Dad of 2 boys, Next Level Grain Marketing Pty Ltd. Geelong Cats fan, Love getting my hands dirty. My views are my own!
Pt Lincoln, SA.
Joined April 2013
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Next Level Grain retweeted
🇨🇳 #China’s #oilseed buyers have purchased ~1 MMT of #Australian #canola in recent deals for arrival in early 2027, bought at ~$695 - $705/MT C&F, as improved #Beijing-#Canberra ties, lower tariffs and stronger
linkedin.com/posts/grainin_c…
Next Level Grain retweeted
Ukraine is ready to accept a peace deal in whick Kiev retains 75% of the Ukraine's territory, Zelenskiy told Fox News.
Next Level Grain retweeted
Tend to agree.
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"The Americans’ “new proposals” offer little reason for optimism and have failed to generate much enthusiasm in Moscow. Nevertheless, shifts on economic issues, the prospect of partial sanctions relief and the desire to keep Trump satisfied have given Putin sufficient grounds to agree to resume negotiations, particularly as doing so comes at little cost to Moscow.
All the latest statements and signals suggest that Moscow does not currently see an acceptable, or even remotely satisfactory, offer on the table. Yet it is prepared to engage in discussions for tactical gains".
#oatt #wheat #blacksea
Putin agreed to resume trilateral talks on a settlement in Ukraine. This is so far the main outcome of Steve Witkoff’s trip to St. Petersburg. The last meeting between Russian, Ukrainian and American representatives took place in February, and even then, Moscow viewed the process less as a genuine attempt to resolve the conflict than as a tactical exercise, albeit one accompanied by substantive technical discussions on the modalities of a ceasefire.
The talks were supposed to resume following Witkoff and Kushner’s visits to Moscow and Kyiv in September. However, Zelensky’s decision to focus on pressuring Moscow into concessions, which led to intensified strikes during the voting days, instead convinced Putin that Russia should harden its position. Moscow signalled that it now wanted not only the entirety of Donbas and the other annexed territories, but was also prepared to fight to establish a buffer zone beyond them. This was not a new position, but Russian officials have long adjusted how firmly they articulate their demands depending on the circumstances. The resumption of talks thus became another card to play.
Judging by Ushakov’s rhetoric, the Americans’ “new proposals” offer little reason for optimism and have failed to generate much enthusiasm in Moscow. Nevertheless, shifts on economic issues, the prospect of partial sanctions relief and the desire to keep Trump satisfied have given Putin sufficient grounds to agree to resume negotiations, particularly as doing so comes at little cost to Moscow.
All the latest statements and signals suggest that Moscow does not currently see an acceptable, or even remotely satisfactory, offer on the table. Yet it is prepared to engage in discussions for tactical gains, calculating that these, combined with the further deterioration of the Ukrainian state, may eventually produce a strategic shift in Russia’s favour.
Next Level Grain retweeted
🇨🇳 #China private crushers buy #Australian canola, first deals since 2020. A private #Chinese crusher bought 68KMT $730/MT C&F of new-crop Australian #canola for March shipment after a similar #cargo purchased by another private processor linkedin.com/posts/grainin_c…
Next Level Grain retweeted
Chicago Wheat Hits Three-Year High as Black Sea Supply Shock Deepens
Chicago #wheat jumped the maximum permitted 45 cents today, hitting the daily limit.
Prices are now at their highest level in three years. Since June, they have gained around 30%.
Active buying began during the overnight session — I think traders in Asia and Australia were among the main buyers. By the end of the session, the rally had reached the maximum allowed.
The main driver — something we have been writing about for weeks — is an unprecedented wheat supply shock caused by the shutdown of Russian and Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov.
Nothing comparable has happened in the history of the modern grain market: neither in 2010, when Russia imposed its grain export ban, nor in the first half of 2022, after the war began. Until recently, the market had been catastrophically underpricing this story.
Another possible factor was the unexpected visit of the CIA director to Moscow. He may have brought some kind of proposal for the Kremlin — or an ultimatum. There is still no reliable information. But the visit does not appear to have produced anything positive. The chances of de-escalation remain low, and another round of escalation cannot be ruled out.
European wheat prices, meanwhile, are approaching $300 per metric ton. Wheat importers, who until recently believed that everything would somehow resolve itself, are beginning to get nervous.
Substantially higher global grain prices are probably ahead. Farmers in Russia and Ukraine, however, will see little benefit: local prices are falling rapidly amid the harvest, strong crops and minimal exports.
#oatt #sizovreport
Next Level Grain retweeted
#Russia on Friday dismissed the idea of a ceasefire with #Ukraine in the #BlackSea, saying it saw no grounds for "half-measures" that would offer a respite to the other side. Attacks by both countries in recent week are driving grain prices higher.
reuters.com/world/europe/rus…
Next Level Grain retweeted
#Wheat down 20+ cents intraday on this headline today: "Ukraine proposed a mutual halt on attacks against commercial ships in the Black Sea, transmitted via Türkiye."
The problem is this "scoop" is five days old.
Fidan (Turkish FM), LAST SATURDAY: "The Ukrainian side already had a proposal [for a moratorium on Black Sea attacks]. We have conveyed it to our Russian colleagues and are awaiting a response."
Same information. Almost word for word.
Since Saturday: more attacks from both sides — vessels, Novorossiysk, Danube terminals. All three Novorossiysk terminals shut.
We track this daily for clients: sizov.report/?utm_source=twi…
#Russia #Ukraine #blacksea #oatt #sizovreport
Next Level Grain retweeted
Los precios del trigo subieron después de que Rusia suspendiera la navegación por el estrecho de Kerch —conecta el Mar de Azov con el Mar Negro— en medio de ataques a buques en la zona. Por los puertos de Azov sale una cuarta parte de las expo rusas de trigo y aceite de girasol.
#Wheat spiked 3-5% Friday after Russia suspended navigation through the Kerch Strait - the narrow passage between linking the Sea of Azov to the Black Sea - amid escalating attacks on vessels in the region.
Azov ports handle about a quarter of Russia's #wheat and sunflower oil exports. Volga terminals shipping via the Volga-Don canal route through Azov are exposed too.
Days, or weeks? That's the difference between a blip and a real hit to the 2026/27 export season.Our take: sizov.report/reports/30400/?…
#blacksea #oatt #sizovreport
September CBOT wheat:
Next Level Grain retweeted
Canada Just Admitted Justin Trudeau's Climate Agenda Was A Scam zerohedge.com/energy/canada-…
Next Level Grain retweeted
🇮🇳India’s #kharif acreage down 23%, as deficient monsoon begins to impact #sowing. Area under all #crops reported at 182.72 lakh hectares against 236.46 lakh hectares a year ago. #India recorded 99.5 mm of #rainfall in June compared to the long-term average of 165.3 mm, making June
linkedin.com/posts/kharif-so…
Next Level Grain retweeted
US winter #wheat ratings dropped again, down 4 p.p. to 30%.
And this may not be the full story.
I’m quite confident the weekend freeze damage has not been reflected here fully yet. You need at least several days to assess it properly.
That suggests ratings could fall further within a week or two, potentially below the record-low seen in 2023.
#oatt #sizovreport #agwx
Next Level Grain retweeted
That really looks like a curse.
See that brown “below normal precipitation” area? It overlaps with roughly 80% of U.S. winter #wheat production.
Not the kind of map wheat farmers want to see with extreme drought already in place.
#oatt #sizovreport #agwx
Next Level Grain retweeted
USDA's winter #wheat condition scores...HRW percent rated VP/P remains a concern and continues to support the KW/W intermarket spread, July'26 pushed back over 30 before finding resistance. 32% VP/P in Kansas, 48% Oklahoma, 47% Nebraska, 44% in Colorado.
Next Level Grain retweeted
JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 US Vince President JD Vance says Iran "has chosen not to accept our terms."
Next Level Grain retweeted
We've reached the point that they're using the Epstein files to cover up Iran
Melania Trump says she was never a friend or victim of Jeffrey Epstein in video statement at White House bbc.in/4czQQFR
Next Level Grain retweeted
This is not a market anomaly. This is a crime scene.
Let’s be precise about what we’re looking at. The 14-minute gap between those trades and Trump’s Truth Social post is not a coincidence any serious analyst can dismiss. $580 million in oil futures and $1.5 billion in S&P 500 notional value, executed in a single 60-second window, followed 14 minutes later by a presidential statement that moved global markets by trillions. Someone knew. The question is not whether this was insider trading. The question is who the source was and how far up the chain it goes.
The scale rules out a lucky retail trader. 6,200 Brent and WTI contracts in 60 seconds, coordinated simultaneously with an equivalent S&P 500 position, requires institutional-grade execution, pre-positioned capital, and foreknowledge of a market-moving event. You don’t accidentally stumble into that trade. You build it deliberately because you know what’s coming.
The $100 million profit in 20 minutes is the visible tip. The reputational and legal exposure beneath it is existential for whoever is behind this, because if this traces back to anyone with proximity to the White House, the NSC, or the negotiating back-channel, you are no longer looking at securities fraud. You are looking at potential violations of the Trading with the Enemy Act, national security law, and criminal statutes that carry sentences measured in decades, not years.
The FT publishing this changes the calculus. The SEC and CFTC now have no political cover to sit on it. If they don’t investigate, that itself becomes the story.
The bond market is already at 4.44% and climbing toward the threshold that ended Trump’s tariff war. Add a market manipulation scandal layered on top of an active war, and you have the kind of cascading institutional crisis that no press conference can contain.
Whoever made those trades believed the peace announcement was coming with enough certainty to deploy nearly $2 billion in coordinated positions. That is not a bet. That is a collection.
Next Level Grain retweeted
HRW wheat just may be toast with 80° and 90° days and zero rain chances in the 10 day. Fun, just fun.
Next Level Grain retweeted
🇨🇳🇨🇦 #China and #Canada have reached agreements to resolve trade issues related to #EV, #steel and #aluminum products, Canadian #canola, #agricultural products, and #aquatic products
linkedin.com/posts/rusgrain_…
