Yesterday's NC voters by propensity 🔵 DEM | 🔴 REP 4/4: 54.6% | 64.8% 3/4: 17.4% | 16.3% 2/4: 11.7% | 8.3% 1/4: 9.9% | 6.6% 0/4: 6.3% | 3.9% Yesterday was the worst day yet for the GOP on just pure 4/4 gap as it hit double digits for the first time. Republicans could certainly win some individual days this week, but the concern for the GOP is that yesterday's topline "improvement" came almost entirely from higher-propensity Republicans turning out, rather than any meaningful increase in low-propensity participation. If that's what it takes to narrow the gap, I worry about what the underlying turnout numbers will look like even on upcoming days when Republicans will actually lead or at least get close to it. North Carolina continues to look increasingly like a reversal of Florida in 2022, when Republicans benefited from an overwhelmingly favorable turnout environment. The key difference is that Democrats in Florida were largely protected by districts drawn to concentrate Democratic voters, so their statewide collapse translated into relatively few additional House losses. In North Carolina, it's Republicans who are defending an aggressive gerrymander in what could become a similarly unfavorable turnout environment. Republicans now have roughly four days of early voting, plus Election Day, to turn things around and bring more low-propensity voters into the electorate. So far, there's no evidence of that beginning to happen. Republicans essentially have to hope that a substantial number of low- and medium-propensity voters, despite showing limited enthusiasm so far, turn out at the last minute. But in a state like North Carolina, where most ballots are cast early, there's only so much ground that can realistically be made up late. I still expect some regression toward the mean, and I continue to view Republicans as favored in all nine of their favored congressional seats. But if these turnout dynamics persist through Election Day, I could see NC-03 and NC-13 moving into toss-up territory, which is something I didn't see coming just a few weeks ago.

Yesterday was another stronger-than-expected day for Democrats in Florida's in-person early vote. The electorate will continue to get more Republican as the GOP did backload its turnout (moving from R+6.9 to R+7.6 yesterday), but the question is just how much further right it gets. At this point, I think we're probably looking at a high-single-digit final Republican electorate by total party registration (after considering mail, IPEV, and Election Day votes). Nothing insane like what we're seeing in North Carolina for Democrats, but still a meaningful improvement relative to 2024. That would keep Jolly within striking distance; he has a tough path, but certainly a plausible one. It would require a really strong performance with independents and other swing voters although he'd be helped by the national environment.

Amid strong Democratic early voting in North Carolina, Democrats are pulling money out of left-trending, Trump+9 NC-11 out of confidence in their chances. Meanwhile, Republicans have increased spending in Trump+16 NC-09. Battleground in the state has shifted a lot.