パンダ博士(旧Panda_GPT)

暴落はバーゲンセール 辛くなったらこれを見返しなさい

SpaceX and Tesla have prospered in Texas, because we were not constantly operating under an oppressive and extractive state government. And I need to be close to the factories, so that I can walk the floor in person. That’s why the first major SpaceX factory was in LA and first major Tesla factory was in SF Bay Area. As California became increasingly difficult, due to extreme taxes and overregulation, we moved our major domestic expansions and HQ to Texas.

BREAKING: Google’s parent Alphabet added another 3.85 million shares of SpaceX in Q3, its latest SEC filing shows. Alphabet held 555 million shares worth $83.7 billion as of Sept. 30. SpaceX alone made up nearly 95% of its reported stock portfolio. Google first put $900 million into SpaceX in January 2015. By the end of Q3, the stake was worth about 93 times Google’s original investment.

This is what a bubble looks like. The Dotcom index in the last post actually started in October 1995. Here is the corrected version starting from January 1995.

SpaceX has officially announced that it is currently targeting November 13th at 5:45 PM ET for Starship's 15th flight. Flight info: "This flight is planned to be the first to return both Starship and Super Heavy to the launch site for catch. If successful, this will mark the first full recovery of an orbital launch system and a breakthrough moment in making Starship a reliable, rapidly reusable rocket." • Flight will last more than 22 hours, completing approximately 14 orbits around Earth. • Starship will orbit at an altitude of approximately 275 km (171 miles). • First attempt to recover both Super Heavy and Starship at the launch site during the same mission. • First return-to-launch-site and catch attempt for a Super Heavy V3 booster. • Super Heavy will execute launch, ascent, stage separation, boostback burn, and return to Starbase for a tower catch. • Starship will deploy 26 Starlink V3 satellites into orbit before attempting its first return to Starbase and tower catch. • The 26 satellites will provide capacity equivalent to approximately 10 Falcon 9 launches carrying Starlink V2 Mini satellites. • Satellites will deploy antennas and solar arrays, establish radio and laser communications, and raise their orbits using onboard thrusters. • Satellites could begin serving customers within weeks of launch following successful on-orbit checkouts. • Three Starlink V3 satellites will carry cameras to inspect Starship's heatshield and transmit imagery to ground operators. • Starship's heatshield will feature improved tile retention, additional protection against plasma intrusion, and expanded use of curved tiles to reduce heating between tiles. • Starship will only attempt its return and catch if critical reentry, landing burn, and tower approach systems are confirmed healthy. • Multiple predetermined ocean deorbit locations and a passively safe suborbital trajectory provide contingency options. • A successful mission would mark the first complete recovery of an orbital launch system, a major milestone toward rapid reusability. More info: spacex.com/launches/starship…

SpaceX will attempt to catch both the Super Heavy booster and Starship on the upcoming flight. If both are successful, it will mark the first time that all parts of an orbital rocket return to Earth intact. This is the critical breakthrough needed to make life multiplanetary.

Wow. According to FundaAI, SpaceX has ordered 6,000 racks for 2027 just for space-based data centers. They’re planning to launch 1 GW into space!

AI 데이터센터 옆에 살면 24시간 내내 제트기 엔진 소리 들림 ㄷㄷ (소음 공해 레전드) 빅테크 AI 인프라 확장이 주민들 일상 뚝배기 깨는 중임. 미국 미시간주 다우아지악에서는 하이퍼스케일 데이터 시설이 집 바로 앞에서 24시간 내내 78데시벨로 돌아가서 주민들이 단체 소송 검. 100년 가까이 산 집도 있는데 기업 측 대응이 레전드인 게, 소음 줄일 생각은 안 하고 "꼬우면 집 팔고 나가라" 시전함 ㅋㅋ 이게 미시간 한 곳만의 문제가 아님 • 마이크로소프트 $MSFT 도 위스콘신에서 데이터센터 경계선 2.4km 밖까지 소음 울려서 집단소송 처맞는 중. • 버지니아주는 데이터센터 3분의 1이 주택가 60미터 이내에 붙어있음. • 수천 대 서버 팬 소음만 96데시벨이고 디젤 비상 발전기 돌리면 105데시벨 찍힘. 머리 위로 제트기 지나가는 수준임 🤯 • 두통, 구토, 불면증 호소는 기본이고 주변 집값은 최대 20%까지 떡락함. 오레곤 물 부족, 조지아 지하수 고갈, 루이지애나 전기요금 폭탄, 캘리포니아 하천수 논란에 이어서 이제는 미시간·위스콘신 소음 지옥까지 터짐. 처음에 프로젝트 인가받을 때는 핑크빛 장밋빛으로 포장해놓고 실상은 민폐 종합세트임. 밀폐형 냉각이랑 방음벽 제대로 설치하면 소음 대부분 잡히는데, 카펙스(CAPEX) 더 들어간다고 싹 스킵해버리고 그 비용을 주민들 수면권이랑 집값으로 때우는 중임. 결국 AI 인프라 확장 속도가 빨라질수록 소음·전력·용수 환경 규제랑 주민 반발 리스크가 빅테크들 발목 제대로 잡을 예정임. "Not financial advice"

HISTORIC CRASH IN AI MOMENTUM. Morgan Stanley’s U.S. TMT Momentum Factor has now collapsed 62% from its highs. Even more remarkable, the factor has recorded 65 daily moves exceeding 5% in absolute terms this year, nearly matching the 70 such moves recorded during the ENTIRE 1999–2001 dot-com boom and bust. These are not ordinary moves. Absolutely historic volatility and destruction in Momentum.

Texas Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa: “It is not that I hate data centers. I hate the way they are taking advantage of Texas” Asked whether data centers still have a future in Texas: HINOJOSA: “Right. Well, we have always been a pro-business state in Texas. But what changes now with me as governor is it has to be a partnership that benefits Texans. And right now what has happened is data centers have moved into mostly rural communities and there are no rules and laws to protect Texans and Texans are being taken advantage of. So the difference is we will have laws to protect Texans and we need to stop what we’re doing with data centers until we have those protections. We can have a strong economy, strong industry and protections for the people of Texas. Those things are not mutually exclusive, and I’ll make sure as governor I lead to ensure that that happens.” TAPPER: “So you’re not ruling out that data centers will be able to be built in Texas, it’s just you want there to be regulations to protect communities, is that right?” HINOJOSA: “And that communities have a seat at the table to decide if and how these data centers come into their communities. Texas is like a country. We are so diverse in all the ways. Different communities have different needs. And those communities have to be able to walk away from the table to leverage what they need for their community. So absolutely, we need to make sure they are partners in this effort. And that has always been my position. It is not that I hate data centers. I hate the way they are taking advantage of Texas. And that stops when I’m governor.”

先物が反発

SoftBank is defaulting on their turbine orders

AIに何回か聞いているが、底である確率が50%を超えた。少しずつ買い始めようかな？来週も買うだろうけど。

やばい今年は2018年型のクリスマスショックになりそう 追証 損切り マージンコール 強制決済

Elon Musk has officially announced that Tesla will be discontinuing Cybertruck production in mid-2027. Considering Tesla can make many times more Cybercabs than Cybertrucks in that space, this move makes financial sense. Tesla sold ~8k Cybertrucks in Q3. The future of Tesla is autonomy, robots and energy.

Retail investors are now starting to dump some of the same AI stocks that hedge funds have been aggressively cutting exposure to and this could create even more selling pressure across the semiconductor sector. According to Vanda Research, stocks that were among Situational Awareness's largest holdings back in June are now experiencing significant retail selling. What's interesting is that throughout October, retail investors were actually buying these names aggressively, with some days seeing more than $100 million in net inflows, even as semiconductor stocks were under pressure. But that behavior is now starting to reverse. The latest data shows roughly $100 million in net retail selling across this basket, suggesting that some of the investors who were buying the dip just a few weeks ago are now starting to throw in the towel. And this is where things could get ugly. One of the biggest reasons AI and semiconductor stocks have held up relatively well during previous corrections is because retail investors have consistently stepped in to buy whenever institutional investors reduced their exposure. But now we're potentially seeing both groups selling at the same time. Keep in mind that hedge funds have already been reducing exposure to crowded AI trades following a difficult October. If retail investors also begin pulling back, that removes another important source of buying pressure, making it much harder for these stocks to stabilize. However, I also think there's a potential bullish argument here. If we're starting to see retail capitulation, it could mean that some of the weaker hands are finally being shaken out. Historically, periods of aggressive selling can sometimes precede strong recoveries, especially when the underlying fundamentals haven't deteriorated nearly as much as stock prices suggest. I still don't think the broader AI investment thesis has fundamentally changed. Hyperscalers are continuing to invest heavily in infrastructure, demand for compute isn't suddenly disappearing, and the long term need for semiconductors, memory, networking, and power remains substantial. To me, the bigger issue right now is positioning rather than fundamentals. We need selling pressure to ease, retail investors to regain confidence, and more importantly, hedge funds to start rebuilding their AI exposure. Until that happens, I wouldn't be surprised to see continued volatility across some of the most crowded AI names.

昨夜のNASDAQの下落幅は「歴代1位」だったんですね（指数が上昇した中で下落幅で見る意味はないのは理解しつつ）。データで見ると色々と面白い。 ・下落率・下落幅：-6.36%（-1,807.36ポイント） ■ 歴代ランキング（1985年1月算出開始・約10,530営業日中） ・下落幅：歴代1位 ・下落率（%）：歴代33位 ■ 歴代下落率 TOP10（すべて -8.5%以上） 1. -15.08%（1987/10/19）：ブラックマンデー 2. -12.19%（2020/03/16）：コロナ・ショック 3. -10.52%（2000/04/14）：ITバブル崩壊 4. -10.52%（2008/09/29）：リーマン・ショック 5. -10.22%（1987/10/26）：ブラックマンデー余震 6. -9.84%（1987/10/20）：ブラックマンデー翌日 7. -9.27%（2020/03/12）：コロナ・ショック 8. -9.22%（2008/12/01）：リーマン・ショック 9. -8.97%（2008/10/15）：リーマン・ショック 10. -8.56%（2000/04/03）：ITバブル崩壊 ... 33. -6.36%（2026/11/05）：★今回 ... ■ 昨夜の下落の発生確率 ・上位何%の下落か：全営業日の上位 約0.3%（下落した日だけでは上位 約0.7%） ・発生確率（実績）：約0.31%（単純平均で約1年3〜4ヶ月に1回 / 約320営業日に1回） ・日次標準偏差の約4.2σに相当（片側確率 約0.001335%、約300年に1回）。※正規分布の理論値よりはるかに高頻度で起きる「ファットテール」の典型例