Notes on the markets.
Joined February 2023
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Notepad Finance retweeted
The big news last week was of course the sharp drawdown in high yield data center bonds and what that might mean for the broader AI buildout. I have been eyeing the price analog between the AI boom today and the internet boom-turned-bust in 1998-2000 and have been comforted by the fact that earnings are so strong today that equity valuations are falling instead of rising. We can see that below. 🧵(1/3)
Notepad Finance retweeted
now we know how much rev Anthropic gets from customers distilling its models: >$840m in Q3.
given its overall Q3 performance, some investors think $1.5t is more appropriate mkt cap vs $2t that its bankers have wanted...
Notepad Finance retweeted
The Van Eck Rare Earth and Critical Minerals ETF (white) has detached from rare earth prices (blue).
i.e. Share prices are falling, but earnings (all other things being equal) are stable.
Notepad Finance retweeted
A declining role of goods production in the U.S. economy has long been a topic of intense policy and research focus. But goods production remains more important than narrow measures might suggest. (1/2) federalreserve.gov/econres/n…
ALT Figure 1. Measures showing declining importance of goods production
Notepad Finance retweeted
If you ban diesel exports, this is what happens:
1) Without the overseas market, diesel inventories start to accumulate domestically. This temporarily puts downward pressure on wholesale prices in the US, likely more so in the Gulf Coast than anywhere else. HOWEVER
Notepad Finance retweeted
We are not bearish on AI, but this is interesting data from RAMP on the large AI spend from VC-backed companies. Another form of circular spending and has echoes to Buffett's CORT investment in the dot com era, where CORT's furniture rental business was indirectly very exposed to the same dot com companies Buffett was avoiding.
Notepad Finance retweeted
4 anos atrás eu saí da política
Me desiludi com o ambiente em que a lacração é mais importante que a construção, em que a gritaria sufoca o diálogo e no qual o eleitor prefere a doce ilusão do que a dura realidade.
Foram 4 anos sem comentar sobre o assunto, mas os últimos acontecimentos, nas eleições, na justiça e principalmente no STF me OBRIGAM a voltar ao tema.
Esse relato aqui não é a análise de um cientista político, ele é o desabafo de um cidadão que enxerga seu país chegar no fundo do poço.
Notepad Finance retweeted
13 ex ministros do STF escrevem carta cobrando Fachin que leve a plenário, com extrema urgência, as gravíssimas revelações que comprometeram o prestígio e a autoridade do STF.
Todos contra moraes, pq grave é o ato cometido e nao a revelação do ato cometido.
130 milhoes em contrato, aviao, helicóptero, cartão de crédito para filhos e conversas com o diretor da PF e com o PGR para conseguir bloquear uma operacao, além do vazamento da propria operacao com consultoria de fuga.
So no Brasil o Alexandre permanece como ministro... em qualquer lugar do mundo ele mesmo, por vergonha e preservação da instituição, teria pedido para sair.
Mas aqui eles dão risada da situação.
A piada somos nós.
Notepad Finance retweeted
My experience of life so far:
You enter a tunnel at ~15 & it shoots you out at ~35 & the rest of your life is largely determined by the choices you made & the luck you had in the tunnel.
Notepad Finance retweeted
$VMM #Viridis My hot take on the DFS today and more specifically the big seller early - which caused a quick 10% dump. 1.4m shares on offer at $4.
IMHO this was offshore flow that was all pre-organised. Most likely the strategic that is taking up fresh tranches lower at $3.38.
Why?
Because the order was placed at 9.51.32am as soon as the stock was reinstated.
There is no way you can read a 90page DFS nor the terms of the strategic funding within 1min of the release.
The seller was obviously wall crossed. Or they were trading based off not reading any information (usually not wise).
JPM no 2 on flows today. They handle offshore. Same broker that has been number 1 on the move into the news.
So someone just needed to make some room.
Personally I thought there were so many positives. As did the market lifting $4 and taking stock higher through the day.
Equity raise is done.
This will trigger the debt component.
This will trigger Solvay binding. They are the biggest live separation plant in Europe. LYC recruited this talent.
New Strategic investor today (OneIM) is linked all the way down the chain to magnet making via Noveon and Vulcan. So there is now an upstream to downstream play unfolding here.
The Brazilian backers are obviously behind this. Will help with final installation license and local support.
And then you have the payabilities and recoveries. Will not go there.
Cap $550m
2 cents from a jobber.
Play on
Notepad Finance retweeted
I finally have all 1.2 million raw image files from my latest mission to ISS! Here is a sample of one of my favorite Milky Way photos, taken from the Cupola with Nikon Z9, Arri Zeiss 15mm lens, T1.8 with custom sidereal drive that cancelled out star motion relative to our orbit.
