Options Johnny

$VRT: Measured move made

$YPF: Measured move made

$RKLB: Still dancing on the downside price target.

$NBIS: It took 4 months from the confirmed candle close below the neckline in July to finally make it to the measured move below in November.

$NOW: Tried to recover with a scallop break out and the rally failed.

$AMGN just completed a move to the upside

$NVDA: Price is now below the neckline after hours.

$SPY gaps up and hits the 20d EMA brick wall. If the big boys are gonna short, then this is likely where it happens.

"Under promise and over deliver" No. On Wall Street, it's "over guide, walk down, then beat!" Historically, the average walk down of earnings guidance is 4%. In other words, the final earnings guidance estimates going into the beginning of earnings season are about 4% lower than when the estimates first came out months earlier. Throughout the quarter, analysts and companies walk down those original guidance estimates so that when the actual earnings are released, the estimates are beat! Ironically, the the average quarterly beat is 7%. So, if you compare the actual earnings to the very first guidance numbers, (before all the walk downs), the average quarterly beat would be ..... 3%. Right now during Q3 earnings season, the average beat is 2.7%. If we look at the revisions, this quarter is unusual in the sense that instead of a walk down, we experienced a walk up of 1.4%, meaning that the bar was raised throughout the quarter instead being walked back. So, the true Q3 2026 earnings beat this quarter is 2.7% +1.4% = 4.1%. So why is the market pulling back? Because the market likes to be lied to. Even though the actual beat is 4.1% vs 3%, the nominal beat is only 2.7% vs. 7%.

Have you heard that we are in a "negative equity risk premium" environment? What does that mean? When you invest in equities, you should demand a premium over the yield you would otherwise earn with a risk-free investment, (e.g., the 10-year Treasury note). If the 10-year Treasury note is at 5%, (the current rate), that means the money you could make risk-free is 5%. You could park your money right there and not worry about losing your basis, and you will collect 5% annual interest payments for 10 years. (The only risk you take in this investment is called duration risk; the only way to guarantee you receive your exact original basis is by holding it for all 10 years, which is a worst-case scenario.) If you want to make more than a 5% yield, you would naturally look for an investment in equities. The question you need to ask yourself is: "How much of a premium over 5% do I expect in exchange for taking the risk of putting my money in equities and risking losing my basis if the market pulls back?" The answer to that question is different for everyone. Maybe you want to make 1% more, maybe 20% more. Whatever the number, you want to make something north of 5%. So, what sort of yield can you expect from the S&P 500 earnings right now? Something north of 5%? No. The S&P 500 earnings yield is only 3.9%. Put these two numbers together and you can see that the 10 year Treasury yield of 5% is greater than the S&P 500 earnings yield of 3.9%. The additional premium you get from investing in equities vs. bonds is negative (3.9% − 5.0% = −1.1%). In the chart below, I’ve graphed the opposite of the risk premium by subtracting the S&P 500 earnings yield from the 10 year Treasury yield. This shows me when bond yields are superior to equities. This is only the fourth era in the last 100 years where bonds are not only yielding a safer return than equities; they’re also yielding a better return. Right now the 10 year note is yielding more than 1% over the equity earnings yield. This doesn’t mean I’m suggesting you throw all your money at bonds. What this means is that as we’ve now entered a new regime where the spread is greater than 1%, you would do well to do some research on bonds to understand how they work, entries/exits, the different attributes, maturities, and duration risk. $SPY $SPX $TNX $TLT

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$HIMS: Descending Triangle break down and measured move price target attainment.