Dileep

Happy Diwali to you and your family 🪔 This year tested all of us: red days, hard trades, late nights at the charts. If you’re still here and still learning, that’s your biggest win. Thank you for growing with me. This page is a family because of you. Tonight, keep the screens off and sit with the people who stood by you. May your home be full of light, your heart full of peace, and your year full of green candles. ✨

Muhurat trading: Many traders think buying in this session brings luck for the year. Here’s what 20 years of Nifty data (2006–2025) actually shows. Win rate 15 out of 20 sessions closed green. The Diwali mood is usually positive. Current streak 8 green sessions in a row, from 2018 to 2025. Typical move Only about +0.2% to +0.3%. Apart from one year, Nifty never moved more than 1% either way. Muhurat sessions are calm, not explosive. Biggest gain 2008: +6.35%. It came right after the global crash, when markets were bouncing from deep lows. It’s an exception, not the pattern. Worst session 2017: −0.63%. Even the bad days stayed small. Latest session 2025: just +0.10%, the weakest gain in 8 years. The streak is still alive, but the momentum was thin. Does it predict the year? No. In 2022 Nifty gained 0.87% on Muhurat day, its best session in a decade, and then finished the next Samvat year around −1%. Bottom line Muhurat trading is a tradition, not a trading signal. Your process decides your year, not one festive hour. Happy Diwali 🪔Your bet for Todays MUHURAT TRADING?👇

I don't think big players care about every headline or event the way retail traders do. What matters is how directly that event impacts markets. A direct cause-and-effect relationship matters more: A leads to B. The more layers of assumptions between the event and its actual impact on earnings, liquidity, interest rates or positioning, the less reliable the market reaction becomes. Markets don't trade the event itself; they trade its implications, expectations, and what's already priced in. The longer the chain of reasoning, the more uncertainty you introduce.

NIFTY has closed above the upper Bollinger Band five days in a row, and every one of those candles looked “overbought.” Range, squeeze, trend: this video walks through all three on the same chart.👇

News doesn’t move price. It moves price that’s already ready to move. Did LTCG really cause NIFTY’s 2,000-point rally? Or was price already sitting at demand, just waiting for an excuse? I’ve broken it down in this video 👉youtu.be/oNxsJ6rXgv4

Contrarian trading works beautifully in sideways markets. But when momentum kicks in, you'll keep looking for a reversal because fading the move worked so well the last few times. Remember, The market doesn't care what worked yesterday, and it certainly doesn't owe you a reversal today.

NIFTY and Bollinger Bands. If you understand the concept of volatility expansion, you probably already know what NOT to do here.

NIFTY at ATH by month-end? Let's take a poll. No diplomatic answers!