE Act was NOT Voter ID - it was an attempt to steal the voter rolls, to federalize elections, and to create massive confusion that suppressed the vote. If you see RW influencers lamenting that we didn't pass that legislation, stop following them - they're false.
And THE biggie:
- The 2020 election was NOT rigged. Trump LOST. He LOST. Again, he LOST. AGAIN - HE LOST!! Every lawsuit - over 60 - showed this. AND - if any public official even dances around saying this ever again, don't confirm them and/or remove them from office.
THAT is MY greatest wish - that the LIES that underpinned Trump's myths get shredded and undone. Like the GOP got shredded and undone.
IF this can happen, we can better speak with one another.
And if you think this cannot happen, that too many profit from these lies, I hear you. But just remember - six months ago, a Blue Tsunami was only a dream.
Have a nice day!
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Nancy C retweeted
Good morning. The air is refreshing and my dog is a good boy.
Six months ago, a Blue Tsunami was but a dream. Three months ago, it was amorphous and unlikely, but possible. Six weeks ago, it took shape. And now, even after it happened, as adrenaline leaves our collective bloodstreams, we realize - now the real work begins.
I wanted to post this morning about what I want to see happen. It's not about prices or wars or accountability, all of which are essential. But what I want most, is more basic: I want Americans to learn from this. I want more truth to enter our discourse.
Because - if there's more truth and less motivated discord, then we can all see the biggest truth of all - that we're not that different from one another and we want much of the same things.
What I want - in order for more truth to enter our discourse so that we can better come together - is to undo the lies.
Let's start with the more ludicrous ones - those should be easier for everyone to process:
- There is no such thing as a post-birth abortion.
- Nobody in Springfield was eating cats and dogs.
Let's move to the next level:
- No kids go to school one day as one sex and come home as another - no school performs surgery, and no political faction supports this in any way.
- No drug prices can be reduced by 600% - math is immutable, it doesn't help to be mathematical morons.
- Vaccines have eliminated many diseases. They work. Science is mostly immutable, it doesn't help to be scientifically stupid, and the measles are unnecessary.
Let's get to the big ones:
- Tariffs ARE taxes - they are NOT paid by the country we levy, FFS; they are paid by our importers and passed along to wholesalers, retailers, and to us.
- The SAVE Act was NOT Voter ID - it was an attempt to steal the voter rolls, to federalize elections, and to create massive confusion that suppressed the vote. If you see RW influencers lamenting that we didn't pass that legislation, stop following them - they're false.
And THE biggie:
- The 2020 election was NOT rigged. Trump LOST. He LOST. Again, he LOST. AGAIN - HE LOST!! Every lawsuit - over 60 - showed this. AND - if any public official even dances around saying this ever again, don't confirm them and/or remove them from office.
THAT is MY greatest wish - that the LIES that underpinned Trump's myths get shredded and undone. Like the GOP got shredded and undone.
IF this can happen, we can better speak with one another.
And if you think this cannot happen, that too many profit from these lies, I hear you. But just remember - six months ago, a Blue Tsunami was only a dream.
Have a nice day!
Dems need two tracks - investigations of corruptions and major legislation of the basic aspects of American life that are harming so many
I wanted to post about several things intertwined with the recent election. The first - #1- is a chastisement of sorts. The second is a reminder. The third is something pleasant to leave you with. Here goes:
1. Don't be hard on yourselves. You worked hard. You were dedicated. Your work and you dedication helped fuel a massive success. Massive. Do NOT stop celebrating it, not for at least another week. The behaviorist in me, who always talks about MAGA being addicted to dopamine, wants to caution YOU not to be an enzymatic prisoner of -- adrenaline. Adrenaline does shit like this - it spikes and you're wired, it subsides and you're subdued. Don't let your body fool you into believing you're sad or that anxiety is back. It's not. We won. BIG. Cut yourself some slack. You're just feeling a natural byproduct of less adrenaline in your blood.
2. Recognize what happened. It wasn't a Blue Wave and wasn't a Blue Tsunami. It was a Blue megatsunami. It was one or two steps from an extinction level event for the GOP. When the smoke clears, we'll have 255+ seats in the House and will have flipped 9 seats in the Senate - but that's only half the story. We took State Houses! We took Gubernatorial races - BIGTIME. We crushed supermajorities. We vanquished villains. We won down ballot races. Rachel did a segment on this and it was incredible. And the best part is - the margins moved EVERYWHERE. And BECAUSE the margins moved everywhere - it was thus a NATIONAL megatsunami, and the only figure that is national, is Trump. So - it's ALL on him. All of it. And the GOP knows this no matter what they spew. And the RW influencers know it too.
3. Predicaments. For those still inclined to fret about Iran or Israel or the lame duck session or anything else, spend a little time thinking about TWO predicaments. First - the GOP. WTF do they do? They can't reinvent while Trump is in office, and they can't sidle to Trump, and they can't even stem the bleeding as they're still in shock. Somebody has to run for President from the GOP in 2028. Is a fracture coming? Who is hiring lawyers? WTF do they do? I said there were TWO predicaments - the other is .... FOX NEWS! They're viewership is way down. They looked shell-shocked, angry, depressed, and stupid on Tuesday. Hannity was especially off. They made themselves in the image of MAGA. WTF do they do?
These are rhetorical questions for now. but they sure are fun to think about. And it sure is nice to see the other side face the bigger predicaments.
Enjoy this moment and the next and the next after that.
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Possible not probable, esp a big bank getting in trouble. The Anthropic IPO is in trouble which casts a pall over all AI. 25th amendment - who knows- Trump should effectively take a vacation at Mar a Lago until 28. After all his campaigning he must be exhausted and bitter.
couple possible events:
1) 25th amendment
2) war - methinks Trump pivots on Putin enters Ukraine
3) ANT pulls IPO, OpenAI goes down
4) Major bank does SVB * 10
5) UNP NSC is pulled
we have set stage for an event such likely is created
SP500 will see 3000 handle
long calls TLT
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You are too cute for words!
Happy National Donut Day 🍩 What is your favorite donut? #NationalDonutDay #donut #cutedog #dogs #dogsofX #dogsoftwitter #dogsontwitter
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Housing is a longer term workout - just starting more new units will help. Certain markets have already turned, more to follow.
“Affordability” seems to be the mandate for the new Democrat majority. So they need to either find a “magic wand” to bring prices down quickly, or they need to….give money to people (so the high prices are made “affordable”) yet again. Only causing more inflation.
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