Analysis on Pelicans and Saints (and a hint of Alabama) mostly from a stats/math/analytics background
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Here are the top 25 teams by power rating based on Vegas Point spreads heading into the season:
For teams in the AP Poll not power rated in top 25:
Illinois ranked 12, Power Rated 31
Indiana ranked 20, PR 30
Iowa St ranked 22, PR 28
Boise St ranked 25, PR 39
This was easy to see coming. Alabama and Texas aren’t necessarily deserving of their current rankings, but because they have to do these rankings every week, they need to give themselves room to drop Bama, Texas, Ole Miss, etc while keeping them alive.
This is the first reveal I can remember that really closely follows a true analytical strength of record ranking. The SEC appears to have at least temporarily gotten its way there.
My best guess at tonight based on metrics + how committee typically handles these early rankings: by not really ranking so much as giving themselves outs for later.
Because of that, I bet they are high on the 2-loss SEC group and low on the 1-loss weaker resume group.
For example, if you rank Notre Dame above Bama/LSU this week, you're forced to rank a winning Notre Dame above the winner of Bama/LSU, and you're forced to rank a losing Notre Dame above the loser of Bama/LSU. If vice versa, you have all options available since ND plays #1.
Since 2015 when the extra point was moved back, there have been 46 instances of a team down 14 in the 4th quarter scoring the 2 required touchdowns with a chance to tie/take the lead.
Teams that kicked XPs first are 13-24-2
Teams that went for 2 first are 4-3
I've said this in the past, but I think THIS is where the Pelicans/Saints being in small markets have really hurt them. If this were happening in New York, the entire national media would be all over this. But most are happy to ignore how bad things are going in New Orleans.
Being in a big market wouldn’t magically turn Gayle into a good owner, but basically the only thing that has gotten the bare minimum out of her is being publicly embarrassed, and that would happen approximately 1,000x more in a big market than here.
A very rough quick study on this: looking at all games over last 15 seasons where game was always within 8 points, removing final 2 minutes of 2nd quarter and final 5 minutes of 4th: Dropback % vs EPA/Dropback
Again, the point is that one of these people got lambasted by every local and national outlet for being terrible (but it didn't matter because he didn't care) while the other is ignored by the national media and gets puff pieces by local media (while caring what people think).
Yes, and he was arguably the most criticized owner in America while Gayle Benson has an absolutely pristine reputation with the local media despite being probably a worse owner.
And unlike Dolan who did not really care, Benson does clearly care about her image/reputation.
I actually disagree with this. Between TV deals, luxury tax payouts, third party tickets, and ever-rising franchise values, they are able to operate like this and continuously turn money.
It would need to be stuff that actually embarrasses them: boos/chants/etc aimed at them
Benson’s group has been so insulated from criticism, particularly in the media, that I truly wonder what the fallout would be from something as minor as 25-30 people doing a Mavs Luka style protest or a small “Sell The Team” chant at a Tuesday night Pels game.
The Nets have undoubtedly been a better team than the Pelicans over the last decade+ and are still in a significantly better spot currently with a far brighter future.
The only thing that's kept the Saints above the Jets is that they had Sean Payton/Drew Brees 6-10 years ago.
