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C/o Nifty & Bank Nifty
Joined February 2020
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Dileep retweeted
Happy Diwali to you and your family 🪔
This year tested all of us: red days, hard trades, late nights at the charts. If you’re still here and still learning, that’s your biggest win.
Thank you for growing with me. This page is a family because of you.
Tonight, keep the screens off and sit with the people who stood by you. May your home be full of light, your heart full of peace, and your year full of green candles. ✨
Dileep retweeted
Muhurat trading: Many traders think buying in this session brings luck for the year. Here’s what 20 years of Nifty data (2006–2025) actually shows.
Win rate
15 out of 20 sessions closed green. The Diwali mood is usually positive.
Current streak
8 green sessions in a row, from 2018 to 2025.
Typical move
Only about +0.2% to +0.3%. Apart from one year, Nifty never moved more than 1% either way. Muhurat sessions are calm, not explosive.
Biggest gain
2008: +6.35%. It came right after the global crash, when markets were bouncing from deep lows. It’s an exception, not the pattern.
Worst session
2017: −0.63%. Even the bad days stayed small.
Latest session
2025: just +0.10%, the weakest gain in 8 years. The streak is still alive, but the momentum was thin.
Does it predict the year?
No. In 2022 Nifty gained 0.87% on Muhurat day, its best session in a decade, and then finished the next Samvat year around −1%.
Bottom line
Muhurat trading is a tradition, not a trading signal. Your process decides your year, not one festive hour.
Happy Diwali 🪔Your bet for Todays MUHURAT TRADING?👇
Dileep retweeted
I don't think big players care about every headline or event the way retail traders do. What matters is how directly that event impacts markets.
A direct cause-and-effect relationship matters more: A leads to B. The more layers of assumptions between the event and its actual impact on earnings, liquidity, interest rates or positioning, the less reliable the market reaction becomes.
Markets don't trade the event itself; they trade its implications, expectations, and what's already priced in. The longer the chain of reasoning, the more uncertainty you introduce.
Dileep retweeted
NIFTY has closed above the upper Bollinger Band five days in a row, and every one of those candles looked “overbought.”
Range, squeeze, trend: this video walks through all three on the same chart.👇
Dileep retweeted
News doesn’t move price. It moves price that’s already ready to move.
Did LTCG really cause NIFTY’s 2,000-point rally? Or was price already sitting at demand, just waiting for an excuse?
I’ve broken it down in this video 👉youtu.be/oNxsJ6rXgv4
Dileep retweeted
Contrarian trading works beautifully in sideways markets. But when momentum kicks in, you'll keep looking for a reversal because fading the move worked so well the last few times. Remember, The market doesn't care what worked yesterday, and it certainly doesn't owe you a reversal today.
Dileep retweeted
India VIX doesn't predict direction. It's the annualised volatility the Nifty options market is pricing for the next 30 days.
VIX closed at 15.5 on Monday. Divide by the square root of 12 and you get about 4.5%, the one standard deviation move traders are pricing over a month. At current levels that's about 1000 Nifty points either way.
It tells you how expensive protection is.
Dileep retweeted
నిజం తెలుసుకునే మార్గమే లేకపోవడం సరైనది కాదు.
నిందితులు చనిపోతే వారిపై ట్రయల్ ఆగిపోతుంది. అది చట్టం, అది సరైనదే కూడా. చనిపోయిన మనిషి తన వాదన చెప్పుకోలేడు, సాక్షులను ప్రశ్నించలేడు. కానీ నిందితులందరూ చనిపోయాక, నేరం ఎవరు చేశారో న్యాయస్థానంలో తేల్చే ప్రక్రియే మన చట్టంలో లేదు. దిశ కేసు దీనికి నిదర్శనం.
2019 నవంబర్ 27న హత్య జరిగింది. షాద్‌నగర్ పోలీస్ స్టేషన్‌లో క్రైమ్ నంబర్ 784/2019 నమోదైంది. నలుగురిని అరెస్టు చేశారు. చార్జిషీట్ పడకముందే, ట్రయల్ మొదలవకముందే, పోలీస్ కస్టడీలో ఉండగానే డిసెంబర్ 6న జరిగిన “ఎన్‌కౌంటర్”లో నలుగురూ చనిపోయారు.
సుప్రీంకోర్టు నియమించిన జస్టిస్ సిర్పూర్కర్ కమిషన్, అవి ఉద్దేశపూర్వక కాల్పులని తేల్చింది. 10 మంది పోలీసులపై హత్య కేసు పెట్టాలని సిఫార్సు చేసింది. నేర స్థలంలో దొరికిన వస్తువులు దిశవేనని కుటుంబంతో నిర్ధారించుకోకుండానే పోలీసులు ప్రకటించారని కూడా నమోదు చేసింది.
ఇప్పుడు మిగిలిన ప్రశ్నలు:
▪️ ఆ నలుగురే నేరం చేశారని ఏ కోర్టూ తేల్చలేదు. చట్టం దృష్టిలో వారు నిందితులు మాత్రమే, దోషులు కాదు.
▪️ మూల కేసులో ఫైనల్ రిపోర్ట్ దాఖలైందా? కోర్టు ఆమోదించిందా? బాధిత కుటుంబానికి నోటీసు ఇచ్చారా? పబ్లిక్ రికార్డులో వీటికి సమాధానం లేదు.
▪️ పోలీసుల రిపోర్టే చివరి మాట అయితే, ఆ రిపోర్ట్‌ను క్రాస్ ఎగ్జామిన్ చేసేది ఎవరు?
కేసును తిరిగి తెరవడానికి చట్టం అడ్డు చెప్పదు. హత్యకు కాలపరిమితి లేదు. కానీ మళ్లీ దర్యాప్తు చేయాల్సింది అదే పోలీసు వ్యవస్థ. ఆ పని చేస్తే, తాము చంపినవారు నిర్దోషులై ఉండొచ్చని తామే ఒప్పుకున్నట్టు అవుతుంది.
ఎన్‌కౌంటర్ నలుగురి ప్రాణాలనే కాదు, నిజాన్ని కూడా తీసేసింది. ఏడేళ్ల తర్వాత మన ముందు ఉన్న ప్రశ్న: దిశకు జరిగింది న్యాయమా, లేక న్యాయం లాంటి ఒక దృశ్యమా?
Dileep retweeted
Every chart you open has one price that acts as support, resistance AND a price magnet.
90% of price-action traders never mark it: the POC (Point of Control).
And there’s more than one type. Check this out 👉youtu.be/I1Jxlb5hjSQ
Dileep retweeted
NIFTY weekly ATM straddle (23000 CE + 23000 PE) closed at ₹232.
Most traders read that as “NIFTY will move at most 232 points by expiry.”
Wrong. ₹232 is the average move the market is pricing, not the maximum. Some weeks NIFTY moves 40 points, some weeks 450. In roughly 4 out of 10 weeks, it moves more than the straddle price.
Now look at what option writers did on Friday:
• 1.27 lakh fresh put OI at 23000 and 22900. They’re betting NIFTY won’t close below 22900.
• 62K fresh call OI at 23100 and 23200. They’re betting it won’t close above 23200.
That’s a box of just 300 points.
A straddle buyer needs NIFTY below 22768 or above 23232 to make money. The writers are betting it stays well inside that.
Either the straddle is overpriced, or the writers are too confident. Tuesday’s expiry will tell us.
Dileep retweeted
Went long expecting acceptance to the upside. Then the 30-min low broke, so I went short. Then NIFTY broke the first-hour high, and I lost whatever little trust I had left in the market. Exited, got fed up, and decided to stay away.
Now NIFTY is going up without me. At this point, I’m convinced the market is waiting for me to take a position just to do the opposite. I’m genuinely fed up.
